Topic: Future Hash Rate Poll 1/2013 (Read 3823 times)

Jally should be profitable if the difficulty goes that high... just not quickly...

The line I quoted by BFL_Josh was on the 10-08-2012

And you are right, only bfl, but dont forget its the bulk of it.

please take into consideration that not everyone bought GPU for mining, there is a lot of people who bought GPU for common usage and use them also for mining..

in case of 676Th hashrate Ebay will be full of Jalapenos as soon as their owners realize that they will mine nothing with them even the 60Gh Single is non-profitable in this case..

b.

Yeah that statement happened before the increase in the speed was announced, plus there is no time frame and no new information.
Plus only BFL...

~25 TH = ~$14.7 million invested in video cards.

IF that $14.7 Million was re-invested in ASICs at a 1:1 ratio

The new network Hash Rate would be 676 Th = 27x

Hi

Here I am quoting Josh from BFL

"My napkin calculations indicate a less than 10x increase in difficulty due to BFL hardware sold so far."

I his estimations on sales numbers, or is he giving a low estimation to increase sales numbers, I dont know!

Keeping it simple as I can.
IMHO

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-sc-pre-order-information-monarch-orders-too-89685

Approx 2500 orders there will be more orders as time goes on of course but then every order number doesn't = an actual unit.

I just assumed the SC single per order = 40Ghash

So I'm gonna give it a range

1250-3000 orders

50 Thash -> 120Thash  4-10X difficulty

Personally I think most GPUs will become unprofitable at the lower end of that threshold and I'm not sure how many FPGAs are out there so I'd say -80% of the current hash rate based on GPUs will dissolve. So +/- on that by 20%

As for Shipping times: BFL gave themselves till OCT +2 months and according to our records they are about two weeks slower than they say 4-6 weeks = 6-8 weeks.

I'd say the very first shipments for the first month of orders will start shipping last week of Sept until as late as the start of the new year. (Oct + 2 months plus "awe screw it it's only two more weeks late" factor)
There's roughly 2000 orders for the first month that technically need to be shipped by the end of that period. But If they get the first batch out the door close to their stated targets then would the guys further down the order list really ask for their money back at that point?

So I'm thinking
4-10X difficulty increase (+/- 20% Hash) between Oct 2012 and Feb 2013

But what happens over the following Six months should be interesting...
If you just tripled your return on your initial BFL product by being an early adopter wouldn't it make sense to buy MORE while the difficulty is low so that when things stabilize you'll have a bigger slice of the pie?

I think the graph of total hash power will look surprisingly similar to the above. Spike, small dip, flatten out with easy rise.

Inaba has already confirmed that it'll be well under 10x for BFL orders.

Predictions on where things will go within 12 months sit at around 10-15x max. My own calculations last month put it around 7x for the first 3 months or so.

it is all estimate because it all has to be calculated on the theory that asic systems bring what is promised [...]

[...] and they could just suddenly adjust there specs 2 mnd before shipments ... nobody knows.

Already know. The majority of those orders are fakes or incomplete. They can't be used to create an accurate model of future hash rates.

Any backing behind your estimate, or is it just a hunch?

Don't forget the ASIC order #'s started around ~1600. My estimate is the total network hashrate will be around 400TH/s by Jan 2013.

I read your paper, it was very good. I came up with a similar number in August, 8x, but for slightly different reasons. I just can't find the link where I posted it....

I wonder if Inaba made his calculations of "under 10x" before or after he knew of the final specs...