I did some quick figuring,
of the first ~200 order numbers about ~50 were reported. (ignoring dates only paying attention to order numbers ~1650- ~1850)
So assuming that 100% of those 200 order #s were actually turned in to ASIC orders AND reported you'd have a lower limit of 4:1 ratio of order numbers to actual orders...
Of course it's hard to believe that would continue across the entire order list.
However it may serve as a possible lower limit to all this guesstimation.
so 1/4 of ~20x is of course ~5x increase.
So ~5x increase to ~20x seems to be a fairly reasonable possibility.
Thoughts? data?
of the first ~200 order numbers about ~50 were reported. (ignoring dates only paying attention to order numbers ~1650- ~1850)
So assuming that 100% of those 200 order #s were actually turned in to ASIC orders AND reported you'd have a lower limit of 4:1 ratio of order numbers to actual orders...
Of course it's hard to believe that would continue across the entire order list.
However it may serve as a possible lower limit to all this guesstimation.
so 1/4 of ~20x is of course ~5x increase.
So ~5x increase to ~20x seems to be a fairly reasonable possibility.
Thoughts? data?
Inaba has already confirmed that it'll be well under 10x for BFL orders.
Predictions on where things will go within 12 months sit at around 10-15x max. My own calculations last month put it around 7x for the first 3 months or so.
my mistake. Yes the block reward will be at 25 by then... guess I'll have to half those estimates...
