Topic: Gambler's fallacy, what do you think? - page 5. (Read 5936 times)

You're touching the concepts of luck and streak here and these are not mathematical.
People are not only ones and zeroes, if it was like that nobody would step out of line and people wouldn't believe in prophecies and the supernatural.

Usually people go further into the loss because they feel it's more unlikely for a 50% loss to occur many times in a row, which is true.

In theory, the next result is independent of previous result.
Especially in dice games, the streak can continue until you lose all your bankroll. This is the reason why martingale is flawed.

If something has a 50% chance of happening, it has a 50% chance of happening, what has happened beforehand makes no difference.

Well fallacy or not, I do it because I don't see any other way of betting, if you're playing at 2x and you're aiming for above 50, keep going at it after several below 50 rolls seems like the only logical thing to do because it has to hit sometimes.

You would only beat the casino if it had no max bet but pretty much all the casinos do have a max bet

I beleive in ebating the casion yo will need its bankroll plus another 35 percent more funds, to truly beat the house.

yes andits very unlikely to loose many times in a row but its yet not impossible.

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

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That would be the chances of getting 10.000 heads in a row if im not mistaken

Rrrright...

I made about 50X of my deposit 

So my principal was about 0.2btc, it happened 1 year ago.

And this strategy is a gamble guru taught me, he earned XXX btc from dice.     You can try it 

In general, we can see some guys get 10 or more loss streak by autobet because they don't change luck. Very sad. They should use my strategy.

Well Gambler's Fallacy is derived from the law of large numbers. Of course if you flip a coin 10,000 times with all heads, the next flip is still a 50/50 but the odds of that happening are really low.

Any strategy is risky in luck based games. What was your original deposit that helped you earn 10 BTC?

If I were you, I would bet 7 when it hit 7 twice.

It is called luck, I usually use this strategies in dice, if I win, I would bet the same bet, if I lose, I bet the opposite.

I have successfully used this method to earn 10btc from dice within 1 week. 

Does not exist. Please look up variance or playing on a rigged site. The Gambler's Fallacy statement itself is correct.

It's called, what You wrote is rigging the game.
Because the rules are not like that.

You probably forgot to mention that there is not 50% ?
There is also need for each bet to pay %.    

This % You didn't just slowly and takes money from the man who makes a bet.

Although I can offer to change the conditions of the game.
Let the tote asks first what falls combination. I make my own.
And then let himself throws a coin until then - until someone falls ?

It's called a fallacy for a reason. According to it, people believe that chances of something happening again become are reducing as it repeats while it's just the win/loss chances that should be taken into account individually for each bet.

But anyway, people shouldn't rely on my explaination, that's why I posted a wikipedia link.

It absolutely exists; I lost almost all my balance because of that. twice now.

I got too many 7s in roulettts and lost too a few days ago.(lucky this one was a bonus code)


Edit: You got that 'Gambler's fallacy says that' part wrong. It is just the opposite.