Gambling experience - max negative times in row - page 3.

tspacepilot

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1081

I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.

Quote from: a1choi on May 15, 2015, 01:19:21 AM

before JD shut down the first time, Doog did some stats on longest losing and winning streak at 49.5%.

I believe loses was as big as 32 in a row, and wins was 19 or 20.. i'm not 100% sure of the stats. its in the old JD thread somewhere.

Remember that this isnt simple 50/50. at 49.5/50.5, the max loss streaks will be longer than the max win streaks. (thus you can see the house edge in action, sortof)

RIght, that's actually an interesting point, a1choi, the longer the streak you're multiplying out, the more you're going to see that divergence between wins vs. losses multiplied out and getting bigger. Ie, as you say, you can observe the house edge in action.

XinXan

hero member

Activity: 1064

Merit: 505

Quote from: skmall29 on May 14, 2015, 08:37:18 PM

Quote from: bitbaby on May 14, 2015, 08:01:49 PM

I have myself experienced 26 reds in a row while martingaling on 2x. Although it seems impossible that that would happen but it does. Every roll is independent from each other and has the same probability, so you can have 30 reds in a row but that does not mean that 31st roll will be green, it may very well be red again.

That is why it is called gambling and it does depends on your luck. So just play with only the money you can afford to lose and never chase losses.

you can really cover upto 26 lose in a row? that would be a lot even you start with 1 satoshi base bet you would reach yoy .65btc

Its actually not that much, the 26 bet would be: 0.33554432 BTC wich is not that big (starting with 1 bet satoshi) In total yea it would be around 0.5 but its still not that much, the only problem betting so low is that you need for example, to make 0.01 profit, 2.000.000 bets in total, even with a bot it would take you soo loong that is not worth it.

a1choi

sr. member

Activity: 323

Merit: 254

before JD shut down the first time, Doog did some stats on longest losing and winning streak at 49.5%.

I believe loses was as big as 32 in a row, and wins was 19 or 20.. i'm not 100% sure of the stats. its in the old JD thread somewhere.

Remember that this isnt simple 50/50. at 49.5/50.5, the max loss streaks will be longer than the max win streaks. (thus you can see the house edge in action, sortof)

Ingatqhvq

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

2000 dogs is only worth no more than 1mbtc, you can try more times may be you can find the rule.

fullypak

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1005

Everyone who has a bad gambling problem has to hit bottom before they can begin recovery. Everyone's bottom is different. When it hits, it is unforgettable

bitbaby

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: skmall29 on May 14, 2015, 08:37:18 PM

Quote from: bitbaby on May 14, 2015, 08:01:49 PM

I have myself experienced 26 reds in a row while martingaling on 2x. Although it seems impossible that that would happen but it does. Every roll is independent from each other and has the same probability, so you can have 30 reds in a row but that does not mean that 31st roll will be green, it may very well be red again.

That is why it is called gambling and it does depends on your luck. So just play with only the money you can afford to lose and never chase losses.

you can really cover upto 26 lose in a row? that would be a lot even you start with 1 satoshi base bet you would reach yoy .65btc

Doge, base bet 0.001

I am not foolish enough to try martingale with BTC.

skmall29

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: bitbaby on May 14, 2015, 08:01:49 PM

I have myself experienced 26 reds in a row while martingaling on 2x. Although it seems impossible that that would happen but it does. Every roll is independent from each other and has the same probability, so you can have 30 reds in a row but that does not mean that 31st roll will be green, it may very well be red again.

That is why it is called gambling and it does depends on your luck. So just play with only the money you can afford to lose and never chase losses.

you can really cover upto 26 lose in a row? that would be a lot even you start with 1 satoshi base bet you would reach yoy .65btc

tspacepilot

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1081

I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.

Quote from: bitbaby on May 14, 2015, 08:01:49 PM

I have myself experienced 26 reds in a row while martingaling on 2x. Although it seems impossible that that would happen but it does. Every roll is independent from each other and has the same probability, so you can have 30 reds in a row but that does not mean that 31st roll will be green, it may very well be red again.

That is why it is called gambling and it does depends on your luck. So just play with only the money you can afford to lose and never chase losses.

It's because in normal language we often conflate "impossible" with extremely improbable. Now, with computers and such that do so many operations per second, we can even find ourselves in these strangely improbable positions.

bitbaby

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

I have myself experienced 26 reds in a row while martingaling on 2x. Although it seems impossible that that would happen but it does. Every roll is independent from each other and has the same probability, so you can have 30 reds in a row but that does not mean that 31st roll will be green, it may very well be red again.

That is why it is called gambling and it does depends on your luck. So just play with only the money you can afford to lose and never chase losses.

kattekop

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

One really shouldn't gamble, just ever. You're playing against 'invoke GetTickCount' from Windows (random number generator), and it's really not the way to go.
Best of luck to you.

XinXan

hero member

Activity: 1064

Merit: 505

Quote from: cinder on May 11, 2015, 11:19:13 PM

Quote from: alex21btc on May 11, 2015, 12:53:19 PM

I just testing martingale gambling method.

This is my experience:
After 2 days of gambling I collected 1500 Dogecoins
After 3 days of gambling I lost about 2000 Dogecoins

So I lost because, I have 20x negative times in row.
I expected about 18x or 19x.

Anyway, can anybody tell me what is max negative times in row?
Anybody have same expirience?

Martingale has proven to never work in the long term.

No shit, no strategy works in the long term thats why casinos win, in the short term anything can work as long as you have luck, you could very well start betting and make 30 loses in a row in your first 30 bets

XinXan

hero member

Activity: 1064

Merit: 505

Quote from: Dogtanian on May 11, 2015, 02:24:52 PM

Quote from: XinXan on May 11, 2015, 02:02:13 PM

30 loses in a row is 1 in a billion chance, there are reports of a little bit more but not much more since no one would have enough bankroll to sustain more than 40 loses in a row even if you start with 1 satoshi bet

So how safe would you be by using enough funds to ensure you can do 30 rolls or a little over? I hit a little over 20 losses in a row a few times back when I first got into bitcoin and was using the dice sites. I won quite a bit using martin gale but then kept going and lost so then I quit haha.

You need about 10 BTC to be able to survive the 30th consecutive loss if you started with 1 satoshi bet. The problem with starting with such a low bettig amount is that you need to bet a lot and i mean A LOT, for example in order to have a profit of 0.01 btc you would need 2 million bets wich is insane

cinder

full member

Activity: 153

Merit: 100

Quote from: alex21btc on May 11, 2015, 12:53:19 PM

I just testing martingale gambling method.

This is my experience:
After 2 days of gambling I collected 1500 Dogecoins
After 3 days of gambling I lost about 2000 Dogecoins

So I lost because, I have 20x negative times in row.
I expected about 18x or 19x.

Anyway, can anybody tell me what is max negative times in row?
Anybody have same expirience?

Martingale has proven to never work in the long term.

unholycactus

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1024

Read up on gambler's ruin. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

House edge and the fact that you have a limited bankroll will never make you a winning player in the long run, even if you're using Martingale bets.

monbux

legendary

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1029

Quote from: alex21btc on May 11, 2015, 12:53:19 PM

I just testing martingale gambling method.

This is my experience:
After 2 days of gambling I collected 1500 Dogecoins
After 3 days of gambling I lost about 2000 Dogecoins

So I lost because, I have 20x negative times in row.
I expected about 18x or 19x.

Anyway, can anybody tell me what is max negative times in row?
Anybody have same expirience?

There should be no max negative, just as there are no max positives. Gambling is gambling, you need to expect to lose.
Never gamble what you can't afford to lose.

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

When gambling on these site's realize they are operating chances are in countries that will host gambling websites, not US and some others that they would have to comply to laws (and probley could not even get open legally).

They are free to set their OWN odds. So .... no regulation and they set their own odds. They might be turning it up and down you don't know.

Anyways there is no max you could lose, you could lose it all. And the house always wins, especially when they program their own rules.

tspacepilot

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1081

I may write code in exchange for bitcoins.

There are a lot of threads on this topic if you look around in the gambling section. In the end, the deal is that the more you play, the more likely you are to approach the long-term expected value for the game you're playing. Because of house-edge, this is almost always negative. Gambling is fun but you shouldn't hope to defeat the dice-house by rolling thousands of times.

Dogtanian

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: XinXan on May 11, 2015, 02:02:13 PM

30 loses in a row is 1 in a billion chance, there are reports of a little bit more but not much more since no one would have enough bankroll to sustain more than 40 loses in a row even if you start with 1 satoshi bet

So how safe would you be by using enough funds to ensure you can do 30 rolls or a little over? I hit a little over 20 losses in a row a few times back when I first got into bitcoin and was using the dice sites. I won quite a bit using martin gale but then kept going and lost so then I quit haha.

XinXan

hero member

Activity: 1064

Merit: 505

30 loses in a row is 1 in a billion chance, there are reports of a little bit more but not much more since no one would have enough bankroll to sustain more than 40 loses in a row even if you start with 1 satoshi bet

Evil Steve

newbie

Activity: 25

Merit: 0

Quote from: alex21btc on May 11, 2015, 12:53:19 PM

I just testing martingale gambling method.

This is my experience:
After 2 days of gambling I collected 1500 Dogecoins
After 3 days of gambling I lost about 2000 Dogecoins

So I lost because, I have 20x negative times in row.
I expected about 18x or 19x.

Anyway, can anybody tell me what is max negative times in row?
Anybody have same expirience?

What bank roll did you start with? 1500 or something less? Martingale is dangerous because it can easily suck you in. Once you start you'll feel like you can't lose because you always cover you last bets... that is until you hit that losing streak and you lose your bankroll in seconds.

Topic: Gambling experience - max negative times in row - page 3. (Read 3589 times)