Gambling on events, where do you draw the line? - page 3.

passwordnow

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

No.
And I give benefit of the doubt for the volume that these bets have. Maybe these people doesn't really look forward for these things to happen but they merely want to make some money. But with all of the odd kind of bets, these are one of those. These clashes, wars, nuclear weapons and other kinds of warfare. Come on, polymarket should do better but we might see more odd bets from them. Presidential and other electoral bets are totally fine but if they're going this far. I don't know if these bets are even regulated, they probably are but they are making people think of these subjects to come and happen.

Kasabus

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Quote from: CryptoHeadlineNews on December 07, 2024, 05:20:10 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

I'm sure the main purpose and primary reason for gambling is to make profit, right? And as such, if the answer is "Yes", then I will definitely go for the dollar, rather than a mere candidate I love and 100% sure woundn't win the election, base on certain factors best known to me. Because as a gambler, our primary aim should always be to chase the profit in a more mature and calculative way, rather than involving emotions over things you are sure will yield no fruitful results.

If you enter gambling, rest assured all you want is profits, just like the majority is. And when it comes to betting, where there is higher odds for winning, I’ll go for it. Gambling is not about who your friends or enemies are, but it’s on how you analyze the outcome of your bets through making good assessment, aside from getting lucky which is the topmost.

o48o

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

That's way too grim for my taste. I understand for people gambling on anything, but imagine hoping for nuclear weapon detonating, because you put your money into it. Or being financially incentivized enough to hope for military conflicts between countries.

One could argue that it could be comfort money if something bad happens, but even if someone would fear something bad happening, how is money a silver lining in that? That's distasteful and macabre.

I know that some people like arms dealers enjoy from actual war profits by selling guns, but even those people can argue that someone would sell the guns to them anyway. People who bet money on it are just hoping for it to happen.

GxSTxV

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This is getting more popular among gamblers especially with the rise in betting volumes on such events. Honestly, if I hadnt decide to quit gambling, I may have been tempted to give it a try. Betting on political or global events have a different kind of fun as it is less about stats and scores, just more about understanding human behavior and geopolitical moves of governments or populations. It’s almost like a higher stakes strategy game compared to regular sports events.

I remember engaging in discussions about the US elections, it's about if you would bet on the candidate you dislike, just because Im sure he will win, even if it’s against the real interest away of gambling.
Now, with Polymarket’s offers, the stakes feel very tempting for everyone, but I will keep my decision to not set a bet again any sooner.

Perfectbaby

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Quote from: Miles2006 on December 08, 2024, 04:41:34 PM

Quote from: Perfectbaby on December 07, 2024, 04:59:07 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

I would go for the dollar as a gambler then vote for whom I think is capable of ruling. Let me say if I were to be USA citizen with my card I would go vote for whom I think is credible enough to lead the nation, while in the gambling site I would go place bet to have my winnings.

I think this same thing is applicable to emotions; when you are gambling with emotions it makes you go against your choice. For instance you have two teams because you are a fan of team A you go give winning to Team A, knowing too well that Team B gonna win but due to emotion and a die-hard fan you wouldn't want to messed up with you club therefore betting against the winning party in order to prioritize your clubs. To me this is not gambling rather just swinging and toiling with emotions.

I thought as much gambling for the money of course everyone will do same but, this is hard seeing it’s not so easy. For example populated number of people still gambled against Donald Trump, so you actually believe they knew the end result and still went ahead to gamble. If considering team match it’s different because we all know the strength of different teams when playing, prediction in terms of election seems difficult although if the chances is clear because I have seen situations like this. The question needs more thinking, personally I will not love to vote for whom will not win even if it’s so competitive just ignore.

You know during time for elections and when casting my vote I don't go for the money physically because I would vote accordingly to whom would be capable, to rule whom I think can deliver the people and not by joining the populace to cast vote because I know he will wins and even if he does it doesn't give good representation to the people and not delivering the entire nation, it makes no sense voting for such because we felt such person would win because the entire populace voting him. But if is in gambling or predictions in site I would vote for him know too well that I am only going for the money involved but physically I know he isn't qualified of ruling the nation.

boyptc

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on December 08, 2024, 04:12:26 PM

Quote from: boyptc on December 08, 2024, 03:53:37 PM

I'm good with sports and other hobbies that I like to bet but not with those type of things that are brutal and all about conquering territories.

It's a pity that the earth is dying slowly and time ain't waiting for no form of rehabilitations (which in anycase,humans can't perform) but humans are fighting to quicken the process...

I guess if it's written in the history books that these events have been happening, and we believe that history repeats itself.

Well, we're on the process of witnessing on how it repeats itself. It's very sad that even the strongest countries can't do anything with that. It's all about union and relationship.

But because of many factors like religion, traditions and stand into matters, there's always a division that we'll see until the end of this world.

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

I have seen some events on Polymarket the last time I check and immediately, the actions of FBI pick up of the founder was justified in my opinion. I didn't even know people would really bet on such things, this is why it's not everything we have to take as propaganda, this is really bad and the founder or the team has to set some ground rules because tell me, who enjoy betting on people's blood and enjoy killings just because they want to make money? Decentralized gambling platform my foot.

When people start war, most often it's people who do nothing or knows something about it fee the impact and lose life's with properties. There is nothing good with bombing and anything related to life no matter your rsce, religions and ethnic differences. What of people that innocent and comprised to be where they don't want to be? I think the people that put money in those events are the crazy people that shouldn't have never existed in this life, what happened to humanity.

Miles2006

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Quote from: Perfectbaby on December 07, 2024, 04:59:07 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

I would go for the dollar as a gambler then vote for whom I think is capable of ruling. Let me say if I were to be USA citizen with my card I would go vote for whom I think is credible enough to lead the nation, while in the gambling site I would go place bet to have my winnings.

I think this same thing is applicable to emotions; when you are gambling with emotions it makes you go against your choice. For instance you have two teams because you are a fan of team A you go give winning to Team A, knowing too well that Team B gonna win but due to emotion and a die-hard fan you wouldn't want to messed up with you club therefore betting against the winning party in order to prioritize your clubs. To me this is not gambling rather just swinging and toiling with emotions.

I thought as much gambling for the money of course everyone will do same but, this is hard seeing it’s not so easy. For example populated number of people still gambled against Donald Trump, so you actually believe they knew the end result and still went ahead to gamble. If considering team match it’s different because we all know the strength of different teams when playing, prediction in terms of election seems difficult although if the chances is clear because I have seen situations like this. The question needs more thinking, personally I will not love to vote for whom will not win even if it’s so competitive just ignore.

Hispo

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Quote from: Alphakilo on December 08, 2024, 04:22:29 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

Would you try to make money on this?

We are back to the Gladiator arena again but this time we are hiding behind technology. There's no difference despite the technological barrier.

Human beings don't change, do we? We are no different from people from the olden days in the arena betting on prisoners to fight to the death or be eaten by wild beasts.

If this is the only way to make money, then I'd rather starve to death so that I can meet my maker without shame.

Ironically, it is quite difficult to try to make money nowadays without you contributing to the war machine and the gears of war which take the life of millions of innocent people each year. Sure, you can directly try to make money while betting on wars and political escalations in the middle east, but is it really too different from investing in tech companies through stocks or especulating on the price of gold or oil in order to profit off it? after all, technological companies like Apple and Microsoft are makers of components to war machines used by Israel and also by the United States, together with their allies?
People buying and selling stocks for a profits are not better than those directly wagering on the death of people from Lebanon or the Gaza strip. Even companies which at first seem to be completely unrelated to war and the western military, have their one of their fingers in the pie of warmongering.
It is sad, but it is the reality we have chosen to live in...

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

As for your question, would I try to make money from it? Yes!

Letting someone else bet is not going to help the world become a better or worse place, if I don't bet out of some belief, someone else will.

Also, the advantage of these bets is that they are in a completely different context than traditional sports betting or even political betting where the results are somewhat predictable (with the exception of the last one for US President where almost everything happened). These events are largely unpredictable and that is where the real money is. The thrill of betting on such high stakes events, despite their murky nature, is in the potential for massive payouts.

We must remember that in the world of betting the most lucrative opportunities are those that "lurk" on the edge of the abyss and therefore this is not a game for the risk averse, but rather for those who embrace chaos... then the rewards can be extraordinary.

Ok... I was being ironic... the truth is that this type of bet is not my thing, but the idea I left above is real. And I believe that is how those who bet on these events feel.

Alphakilo

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

Would you try to make money on this?

We are back to the Gladiator arena again but this time we are hiding behind technology. There's no difference despite the technological barrier.

Human beings don't change, do we? We are no different from people from the olden days in the arena betting on prisoners to fight to the death or be eaten by wild beasts.

If this is the only way to make money, then I'd rather starve to death so that I can meet my maker without shame.

Sandra_hakeem

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 05:38:16 PM

It was retardio, and polymarket is soft compared to what is on this site:
https://retardio.casino/event/2939 - Will Elon Musk impregnate Tiffany Fong?

Casinos have evolved in the most unpredictable pattern and almost everything seems to be subject to prediction... Gone are the days we'll think of the results in our minds alone. The most hilarious part of this is that people will wager their money ok anything -- as long as an option is provided, they're in..

Quote from: boyptc on December 08, 2024, 03:53:37 PM

I'm good with sports and other hobbies that I like to bet but not with those type of things that are brutal and all about conquering territories.

It's a pity that the earth is dying slowly and time ain't waiting for no form of rehabilitations (which in anycase,humans can't perform) but humans are fighting to quicken the process...

How long will this persist? Why are humans always on a quest of killing and subjugating, thereby endangering & claiming millions of lives and properties all the time? Sadly, we are the odd ones on earth. On the other hand, the rest of us have seen enough of this happenings so, we just find a way to get along with it? By trying to make some few bucks off of it? It is what it is.

boyptc

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It doesn't look fun at all. I will skip those type of bets. While there is some fun with political events like the elections.

But I don't see any fun and even if I can make money if on the other side of the world, there's a fact that these events could trigger death of many innocent people.

I'm good with sports and other hobbies that I like to bet but not with those type of things that are brutal and all about conquering territories.

nimogsm

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I am more into sports events, Dancing on bones is not acceptable for me. Of course, in everyday life we discuss what is happening on the world stage, but it has never occurred to me to place a bet on an event, for example, the use of a nuclear strike, it is somehow wild. But since the world is ruled by money, I am not surprised that such bets are interesting to someone.

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Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

We recently had endless discussions about elections in the US, while most of it was just about politics and less about actually betting, it did spark an interesting question in my mind at that time, and that was, would you bet on the guy that you don't like and you voted against because you know your candidate would lose? So keep your vote, but go for the $?

At that time I abandoned the idea of creating such a topic cause the whole situation on the forum was already bad enough, tuning those topics into 4 chan material but with the current events and current "offers" on polymarket, from the Tyson match to actual war I'm curious, what kind of bets are simply too much for you?

Here are a few examples from Polymarket right now, from bad to worse:

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? $408,982 Vol.
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? $750,767 Vol.
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$653,593 Vol.
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? $3,445,778 Vol

Would you try to make money on this?

I don't think this is a good way to make money as you have to be an expert in geo-politics which many gamblers I assume simply are not. That way I would refrain from betting on such events as I know it is a 50-50 outcome, it either happens or don't happen I would still not risk my money onto this, there are much more classic ways to gamble. This is mostly for people who like adrenaline, who like to try something new and I even doubt people from the countries being at war would like to bet on such events, even the countries winning the wars although in wars there are no real winners, everybody is a loser.

stompix

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Quote from: Slow death on December 07, 2024, 06:49:51 PM

Quote from: stompix on December 07, 2024, 04:40:55 PM

~

I learned early on that one should not place feelings in gambling. That is why if someone wants to bet on one of these options, that person must leave feelings aside, and cannot think about how many lives will be lost or not. One must look at the facts at that moment. If there is a lot of news talking about a possible Israeli invasion of Syria, if there are many analysts talking about this possibility, if there are members of the Israeli government talking about this possibility and the person realizes that there is a high probability of this invasion happening, then I think the person can bet. But that does not mean that the person is in favor of this invasion. The person is just following the odds. Now if you asked me whether I would bet or not, my answer is that I wouldn't bet on any of these options.

Well, here is the thing, betting for a team and cheering for that doesn't have further implications, Atalanta beating Milan will not trigger anything else, but if you bet on an invasion or a nuclear war, you have to be cheering for it to happen in order for you to win, right? So, how does this work from a moral point of view? Cause you can't deny being a supporter while you're praying it happens!

But more importantly, what happens when a group buys some of those options for 0.01 cents and decides to fire a rocket at a country to start that war for them to make x10 000 on that bet? Or they kill a person since they bought 'NO' options in a political race?

Mia Chloe

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Quote from: pawanjain on December 08, 2024, 08:22:30 AM

It really depends on the individuals preference doesn't it?
If the person is someone who wants to gamble and go for the money then they won't hesitate whether it's the person they voted for or not.
On the other hand, if the person is someone who would know that their candidate is not going to win then why would they place a bet at all knowing that they are gonna lose anyway ?

I've seen some discussions where people argue on matters like this. Some even argue that some gamblers place bets on teams that they support just because they are their favourite clubs or teams even if they know that they would lose the game but the fact is that I actually don't fancy that concept. If you are actually very sure that particular team would lose based on what ever idea you make use then it's best to just stay and watch the game only instead of betting.
In my opinion I actually think that they really didn't know for sure that the particular team would lose because I don't think literally anyone would be happy to bet on something they know is a lost cause.

rodskee

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Quote from: Cantsay on December 07, 2024, 05:12:38 PM

Any bet that involves human life I would never bet on it. For example the Hurricane that happened in Minton, we saw some site asking people to bet on the number of people they think died during that incidents and it was actually disgusting (I can’t recall the exact site).

As for those you included in your post, they also fall into the category of things I can never bet on - since their action will definitely lead to the lost of life.

yeah it feels really odd to “cheer” or “root” for an outcome that may lead to hundreds or maybe even thousands of lives being lost even if you bet on the side where you hope nothing negative happens in a way you are still enabling this kind of betting by actively participating and continuing to support it

Crypt0Gore

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Betting on US election sits well with me, or any country in the world but it is ugly to even think about betting on wars, like seriously people are unbelievable and ugly on the inside, I can never try to make money out of a war outbreak between two countries, sane people used to say that their are too many sick people in the world and this just prove it right.

It is disgusting, I want peace in the world, not some bloodshed.

famososMuertos

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Man! There are limits, one thing is to bet on DT and vote for Kamala, starting with the fact that I am not a citizen of U.S, so I have an advantage in that feeling, but when it comes to war, deaths, invasion, there are definitely limits. , in fact it is unpleasant that market bets exist on type idea. I think these types of markets are those weird bets that, thanks to my moral principles, I would not reach, hence, yeah, there are limits!.

Topic: Gambling on events, where do you draw the line? - page 3. (Read 947 times)