Game of Thrones - Who will rule? Odds and betting discussion [Odds updated!] - page 10.

Cloudbet

legendary

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Took a gamble coming to the thread since I haven't seen the episode yet, heading back to watch it as soon as work is finished!

Quote from: Theb on April 13, 2019, 05:00:42 PM

I just got to watch Nikolaj Coster-Waldau's interview with Jimmy Kimmel and there was a part at the very end of the video where Nikolaj said that all of the fan theories circulating in the web on how Game of Thrones will end are all entirely wrong saying that the ending was "sadisfying". Same goes to other actors of the show in tv appearances saying that all predictions on how game of thrones will end are wrong or at least no one have entirely guessed it correctly. So if you are basing your bets based on the books or based in other fan theories maybe you should have 2nd thoughts about it by now.

I read an interesting theory today that might actually play into this 'sad-isfying' hint.

The Exodus Theory

(Credit to u/The_Coconut_God on /r/freefolk)

It would be kinda bitter-sweet if Dany/Jon found a new kingdom in Essos while the Night King claims the Iron throne Grin

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Malsetid

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on April 14, 2019, 08:19:16 PM

Season 8 will begin in approximately 45 minutes. For those who forgot, this is a recap of the storyboards of some of the main characters to remind you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMbao3xdiRY

An episode full of reunions it seems. A filler episode but great nonetheless. We've waited for this for 2 freakin years and the pilot was a good springboard to launch the next episode and probably the entire season. Not going to spoil it for anyone who hasn't watched yet even though it's all over social media now lol.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Season 8 will begin in approximately 45 minutes. For those who forgot, this is a recap of the storyboards of some of the main characters to remind you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMbao3xdiRY

sammyp

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Well, it is quite unpredictable but I am convinced by the happenings in the movie that John Snow will sit on the throne. So far all events appear to favor him better than any other character.

Theb

hero member

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I just got to watch Nikolaj Coster-Waldau's interview with Jimmy Kimmel and there was a part at the very end of the video where Nikolaj said that all of the fan theories circulating in the web on how Game of Thrones will end are all entirely wrong saying that the ending was "sadisfying". Same goes to other actors of the show in tv appearances saying that all predictions on how game of thrones will end are wrong or at least no one have entirely guessed it correctly. So if you are basing your bets based on the books or based in other fan theories maybe you should have 2nd thoughts about it by now.

xWolfx

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I would personally like Jon Snow or Gendry to win that one. I think that the midget or Daenerys could win too maybe but i like those other two more.

This is only for fun anyways but i would be really happy if any of those two wins because i believe that the story would be a lot more interesting. And if that is the case i would finish watching the episodes of that show later.

Ailmand

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I will bet for Daenerys and Jon Snow. There are lots of theories and speculations but we'll know the answer as soon as we watch the new season. I'm sure that there are rulers who will fall on the last season but I would stick on Daenerys since has been through a lot and she deserves the throne.

buwaytress

legendary

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on April 12, 2019, 09:59:11 PM

Bitcoinrush has begun promoting their Game Of Thrones betting odds!

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50571708

The sportsbook also has a lower minstake than Cloudbet. Bet there now before they pull it down! The show is beginning on Sunday hehehe.

Yeah, the odds on BCR are generally one of the best for normal sports but they have quite a good and active system to monitor and switch up. The only thing I would say as a Rush user is that you generally are better off elsewhere on the huge favourites. But if you are like me and enjoy going for the longshort underdogs, then Rush lines on these specials generally give you really good value.

P.S. Stretch the page to zoom out about 70% to get a clear view of the odds. Mine on Chrome goes a bit wonky for their page.

bbc.reporter

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 1460

Bitcoinrush has begun promoting their Game Of Thrones betting odds!

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50571708

The sportsbook also has a lower minstake than Cloudbet. Bet there now before they pull it down! The show is beginning on Sunday hehehe.

STT

legendary

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Anytime theres an 'unpopular' bet (brexit and trump were classics, I definitely wouldn't predict trump but it was good odds afaik) its worth going for, basically because the people who spread trends of what is or what should happen might be the most vocal but it doesnt mean they actually represent the correct balance of probability. It might just be Iam a sucker for an outside bet, big odds mean you dont have to risk as much also of course

buwaytress

legendary

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on April 11, 2019, 09:15:11 PM

@beerlover. There are people who bet on politics, the oscars, the miss universe and tv shows for as long as there was sportsbetting on the internet, I reckon.

Also, if you are a fan of the Game Of Thrones and sportsbetting, you have to bet hehehe.

@buwaytress. I do not see it in Bitcoinrush's sportsbook page. Are we allowed to see their Game Of Thrones offerings? What is their minstake?

I actually only bet once before on this type of thing (Brexit, which I won, and I should have followed that up with a Trump victory in the US elections!) but I thought it's worth 1 or 2 punts for GoT. Kinda like how I actually still buy a random lottery every now and then. I figure I'd forego a snack and instead spend it on making other people rich (haha)..

I don't know either how to access it through BCR sports, there's usually a dropdown link for Specials but this is the direct link: https://www.bitcoinrush.io/sportsbook/game-of-thrones#

Cloudbet

legendary

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So it's coming right down to the wire now, can't wait for Sunday Grin

I've noticed some fairly big movement on some of the odds since they went up:

- Gendry has dropped from (7.30) down to (5.24), making him the current 3rd favourite after Bran and Jon.
- Sansa has dropped from (11.4) down to (7.46)
- Tyrion dropped slightly from (8.43) to (7.91) (but is still my personal pick for the market)
- Dany's odds lengthened slightly from (4.95) to (5.70)

Has anyone seen any rumours that could explain the above movements?

Gendry in particular is very interesting considering he was one of the outsiders I originally tipped along with Tyrion in our guide to the Game of Thrones lines.

The night king and Cersei's odds also seem to have risen slightly, which could be good news for fans of 'the good guys' in season 8?

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Theb

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Quote from: beerlover on April 11, 2019, 10:40:59 AM

I don't get it Cheesy

. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen. I am not saying Yara Greyjoy will sit on the iron throne (would be very weird) but how come Bran is leading right now ?

There's a lot of fan theory running in Youtube right now and one of the most popular ones is he is really the Night King which he is controlling through is warg ability. Another fan theory is Bran Stark and Brand the builder who built the wall is really just one person and he visited the past to build it.Other than that he knows what will happen next through his greensight power which will really be handy in the upcoming season. Other than that he could technically change the past just like what happened to Hodor.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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@beerlover. There are people who bet on politics, the oscars, the miss universe and tv shows for as long as there was sportsbetting on the internet, I reckon.

Also, if you are a fan of the Game Of Thrones and sportsbetting, you have to bet hehehe.

@buwaytress. I do not see it in Bitcoinrush's sportsbook page. Are we allowed to see their Game Of Thrones offerings? What is their minstake?

STT

legendary

Activity: 4060

Merit: 1448

Quote

I don't get it Cheesy. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen.

Theres a skill in it but my guess would be like any set of bets its upto the house or the book maker to balance the popularity of all the various bets. Its not that the bookmaker knows the answer, can know what will happen but that they must give correct odds to match the payout and possible profit or loss to it. Always some will bet for an outcome and some against it and in theory they should be taking a % of either outcome so it should be good money if done right. I'm only thinking about where they get rushed in the odds somehow or extreme upsets, where its not profitable

Quote

Wisdom of the crowd does surprisingly well from survey I tried in the past but definitely not perfect

I think if the story remains good till the end, its going to be an unexpected twist which means I'd go for the outside bets personally

Cloudbet

legendary

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Quote from: beerlover on April 11, 2019, 10:40:59 AM

I don't get it Cheesy

. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen. I am not saying Yara Greyjoy will sit on the iron throne (would be very weird) but how come Bran is leading right now ?

I doubt he would even accept or take it, after all he is "three eyed raven" and that is all he is, he accepted his faith already, maybe he will help someone take the throne sure but taking the throne himself doesn't seem that plausible.

I think Jon Snow could be really prime for the position, dude literally had the best character arc of "not wanted bastard" to "well deserved DAKINGINDANORF" , maybe even Cersei or Danny but really looking at the odds they are not as favorites as bran who is a crippled three eyed raven, I am trying to understand how he is the favorite but I can't seem to find the reason Cheesy

. Hell littlefinger is dead and he still is ahead of many people Cheesy

.

I wrote our blog on the Game of Thrones betting odds and I still can't figure out why Bran is favourite at most sportsbooks. I agree that he's unlikely to even want it, I personally think he sees his role as the three eyed raven as more important than a simple throne (I ended up tipping Tyrion in the blog).

These kind of odds are usually worked out by looking at the amount of bets placed, as well as information from traders, but with 'entertainment' lines there's also the fan's rumour mill and potentially leaked production information to take into account.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

beerlover

legendary

Activity: 2996

Merit: 1188

I don't get it Cheesy

. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen. I am not saying Yara Greyjoy will sit on the iron throne (would be very weird) but how come Bran is leading right now ?

I doubt he would even accept or take it, after all he is "three eyed raven" and that is all he is, he accepted his faith already, maybe he will help someone take the throne sure but taking the throne himself doesn't seem that plausible.

I think Jon Snow could be really prime for the position, dude literally had the best character arc of "not wanted bastard" to "well deserved DAKINGINDANORF" , maybe even Cersei or Danny but really looking at the odds they are not as favorites as bran who is a crippled three eyed raven, I am trying to understand how he is the favorite but I can't seem to find the reason Cheesy

. Hell littlefinger is dead and he still is ahead of many people Cheesy

.

Naida_BR

member

Activity: 980

Merit: 62

Quote from: Cloudbet on April 11, 2019, 06:00:06 AM

Looks like Jon is still the clear fan's favourite, i'm surprised how many wen't with 'nobody' though...

... unless thats a faceless men reference Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

There are too many Jon Snow fans clearly!
The odds are very attractive even for the favorites and I think that GoT producers have heard the fans and they will probably give the Iron Throne to one of the most popular characters.

Winter is here and we will be about to know in some days!

Juggy777

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Quote from: Cloudbet on April 11, 2019, 06:00:06 AM

I'm not sure if people are subscribers over at /r/gameofthrones on Reddit, but they are currently running a pool with people voting on who will claim the Iron Throne.

I thought it would be fun to pull together the votes and convert them into decimal odds, to see how the 'wisdom of the crowd' compares to the official odds

Looks like Jon is still the clear fan's favourite, i'm surprised how many wen't with 'nobody' though...

... unless thats a faceless men reference Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Hey Jon Snow has and always will be the fans favourite, I’m hoping he survives till the end which will be difficult but let’s hope for the best. I was just reading an article which had a very intriguing theory, that says Danny will destroy Kings Landing and there will be two wars this season as Danny already had those visions in season 2. Also I’m very excited now for the new season to start, just can’t wait to see who survives and who dies.

Cloudbet

legendary

Activity: 2338

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Cloudbet | Best Bitcoin Gambling Site Since 2013

I'm not sure if people are subscribers over at /r/gameofthrones on Reddit, but they are currently running a pool with people voting on who will claim the Iron Throne.

I thought it would be fun to pull together the votes and convert them into decimal odds, to see how the 'wisdom of the crowd' compares to the official odds

Looks like Jon is still the clear fan's favourite, i'm surprised how many wen't with 'nobody' though...

... unless thats a faceless men reference Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Topic: Game of Thrones - Who will rule? Odds and betting discussion [Odds updated!] - page 10. (Read 27539 times)