Topic: Game of Thrones - Who will rule? Odds and betting discussion [Odds updated!] - page 11. (Read 27539 times)

Hello guys! Guess who decided to join the GoT lines party? One of my favourite sportsbooks Bitcoinrush has some lines, at first glance it seems the odds for a lot of things have dropped since I last looked a few weeks ago. Their display's a bit wonky but if you stretch your view it fits right.



Here's my only bet so far: Bronn to die first before Varys @2.94. I agree with Ronnie that Cersei's probably ripe to get knocked off but the odds for me are too low. Also, the Mountain should die. He already had an extension, surely not winning two big duels?

I honestly can't decide why Hot Pie shouldn't sit on the throne =p

Edit, the BCR link is here.

The odds are updated! I have begun using Cloudbet's odds because it appears that Nitrogensports will not be offering the Game Of Thrones betting anymore.

Season 8 will begin on Sunday!

@Naida_BR - I just clicked and it seems fine to me, and the odds are still up on site. If a direct link isn't working try clicking on the 'entertainment' tab on the left hand side of our sportsbook page and click through International > Game of Thrones.

EDIT: Just noticed on the 1xBit lines posted above - Brienne Tart  

Thanks,

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

these are what the Odds are on 1xbit. I have a feeling that Cersie will survive it all and sit on the throne in the end. GoT has delivered shockers for so long..I can see that happening.

It looks like I am not able to load this link..
Is it a problem from my side or it is a global one?

@Juggy777. Where were you all this time? I was asking for everyone's help to make requests on Cloudbet to reduce their minstake for the head to head who will die first match ups.

Look at the odds for characters to die first.

https://www.cloudbet.com/en/sports/international/game-of-thrones/c13251/outrights

@bbc.reporter - If the Mountain kills the Hound there's going to be a riot! 

I've mostly avoided the first death head to head matchups, as the ones with the best odds that I would usually bet on are the people I actually want to survive!

@Juggy777 The lines are head to head matchups, so the first one out of the two named characters to die during the series (any episode) will win. If neither of them die during the series then it's a push (stake returned).

I agree with most of your predictions except Cersei - there's been a few rumours going round of late that hint that she will be bumped off pretty early into the series, and because I dislike her i've convinced myself it's a fact 

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Hey what do you mean by first category, are you referring to the first episode or first character to die in the series? I don’t think Cersei and Daenerys will be bumped off so early, same goes for Tyrion and Jamie, and between the hound and the mountain I feel the hound shall prevail. As we can see we’re down to Gilly or Hot pie I think I would gamble on hot pie being bumped off, as Gilly shall survive till the end.

@Ronnie. Thank you!

There are some betting opportunities in the characters to die first category that I reckon the sportsbooks might have them wrong hehehe.

Who will die first? If no one dies between them, your bet is a push and the bitcoins will be back in your account.


Daenarys 2.43
        or
Cersei 1.47


Tyrion 3.75
        or
Jaime 1.21


The Hound - 3.84
        or
The Mountain - 1.20


Gilly - 1.09
        or
Hot Pie 5.66


All my bets are for the underdogs.

Sam reading to baby Jon/Dany would actually make a lot of sense, and I'm very interested in the idea of Euron killing Cersei. There was even some talk that the baby Cersi claims to be carrying is Euron's which might be some kind of trigger, or possibly even drive Jamie to kill his sister.

Jon's stabbing in the books was enough to make me quit for a while, if he does get killed off in the show I'm going to be super sad.

Some good news to share - I was initially told our Game of Thrones lines would be coming down on April 1st, but it now seems they will be staying up until April14th (right up until the start of the new series!)  

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

I couldn't agree more.
My feeling is that a story has to be connected with this character otherwise there was no point in letting him alive for all these seasons.
But of course, if something has to do with him they should start plotting the story maybe even from the first episode of this last season in order to catch up the events.

Hey I feel that could happen as this could be one big story that Sam is reading, to Jon and Danny’s child. I had read leaked scripts last year not sure if it’ll be true or not, but Cersei shall be bumped off very soon by her so called lover Euron so it’ll be interesting to see how long she survives. I feel Danny has to die as that’s logical from the shows perspective, but Jon and Tyrion better survive.

We must consider that George R.R. Martin is also crazy hehehe. Your ending would be the model ending, however when did the writers take that direction? We will certainly see more surprises.

I predict Daenarys, Jon and Tyrion will die before Cersei.

I thought that Jon Snow would be the king of Westeros, we knew that he was the legitimate heir of Iron Thrones, the living son of Rhaegar Targaryen. the big odds are enough to attract me to bet on Jon. Bran has the smallest odds while he says that he will only become Three Eye Raven.

@buwaytress - Yeah I definitely agree, and it's probably why most books have the odds due to come down on April 1st at the moment - the closer we get to the series start the more leaks and rumours will be coming out and there's not many people 'trading' on those lines to keep them tight.

I can understand the reluctance to place a 'fun' bet on the lines given the above-average minimum stakes, I was hoping the 50 free spin offer would tempt a few more punters but so far only a few have been claimed via the forums! 

@Naida_BR - I do have a feeling that Gendry is going to have a big part to play, but they are going to have to act fast if they are going to reveal more backstory and try and extend his character arc in the last 6 episodes!

@TheCoinGrabber - It's up for debate, but depending on how closely the show follows the books it's possible she is still fertile.

After the events with Duur and Drogo (and Dany losing her unborn child) the last bit of the 'prophesy' about Drogo's recovery states:

...when your womb quickens again and you bear a living child
Then he will return, and not before.

Which seems to hint that having a another child was possible, unless it was just a mean way of saying "It's never going to happen".

There was also this theory on /r/asoiaf about Dany having a miscarriage, which would hint at the idea that she is still able to conceive (unless the 'curse' just means that she'll never birth a 'living' child)

I'm now leaning towards a child of Dany & Jon being raised as a future king with Tyrion as their protector/regent.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Didn't Mirri Maz Dur's curse left Dany infertile or something?  Cersei is also pregnant.


With the Dothraki now having crossed the Narrow Sea, I don't think so. Should Dany die the khalasar would break up like what happened after Drogo died and they'd go around pillaging Westeros. Such situation would call for more tough man politics, aka more feudalism.

This show has surprised us many times. Jon Snow wasn't a king material but they managed to make him with the story of his past.
We don't know very much about Gendry's past. Some episodes may reveal several things that may connect him with the Iron Throne. It is just my assumption and my thought.

@Ronnie: I definitely think Tyrion's the best value bet and there's going to be a lot of support for that. But I still feel if everything's already written and filmed, there's got to be enough leaks for people to make markets, and so checking sites like Fairbet or for crypto Fairlay, will probably give a good mathematician some close guesses as to a shortlist.

I wouldn't rule out an improbable character as well, but that would be reliant on a big reveal, which, is probably why it's worth shooting a few backs on the outsiders.


Yeah, it's a bit too much for me too. 0.001 is my standard bet and I might go as high as 0.01 on sports for a big match, but not something like a hobby punt!

@bbc.reporter - I've checked with our teams and unfortunately the min stakes are there to stay.

I'm in discussions with the team to see if the min stakes can be lowered for similar entertainment markets in the future.

@Juggy777 - I thought the same about Gendry until I read the theory about him possibly learning to forge Valyrian steel weapons. If he was unveiled as the bastard son of a king, and gave Westeros the tools needed to fight the White Walkers he could be hailed as a hero, but I still don't think his claim would be strong enough if any of the other main contenders are still alive. I'm counting on a lot of high profile deaths in the first few episodes!

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

@Ronnie. I would have made some bets if the minstake was beginning on .0025 hehe. I am only a small pundit who do this as a hobby. Is there a way for Cloudbet to lower the who will die first betting to .0025? I want to bet on most of them.