"Gareth Soloway: BTC to 3,5k possible" How likely is that?

Silberman

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 22, 2022, 10:59:51 AM

The problem i see is that Bitcoin only existed in a S&P500 Bullmarket. We had the -85% Drops in Bitcoin, but they always happened while the S&P500 was in a Bullmarket since 2010.

Bitcoin never existed in a real bearmarket of the S&P500, like the 2000 Dotcom Bearmarket und the 2008 Bearmarket. That`s why i think we could drop further.

This is an interesting observation, it is true that bitcoin for most of its life it has existed in an environment that was conductive for its growth, but now things are going to change as the economies of the world face all kind of issues in the future, however we believe that bitcoin is a store of value and those are the conditions in which a store of value should shine, so while a further reduction of the price is possible it is also possible the next bull market could be many times more intense than what we thought.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: blockman on October 22, 2022, 06:09:59 AM

Every burst of the bubble is possible. But do you think that we're in a bubble right now where in fact that bitcoin has dropped from $69k to $17k and a few years ago from $20k to $3k? Honestly, I'm done with those bullish predictions that are being published and noticed by people.

Now that there's something like this, it's better to have such negative predictions so that the opposite is what actually comes. Remember those bull runs when we're all expecting $100k and then the opposite has happened.

We're just pleb-investors who either get very optimistic, OR become very pessimistic. I myself had some doubts in my current investment thesis, but I truly believe that buying during DIPs of bear markets is the best times to accumulate Bitcoins, and HODL. Plus especially in the current bear market, the Central Banks have actually tightened thr most in 20 years. You know what will follow after the tightening? I believe the next big surge during the next bull market will be like the surge of 2015 - 2017. Cool

SirLancelot

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Quote from: Nrcewker on October 22, 2022, 12:17:27 PM

It’s hardly possible for Bitcoins to go such low price. I mean I am not blabbering out of thin air. I am saying this by seeing the numbers and outcomes. Have you seen Bitcoin’s marketcap ? It’s enough to make a newbie understand that how big and popular Bitcoins are. Moreover Bitcoins are very low in price, if we compare it with the ATH. Many buyers including me are happy with the price, and are buying Bitcoins as many as possible, so definitely price won’t fall more. Rather due to the large demand of the coins, the price will soon increase.
Let’s hope for the best.

Sorry but it seems you are really blabbering out of thin air. Btc's market cap is already high even before but why we have seen btc drop down to 3k usd last time? Anything is possible and $3k may happen again if ever history repeats itself. Bear market is said to remain for a long time so there's always more room for the price to decline.

There are people who buy and hodl a btc and one of it is you but keep in mind that there are whales and big institutions who will do the opposite thing. They may need money that is why they did that or they simply want to manipulate the market but after all, btc can still recover after some time so there is no need for us to worry.

Nrcewker

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It’s hardly possible for Bitcoins to go such low price. I mean I am not blabbering out of thin air. I am saying this by seeing the numbers and outcomes. Have you seen Bitcoin’s marketcap ? It’s enough to make a newbie understand that how big and popular Bitcoins are. Moreover Bitcoins are very low in price, if we compare it with the ATH. Many buyers including me are happy with the price, and are buying Bitcoins as many as possible, so definitely price won’t fall more. Rather due to the large demand of the coins, the price will soon increase.
Let’s hope for the best.

stefan466

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The problem i see is that Bitcoin only existed in a S&P500 Bullmarket. We had the -85% Drops in Bitcoin, but they always happened while the S&P500 was in a Bullmarket since 2010.

Bitcoin never existed in a real bearmarket of the S&P500, like the 2000 Dotcom Bearmarket und the 2008 Bearmarket. That`s why i think we could drop further.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: tvplus006 on October 22, 2022, 07:24:56 AM

Until quite recently, it was impossible to believe that the price could decline to the current one, but as we decline, we are already beginning to accept the fact that nothing is impossible when it comes to BTC.

Actually you're incorrect. I was telling since June that under 10k is possible. And we're at 19k.
Of course, 3.5k is much worse and much less likely to happen, especially that the cycle should start turning towards getting bullish. That's why I've called 3.5k unrealistic.
But the recession may be changing everything.

tvplus006

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on October 21, 2022, 08:41:55 AM

Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

Imho it's not realistic, the price has already fallen a lot and there seem to be buyers very happy with the current price levels...

If the price of bitcoin decreases by another 2 times, then buyers will be even more satisfied. Until quite recently, it was impossible to believe that the price could decline to the current one, but as we decline, we are already beginning to accept the fact that nothing is impossible when it comes to BTC.

mindrust

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

What to do you think about this theory from Gareth Soloway:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-18/Bitcoin-could-fall-to-3-5K-as-recession-intensifies-and-stocks-collapse-Gareth-Soloway.html

He argues that Amazon has fallen 95% in the dotcom bubble, and that the same could happen with Bitcoin.

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

Nothing is impossible with crypto. $100k or $1k, all of them are in the real of possibilities. Lots of people will go mad at him but he is simply telling the truth. Crypto has no price floor as it don't have price ceiling. If you can't stomach the volatility, you shouldn't own any crypto and move to more less volatile assets like real estate.

Bitcoin lost more than 85% of its peak price before, it can definitely happen again. That's no big news.

DanWalker

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Yes, anything is possible but I wouldn't believe there is any big enough crash to cause bitcoin to plummet 3.5k again. I was shocked when I saw this analysis, the lowest guess I've seen is 10k and I assume that's unlikely as well. Nowadays a lot of funds, big companies as well as countries are holding a lot of bitcoins, so I don't think they let bitcoin fall so miserably. Scenarios that could make this happen, really I can only think of world war that could make things worse. I can't think of any reason for bitcoin to drop there.

blockman

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Every burst of the bubble is possible. But do you think that we're in a bubble right now where in fact that bitcoin has dropped from $69k to $17k and a few years ago from $20k to $3k? Honestly, I'm done with those bullish predictions that are being published and noticed by people.
Now that there's something like this, it's better to have such negative predictions so that the opposite is what actually comes. Remember those bull runs when we're all expecting $100k and then the opposite has happened.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: bittraffic on October 22, 2022, 12:37:56 AM

Quote from: adaseb on October 22, 2022, 12:18:57 AM

Usually when the general public expects the opposite happens.

Making it really hard for a well-timed entry to buy on the bottom.

It's easier if you lower your time-preference, and simply HODL. Would the difference be truly that large between an entry of $15,000 and $20,000 if you bought one Bitcoin and HODLed it until six digits?

Quote

Soloway is somewhat part of those big investors who are probably chatting with the big investors collaborating to pump and just agreeing to dump at a specific price. For now, they just add more fear to retail investors, part of the wolf pack I guess who posts youtube videos titled "THE BIG DUMP is CUMING"

That's laughable, but I believe I might be the only person that says that I HOPE that the big DUMP/CRASH will come soon. I was induced to sell everything, then start bidding at $10,000, doubling my Bitcoins. But the procedure of loading my private keys from cold-storage is stopping me. Haha. Cool

justdimin

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Quote from: bittraffic on October 21, 2022, 10:47:42 AM

He is always been in Kitco news to forecast scary things but is also not going to predict future prices. Soloway also predicted the price back in 2021 will dip below $20k in a bear market and it also happened. There are several support lines to break before it could reach the 3.5k low. There may just be a catastrophe that will happen that will cause this plummet. Hopefully not.

I guess there are some people who like to make these type of bearish claims, there are some people in the fiat world who like to make these type of bearish calculations and predictions as well, and since fiat world does have 2008 or 2022 type of years here and there, they are sometimes right.

Like the famous Michael Burry or something, he knew the 2008 crisis long before anyone else, and everyone thought he would be a smart person who knows trading very well, but in reality he just thinks everything will fall at all times and he was right very huge time on that particular subject. Some people are just bearish on trading, and try to make money on that.

Awaklara

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

we won't know how realistic such a scenario could be in Bitcoin.
but if you ask about the possibility, of course, there is a possibility. regarding percentages, who knows?

currently, the condition of the world market is also not good. some news of the hacking that occurred on the cryptocurrency network could of course be a pretext for a dump that will happen more badly.
but at the current value of Bitcoins, $15k is a reasonable price in a gradual dump. I'm not sure there will be a dump that will take bitcoin straight down to $3.5k.
this year's decline has been incredible, I think there will be a moment for Bitcoin to stabilize first.

bittraffic

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Quote from: adaseb on October 22, 2022, 12:18:57 AM

Usually when the general public expects the opposite happens.

Making it really hard for a well-timed entry to buy on the bottom.

Soloway is somewhat part of those big investors who are probably chatting with the big investors collaborating to pump and just agreeing to dump at a specific price. For now, they just add more fear to retail investors, part of the wolf pack I guess who posts youtube videos titled "THE BIG DUMP is CUMING"

adaseb

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I think that with all these predictions about bitcoin going to $3K or $5K or the very popular $10K area. I think we either bottomed at $17.5K or we will bottom somewhere in the $14-15K area.

Many people want to buy lower and usually when that happens its bottoms out. We are already trading sideways for weeks. This is similar to 2019 when everybody was calling for $1K which never came or 2015 when everybody was calling for $100 bitcoin.

Usually when the general public expects the opposite happens.

Silberman

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

What to do you think about this theory from Gareth Soloway:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-18/Bitcoin-could-fall-to-3-5K-as-recession-intensifies-and-stocks-collapse-Gareth-Soloway.html

He argues that Amazon has fallen 95% in the dotcom bubble, and that the same could happen with Bitcoin.

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

We are talking about bitcoin which is an asset which is very volatile so such a drop even if it is unlikely it could happen, but it is not very realistic if you ask me to expect that it will actually happen, and even if it does do you think other assets in the market will be doing any better at that point? It is very possible that for such a crash to happen we will need to see an economic crisis like we have not seen one before in many generations, so if I were you I would not worry too much about this prediction.

serjent05

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Anything can happen since the Bitcoin market is very unpredictable but Gareth Soloway's statement is just speculation so we better not depend on his statement.

At the current market trend, is is quite impossible for BTC to drop to $3.5k since the market is somehow thriving between $19k-$20k range. Aside from that, the Bear market possibly has few months to stay before we can see a new market trend. So saying $3.5k in this current Bitcoin cycle has a very low chance of happening, is nearly impossible to say the least.

But if the predicted price happens, well it is the better time to buy, IMHO.

goaldigger

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It can happen but i wonder if whales can afford this to happen so most probably some will catch the price to avoid getting deeper while others will just join that FUD so they can buy at a more cheaper price.
Anything can happen with Bitcoin, the price is not stable and it becomes more volatile, the risk will aways be there and that’s why stop loss is advisable. As long as we stays in bear market, cheaper price can happen anytime.

ethereumhunter

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If that happens, I think people will panic and sell all the bitcoins they have because they fear their losses will be bigger if they keep holding the bitcoins. But that wouldn't happen if people could stay calm and instead see it as a rare opportunity that probably won't happen again in the future. They will use it to buy as many bitcoins as possible and keep them until the price recovers and rises very high. And anything can happen in the future, including the sharp decline that occurred in bitcoin and this makes us always be prepared to buy at a lower price.

bittraffic

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He is always been in Kitco news to forecast scary things but is also not going to predict future prices. Soloway also predicted the price back in 2021 will dip below $20k in a bear market and it also happened. There are several support lines to break before it could reach the 3.5k low. There may just be a catastrophe that will happen that will cause this plummet. Hopefully not.

Topic: "Gareth Soloway: BTC to 3,5k possible" How likely is that? (Read 246 times)