"Gareth Soloway: BTC to 3,5k possible" How likely is that? - page 2.

tranthidung

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Quote from: logfiles on October 21, 2022, 10:25:30 AM

A drop to $3.5K is technically possible, but unlikely in the near future. Before even thinking about $3.5k, there is another very strong support level around $8k-10K. $17k-19K has held on strongly for a quite a while and I believe the current price range is where a new bull market will launch from

$13,000 is a last call in my opinion but a truly matter for people especially newbies is "What will they do if Bitcoin actually drops to $3,500 ?"

Now, they wish it will happen but when it happens, they will be fearful. Because if Bitcoin drops to $3,500, they will think it will continue falling to $1,000. It happened in last bear market from my experience. Some people are only observers and they will never be bravely enough to step in.

I will buy with DCA a lot around $13,000 but if Bitcoin falls to $3,500 and I still have additional capital from my salary in later months, I will continue to buy it. It is very great chance which does not appear too regularly. I won't miss it just because of fear.

I presented my opinion in Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom. Please visit and see more comparisons with past markets.

logfiles

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Quote from: joniboini on October 21, 2022, 08:35:11 AM

It is not impossible, I mean we went from 19k back to 3k ~~last bull run~~,

Last bear market? I mean, in a bull market, price surely can't be dropping backwards, can it? Wink

A drop to $3.5K is technically possible, but unlikely in the near future. Before even thinking about $3.5k, there is another very strong support level around $8k-10K. $17k-19K has held on strongly for a quite a while and I believe the current price range is where a new bull market will launch from

tranthidung

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

He argues that Amazon has fallen 95% in the dotcom bubble, and that the same could happen with Bitcoin.

You can not compare Bitcoin to stocks. Amazon is one of stock and it is in a different market than cryptocurrency market.

Past cycles and past bear market of Bitcoin have average -80% corrections from all time highs to bottoms of bear market. Please do your calculation for -80% from $69,000 that is an all time high in 2020-2021 bull market.

One more point, I don't say the call for $3,500 is good or bad, correct or mad. I want to say, even it happens actually, there will be two opposite sides on the market

People who wait for it, patiently and calmly waiting for months to see its appearance and they consider it like the one and only chance to buy Bitcoin at $3,500 in 2023 or 2024. They are winners on the market.
People who feel deeply disappointed and fearful. They will sell out and exit the market, with painful feeling and experience. They are losers on the market.

Who are you, winner or loser? Who do you want to be?

hugeblack

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I think that his analysis is based on the bottom of the previous cycle, a very pessimistic perception that is difficult to achieve.
What concerns us now is to maintain levels above 17k for a long time, which is something that has been achieved so far, so 3,5k is considered impossible based on the current conditions.

Franctoshi

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Quote from: joniboini on October 21, 2022, 08:35:11 AM

It is not impossible, I mean we went from 19k back to 3k last bull run, so I won't be surprised if a harsher pullback happens. I think fud around exchanges or hacks is likely to be the cause instead of stocks and recession though, who knows? Just be prepared for anything. Plan your trade carefully with stop loss and stuff like that just in case.

Everything is possible because what I learnt from many years of trading experience is that the market is unpredictable. I have watched several of his YouTube videos about this $3500 crash of Bitcoin. According to him, he said it's a worst case scenario for Bitcoin, if things gets out of hand and if Bitcoin followed the Amazon.com bubble and 95% crash in price. But from his point, the main price prediction or target is $12k.

From my view , there was a particular time when I was doing some Technical Analysis and that very analysis pointed towards same price target of $3500, worst case scenario and I was shocked but didn't take it so serious because the chances of the price getting there is low.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

What to do you think about this theory from Gareth Soloway:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-18/Bitcoin-could-fall-to-3-5K-as-recession-intensifies-and-stocks-collapse-Gareth-Soloway.html

He argues that Amazon has fallen 95% in the dotcom bubble, and that the same could happen with Bitcoin.

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

It has happened before, and with everything around the world tightening, let's assume that it WILL crash to $3,500. What are you going to do? Run away in panic, OR be excited in having another golden opportunity to buy that DIP, and HODL? I truly believe that's the difference between those who make good, large profits, and those who don't.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: stefan466 on October 21, 2022, 07:42:50 AM

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

Imho it's not realistic, the price has already fallen a lot and there seem to be buyers very happy with the current price levels.
Plus the historic cycles would tell that we're getting out of time for the chance to get much lower with the price.

Of course, the recession is a factor we didn't have in the previous cycles, and this can do bad. Plus, noting is actually impossible. The fact I don't expect that it doesn't mean it cannot or won't happen. Time will tell.

joniboini

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It is not impossible, I mean we went from 19k back to 3k last bull run, so I won't be surprised if a harsher pullback happens. I think fud around exchanges or hacks is likely to be the cause instead of stocks and recession though, who knows? Just be prepared for anything. Plan your trade carefully with stop loss and stuff like that just in case.

stefan466

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What to do you think about this theory from Gareth Soloway:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-18/Bitcoin-could-fall-to-3-5K-as-recession-intensifies-and-stocks-collapse-Gareth-Soloway.html

He argues that Amazon has fallen 95% in the dotcom bubble, and that the same could happen with Bitcoin.

How realistic do you think such a scenario is?

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