Topic: Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever - page 3. (Read 1152 times)

true  it does move around.  PM sent.

Until bitcoin is treated more like money instead of an asset you'll see the volatility market wise. Then it will likely be the main off ramp to exit inflationary fiats for a number of years, so the appreciation of value is very likely.

As a business we want to retain the scarcity of bitcoin and so only exchange it as necessary regardless of market finding that gain/loss is negligible long term. Though we operate extremely lean so overhead is much less an issue like for it is for sidehack and other business models. Essentially we recommend bitcoin every time an incentivize it but are firm on allowing users to decide for the best experience possible.

It would not be good for gear builders and or sellers.  It would not be good for those that have a dozen units of gear due in Dec.

The tank was right on time. Just got paid the biggest BTC invoice in months at $11k8 so of course it was going to drop 15%. Don't know about you guys but a drop below $8k would make my business harder.

This is me  I was at a sweet sixteen party just got home.

Niceeeee  coins tanking.

I just grabbed some ltc at 74 bucks.

best thing that can happen is a hard tank  maybe 7777 for btc  and 66.66 for ltc

fingers crossed we really drop.  and that big ass 300 megawatt farm  just  getting built  gets cut hard.

Sooo glad I did not fold and buy  dec gear.

Of course  by the morining  btc could be 11111 and ltc could be 102  and I look like a fool.

The only issue I have with all the "guessing" that we all seem to do is that mining is a game of luck to begin with, in normal business you only have to worry about the competition since product cost and profit margin are almost always static , mining on the other hand, you need to worry about both competition (difficulty) and bitcoin price (product).

a few months ago when I was in the process of making a move that involved exchanging my BTC to hashing power , things were not as clear, now for me and for anyone who bough those cheap S9s we have ROIed  (or at least pretty close) and can easily sell the gears for double the price now, and that was BTC to mining gears, so I can only imagine that $ to mining gears would have been much profitable in all aspects.

While I do agree with phill that "Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever" , this statement is only valid for now, 3-4 months from now phill or anyone else for that matter might look back and regret not buying S17 for 4k , since for all we know BTC can easily hit 50k in a few months even before the halving.

But despite the luck factor, I have always though it's a wise idea to do the math based on what you see and not based on what you expect , so as phill showed doing the math, buying these new efficient gears at these stupid prices looks like a stupid decision as of now.

What is my plan? (not wise at all)

My plan is plain simple, it involves some speculations and some facts - based on those here is how I plan to play the next round, but first , let me put some points.

1-Price moves way faster than difficulty (fact)
2-Price is going UP (speculation)
3-Price will go down later (speculation)

-I expect a rally within a few months that will take us to 20k or (100% price increment)
-difficulty won't do 100% , not even 50% till then
-S9 profit will increase by at least 50% and probably go back to 5-6$ a day
-Mining Fomo hits again , S9 price increases (and so do the other gears)

at this point when we approach the last known ATH , everyone and their grand mother would want to start mining, I will take the chance and sell my S9s for a great price , and hodl USD.

-wait for price to correct (  I do believe it will once we approach the ATH, it always did)
-buy more efficient gears during the correction

rinse and repeat,,,

This is a high risk high reward way of doing things, if things go south you lose a lot , if things go as planned you get to have the same TH at 30-40% less power , if things don't work, you will end up paying more for the same TH you used to have, but to me and since I have already ROIed on almost every gear I bought , I am feeling so comfortable playing with fire.

Well my Father-in-law would love to say we shall see what we shall  see. My Clifton  farm is okay for now.

Where Crypto meets the "real" world, and not just currency exchange rates.

or to the moon and I am completely wrong

trump announced he would postpone some of the new tariffs .   Not sure about mining gear.

But 25% + 2.6

would be better then a jump to 35% + 2.6

Info changes constantly. A very fast world we are in.

Key takeaways from this thread :

> S9's and S9k's are better than the newer efficient hardwares.

> And the newer hardware will cause diff to rise to 20 trillion soon (but not in 4 - 5 months)

> BTC price will dive.

> Trump tax will make things more unprofitable soon.

Damn! this thread has been so depressing man! Thanks for all your calculations @Phillip

Sure some has cycled out.

My small farm is 680th newer  220th s9

But I think  not as much as you may think

diff is 9.9 soon to be 10.2

when we were mostly all s9   diff got to  7.8 in october

so a lot of s9  are mining at the moment

we peaked at 57 eh in october

we have now hit some 83 eh 1 day peaks

that means  57 + 26 = 83

more likely

50 + 33 = 83

s9 have been actively replaced s9 for a while. I would expect well run larger farms already cycled out most of their older gear.

They are going to keep holding pricing too even if we dip under 9000
Demand is about to surge among commercial miners from what I can tell. 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284590-blockstream-launches-bitcoin-mining-service
Just that alone seems like it could have heavy impact.

If your power deal is 50-50 coin split

Buying a pair of s9s is better then buying any new more efficient gear.

I am stuck in the USA so. All gear other then a pair of s9s is subject to the trump tax. Which moves to @ higher number in around a month.

I do not see moving from 9.9 t to 20 t in only 138 days.

Btw for me with a 50-50 coin split  the s9 does not hurt me much .

Obviously buying new gear like an s17 for 4000 simply does not work.

With trump tax it pushes 5200.

Nobody is buying S9's at $400. ...nor are the newest S9's going to sell out....there are 10's of thousands of them for sale through Offordscott alone.
S9's will be obsolete SOON...by Oct. most will be mining at a loss,  because of the Diff increase from new gear and the price WILL DIVE again as new gear comes online worst dive will be before year end. Diff will double by year end to 20 Trillion.

yeah I could have had 10 s17 pro 53th for 22,225  would have been nice.

I ordered 1  not 10.

My S9s are still making decent money. But I fear a "tipping point" when used S9s are going to flood the market. I got stuck with a bunch of Avalon 741s a while back. I could of sold them for decent price, but I waited to long, and got stuck with them. Couldn't even give them away.

Timing is everything. When BTC was $6000, I bought my S9s for $100, now reselling them for $400. There is good money in buying and selling Asics. Kicking myself because I had opportunity to buy a pallet of 10 x s17 for $20k when they first came out. They would have ROId by now just from mining, and then sell them at 4k a piece now.

My power deal is 50-50 coin split    so  the lowest cost per hash favors me  but of course it does not mean I should buy 40 s9's to fill out the farm as I would be lese then fair to my hoster.

I have 900th online about 230th is s9  the other 670th is all more efficient gear.
I also have 11gh of L3+

so better gear is pulling 52kwatts
the s9's are pulling        25kwatts
the L3+ are pulling        18kwatts
some gpu's pull               2kwatts

total                             97kwatts

the better gear earns way better then the s9's  but it looks like  with the trump tax issues I am shut out of everything other then the s9's

yesterday we made 0.17 ltc to spilt and  0.0226 btc to split.

that is  15+260   = 275/2 = 137.50 a day for my 1/2

I can justify adding more s9's  a few at a time.
It legally beats the trump tax.

This is why every time I regret not buying s9s when they were selling dirt cheap I remember how stressful this thing is and congratulate myself for the move.

For bitmain and inno and the rest, it's pretty simple. They charge outrageous prices knowing that, if you buy with the revenue they build two more, you don't buy it, not a problem they will mine themselves with it.

Of course, right now an s9 would make sense, but it all comes to how much gear do have they sold how much they have produced and how much they are going to make for the rest of the year.

Let's take the optimistic scenario
- back in October, we had around 55exa, meaning that we can put the growth of 20exa on new gear.
20exa in 6 months means that by the end of the year we will have another 20ex, not great, not terrible you will still ROI.

The pessimistic conspirationist scenario
- the first growth was actually because bitmain had already deployed new gear and the drop was because older s9 were put out for sale,  the 20 exahash were all new gear and they have another 20 exa shipping.
That would make at the end of the year 60+20(old gear for sale)+ 20 exash new gear deployed, 20 exa in shipping, and add another 40 for the rest of the year...and we're at 160exa by Christmas at which point if you own some s9...you would better be running on zero energy.

As usual, the truth is somewhere in between, but where?

I have........................................................................... ............... 900th mining
I have  1 t3 t50 coming on line this month I hope. ..........................50th
I have    2 s9k     coming on line in sept.............................................27th

I have 1 dead m10  that one fucking m10 just breaks over and over......30th  who knows
I have a 2 board repaired s9 over clocked ..........................................10th

that is 107th
I may over clock some of the partial s9's  about 23th more hash

so with perfect luck    I can add 130th to the 900th  with zero cash outlay

I expect to add 95th to the 900 th  giving me just about 1 ph  by sept 2019

blokforge
minefarmbuy   do miners correctly and you end up paying trump tax.

I would order a t3 t57 for october but I am waiting for the t3 t50 to arrive before I order more.

As I don't want to have 2  separate orders  out in the wild from innosilicion or from anyone other then bitmain.