Manufacturers like Bitmain and Whatsminer recently, are just capitalizing on the resellers market. Essentially they're under cutting their own buyers (resellers) by releasing units out of a typical cadence. This is flooding the available market with more gear. Though now they are selling at higher prices, but still lower or competitive with resellers, so units already sold to resellers won't move as fast. Potentially lowering pricing as a whole as the product that doesn't sell will be available cheaper because more units are being made, will ship, and back log for some manufacturers is pushing into 2020. Of course this only happens if no other variables change.
If market goes gangbusters all bets are off and you either fight off fomo and make good buying choices or hope you set up competitively to ride till bear and pick up on the cheap.
Still imo, it's best to project and calculate a good hash increase to diff increase and look to build up as you need to. Mostly as pre order from manufacturer is usually best pricing, and with your projections you know you'll want X ths, X month(s) from now you want/need. Reducing buying pressure and still getting the upgrades your looking for when you want to light them up, hopefully in an ROI that's acceptable.
Topic: Gear Pricing just becomes more irrational then ever - page 4. (Read 1056 times)
Did the math on an 1800 a1041 vs 798 for 2 s9k’s
Running the a1041 on full speed needs a cold space. I tested my 2 1041 on low and high
On low you get 30 th use 1980 watts in a warm room..
2 s9k. You get 27 th use 2500 watts in a warm room.
So you are 1000 usd behind with the a1041 but you gain 3 th a day and pay 12 less kwatts a day.
At a dime a kwatt it saves 1.20 in power every day
And at a nickel a kwatt it saves 60 cents in power every day
It also earns 3 x 0.0000245 more then the s9 do. That is 0.0000735 btc a day.
So after 300 days you gain back with 360 in power if you are a ten cent miner
Or 180 in power if,you are a nickel miner..
But 300 x 0.0000735 is 0.002205 btc in extra btc earned that is 25 dollars 💵 maybe 26 dollars more.
So in theory if btc skyrockets the a1041 could be a better deal after 300 days.
In no method from free to 10 cent power is the s17 better. Since the s9s would earn more btc.
The a1041 has a sound edge if you run at 30th speed. So that is a plus.
And if run at full speed it would earn even more coin then the s9s so you could at least stand a shot that the a1041 for 1800 from blokforge could beat the 2 s9 from bitmain.
But frankly unless you need to manage noise the s9k is almost certain to be a better buy if your power is at 0 to 10 cents at the 300 day point of use.
The t3 57t is no longer available for sept delivery for 2200. That deal is decent.
I paid 2500 for the m21s it arrived a week or so ago.
The t3 57t will be 2500 for October shipping.
You will want to run it at 52 th and use 2900 watts
As most all Innosilicon suck at full speed. Also if they pull 3400 watts on a c19 plug 🔌 it is borderline safe.
So 52th. At 2900 watts vs. 54th at 5200 watts.
So you save 2300 watts a day with a little bit less hash.
Let’s say you get it to do 55th at 3100 watts I doubt it.
It is a tiny bit more hash then the 4 s9k.
Or let’s argue it safely does 57th at 3300 watts
So you gain 3 th and save 1900 watts
This is pretty good and in 300 days you saved 300 x 4.40 or 1320 at 10 cent power or 660 at 5 cent power.
So a t3 57t coming in sept that cost you 2200 was a good deal.
But a t3 57t coming in oct that cost you 2500 was borderline
Still better then the
S17
a1041
Beats the s9 in 300 days if power is about 9 cents or power.
Loses to the s9 in 300 days if power is about 6 cents or less.
To get correct idea 💡 of these insane prices go back to the s9 in dec. 2017
Bitmain wanted 3000 for 1 s9. And coins were 20000 diff was 1.4
So diff is now 9.8
coins are 11300
The s9 was making. 45usd a day and was 3000 bucks
Today. The s17 makes. 15usd a day and was offered for 4000 bucks by bitmain.
We are so fucking over priced with the s17 it is crazy 😜
S9 The 2017 3000/45 = 67 days with free power
S17 The 2019 4000/15 = 267 days with free power.
So with the numbers above for the s17 to equal the 2017 price Coins need to,go from 11300 to well over 35000
So if the gear pricing is correct then coins will moon.
Running the a1041 on full speed needs a cold space. I tested my 2 1041 on low and high
On low you get 30 th use 1980 watts in a warm room..
2 s9k. You get 27 th use 2500 watts in a warm room.
So you are 1000 usd behind with the a1041 but you gain 3 th a day and pay 12 less kwatts a day.
At a dime a kwatt it saves 1.20 in power every day
And at a nickel a kwatt it saves 60 cents in power every day
It also earns 3 x 0.0000245 more then the s9 do. That is 0.0000735 btc a day.
So after 300 days you gain back with 360 in power if you are a ten cent miner
Or 180 in power if,you are a nickel miner..
But 300 x 0.0000735 is 0.002205 btc in extra btc earned that is 25 dollars 💵 maybe 26 dollars more.
So in theory if btc skyrockets the a1041 could be a better deal after 300 days.
In no method from free to 10 cent power is the s17 better. Since the s9s would earn more btc.
The a1041 has a sound edge if you run at 30th speed. So that is a plus.
And if run at full speed it would earn even more coin then the s9s so you could at least stand a shot that the a1041 for 1800 from blokforge could beat the 2 s9 from bitmain.
But frankly unless you need to manage noise the s9k is almost certain to be a better buy if your power is at 0 to 10 cents at the 300 day point of use.
The t3 57t is no longer available for sept delivery for 2200. That deal is decent.
I paid 2500 for the m21s it arrived a week or so ago.
The t3 57t will be 2500 for October shipping.
You will want to run it at 52 th and use 2900 watts
As most all Innosilicon suck at full speed. Also if they pull 3400 watts on a c19 plug 🔌 it is borderline safe.
So 52th. At 2900 watts vs. 54th at 5200 watts.
So you save 2300 watts a day with a little bit less hash.
Let’s say you get it to do 55th at 3100 watts I doubt it.
It is a tiny bit more hash then the 4 s9k.
Or let’s argue it safely does 57th at 3300 watts
So you gain 3 th and save 1900 watts
This is pretty good and in 300 days you saved 300 x 4.40 or 1320 at 10 cent power or 660 at 5 cent power.
So a t3 57t coming in sept that cost you 2200 was a good deal.
But a t3 57t coming in oct that cost you 2500 was borderline
Still better then the
S17
a1041
Beats the s9 in 300 days if power is about 9 cents or power.
Loses to the s9 in 300 days if power is about 6 cents or less.
To get correct idea 💡 of these insane prices go back to the s9 in dec. 2017
Bitmain wanted 3000 for 1 s9. And coins were 20000 diff was 1.4
So diff is now 9.8
coins are 11300
The s9 was making. 45usd a day and was 3000 bucks
Today. The s17 makes. 15usd a day and was offered for 4000 bucks by bitmain.
We are so fucking over priced with the s17 it is crazy 😜
S9 The 2017 3000/45 = 67 days with free power
S17 The 2019 4000/15 = 267 days with free power.
So with the numbers above for the s17 to equal the 2017 price Coins need to,go from 11300 to well over 35000
So if the gear pricing is correct then coins will moon.
S17 pricing is ridiculous. I did purchase a Innosillicon 57t for $2200 Sept delivery, and a Avalon 10 for $1800, August Delivery. Much more reasonable.
I have done the math and the prices are too high for the efficient gear.
an s17 53th pro is 4k in hand . with free power it earns 53 x 0.0000245 btc a day or 0.0012985 btc at 11,300 = 14.67 a day
4 s9 are 54 th or 54 x 0.0000245 = 0.001323 btc a day = 14.95 a day
s17 = 2225 watts
4 s9's = 5225 watts
a 3 kwatt power difference that is 72 kwatts a day extra or 300 x 72 = 21600 kwatts in 300 days
at 10 cent cost it would be 2160 spent in power
4 s9 with psu for 1200 = possible to find
1 s17 53th pro for 4000 = hard but possible to find
so you spend 2800 extra for state of the art you have 10 cent power 300 days later
1200 + 2160 = 3360 out of pocket
4000 + 0 = 4000 out of pocket and in both cases 2.2 x 24 x 300 x .10 = 1584 for power
so 3360 + 1584 = 4944 and you have 0.3969 btc 4 s9's about 4484 cash
4000 + 1584 = 5584 and you have 0.3895 btc s17 about 4401 cash
so both deals are not good with 10 cent power
we can go back down to 5 cent and you will see that favors the s9 more
2225 = 2.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 = 16020 kwatts at 5 cents = 801 in power
5225 = 5.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 = 37620 kwatts at 5 cents = 1881 in power
so 4000 + 801 = 4801 for s17 you will have about 4401 usd in btc = loser
and 1200 x 1881 = 3081 for s9 you will have about 4484 usd in btc = winner
so at 10 cent both units lose at 300 days
but at 5 cent the 4x s9's kill the 4000 dollar s17
this make prices fucking nuts!!
an s17 53th pro is 4k in hand . with free power it earns 53 x 0.0000245 btc a day or 0.0012985 btc at 11,300 = 14.67 a day
4 s9 are 54 th or 54 x 0.0000245 = 0.001323 btc a day = 14.95 a day
s17 = 2225 watts
4 s9's = 5225 watts
a 3 kwatt power difference that is 72 kwatts a day extra or 300 x 72 = 21600 kwatts in 300 days
at 10 cent cost it would be 2160 spent in power
4 s9 with psu for 1200 = possible to find
1 s17 53th pro for 4000 = hard but possible to find
so you spend 2800 extra for state of the art you have 10 cent power 300 days later
1200 + 2160 = 3360 out of pocket
4000 + 0 = 4000 out of pocket and in both cases 2.2 x 24 x 300 x .10 = 1584 for power
so 3360 + 1584 = 4944 and you have 0.3969 btc 4 s9's about 4484 cash
4000 + 1584 = 5584 and you have 0.3895 btc s17 about 4401 cash
so both deals are not good with 10 cent power
we can go back down to 5 cent and you will see that favors the s9 more
2225 = 2.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 = 16020 kwatts at 5 cents = 801 in power
5225 = 5.225 kwatt x 24 x 300 = 37620 kwatts at 5 cents = 1881 in power
so 4000 + 801 = 4801 for s17 you will have about 4401 usd in btc = loser
and 1200 x 1881 = 3081 for s9 you will have about 4484 usd in btc = winner
so at 10 cent both units lose at 300 days
but at 5 cent the 4x s9's kill the 4000 dollar s17
this make prices fucking nuts!!
Keep in mind depreciation is much higher on the low efficiency gear. I'm phasing out my S9 while they still have value..I can sell them at $400 a pop, and they will be worthless in 6 months. High efficiency gear should be valuable for at least a couple years. I think long term. You have to stay ahead of the curve.
Window of profitability is important. S9 has ROI of 200days, but you may not even have 200 days to mine before it becomes unprofitable.
High efficiency gear will stay profitable for long time, even with ever increasing difficulty.
Window of profitability is important. S9 has ROI of 200days, but you may not even have 200 days to mine before it becomes unprofitable.
High efficiency gear will stay profitable for long time, even with ever increasing difficulty.
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Okay direct from innosilicon
https://www.innosilicon.com/html/t3+57t-miner/index.html
uses 80 kwatts a day does about 55th
so 4 bucks a day at 5 cent power
and 3.2 dollars a day at 4 cent power
and 2.4 dollars a day at 3 cent power
October delivery 2310 = 0.226130 btc shipping included
November delivery 2230 = 0.219091 btc shipping included
this unit earns about 0.0013475 btc daily
0.226130/0.0013475 = 167 days for the october order if power is free
0.219091/0.0013475 = 159 days for November order if power is free
167 days at 5 cent power = 668 power cost
159 days at 5 cent power = 636 power cost
167 days at 4 cent power = 534 power cost
159 days at 4 cent power = 509 power cost
167 days at 3 cent power = 401 power cost
159 days at 3 cent power = 382 power cost
So the t57 if it comes in october will not pay back for 167 days unless you have free power and flat price in coin and difficulty stay flat.
If you have 5 cent power you will be looking at 50 more days to break even so the october unit would be 217 to 235 days to break even
next the s9 from bitmain
the s9k does 13.5th 2 cost 798 with shipping to the usa.
so 800 at 11500 is 0.06956 btc for 2 shipped to usa under the trump tax
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020190730112951352E0D2y0TF0621
27th x 0.0000245 = 0.0006615 btc a day
0.06956/0.0006615 = 105 days to pay off if power is free gear arrives in sept
at 5 cent power it cost 1.56 a day to run the unit so at 105 days you are down 164 dollars
at 4 cent power it cost 1.25 a day to run the unit so at 105 days you are down 131 dollars
at 3 cent power it cost .94 a day to run the unit so at 105 days you are down 99 dollars
there is of course the a1041 from avalon
https://blokforge.com/product/canaan-avalon-1041-31th-s-bitcoin-miner-shipping-august/
and there are the 4 models from pangolinminer the whatsminer m20 m20s m21 m21s
they are all now pushed to December delivery dates
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-series/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21s-with-psu/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-with-psu-shipout-during-august-20-september-15/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21-with-psu-shipout-during-august-1020/
right now with all calculations the old school s9k has better break even numbers then any other gear.
you simply need 3-5 cent power and you will break even in under 200 days
of course if you have 10cent power and really want to mine you will be looking at a more efficient piece of gear.
I write this because all the major companies combined are creating a funnel toward the s9k as you best choice to buy if you have 3-5 cent power.
The math says buy s9k's nothing matches their payoff times. (if you have 3 to 5 cent power)
I find this very interesting.
Okay direct from innosilicon
https://www.innosilicon.com/html/t3+57t-miner/index.html
uses 80 kwatts a day does about 55th
so 4 bucks a day at 5 cent power
and 3.2 dollars a day at 4 cent power
and 2.4 dollars a day at 3 cent power
October delivery 2310 = 0.226130 btc shipping included
November delivery 2230 = 0.219091 btc shipping included
this unit earns about 0.0013475 btc daily
0.226130/0.0013475 = 167 days for the october order if power is free
0.219091/0.0013475 = 159 days for November order if power is free
167 days at 5 cent power = 668 power cost
159 days at 5 cent power = 636 power cost
167 days at 4 cent power = 534 power cost
159 days at 4 cent power = 509 power cost
167 days at 3 cent power = 401 power cost
159 days at 3 cent power = 382 power cost
So the t57 if it comes in october will not pay back for 167 days unless you have free power and flat price in coin and difficulty stay flat.
If you have 5 cent power you will be looking at 50 more days to break even so the october unit would be 217 to 235 days to break even
next the s9 from bitmain
the s9k does 13.5th 2 cost 798 with shipping to the usa.
so 800 at 11500 is 0.06956 btc for 2 shipped to usa under the trump tax
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020190730112951352E0D2y0TF0621
27th x 0.0000245 = 0.0006615 btc a day
0.06956/0.0006615 = 105 days to pay off if power is free gear arrives in sept
at 5 cent power it cost 1.56 a day to run the unit so at 105 days you are down 164 dollars
at 4 cent power it cost 1.25 a day to run the unit so at 105 days you are down 131 dollars
at 3 cent power it cost .94 a day to run the unit so at 105 days you are down 99 dollars
there is of course the a1041 from avalon
https://blokforge.com/product/canaan-avalon-1041-31th-s-bitcoin-miner-shipping-august/
and there are the 4 models from pangolinminer the whatsminer m20 m20s m21 m21s
they are all now pushed to December delivery dates
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-series/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21s-with-psu/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-with-psu-shipout-during-august-20-september-15/
https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m21-with-psu-shipout-during-august-1020/
right now with all calculations the old school s9k has better break even numbers then any other gear.
you simply need 3-5 cent power and you will break even in under 200 days
of course if you have 10cent power and really want to mine you will be looking at a more efficient piece of gear.
I write this because all the major companies combined are creating a funnel toward the s9k as you best choice to buy if you have 3-5 cent power.
The math says buy s9k's nothing matches their payoff times. (if you have 3 to 5 cent power)
I find this very interesting.
Going to list gear pricing and break even with:
5 cent power
4 cent power
3 cent power
5 cent power
4 cent power
3 cent power
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