Topic: Gentlemen, i think it's safe to say we're the new halving elite - page 3. (Read 7610 times)

Yup, even in hindsight, we cannot calculate what the effect of the block halving was (because so many factors influence price).
So, trying to predict is futile.

18 months is nothing in this game. Patience is key, sit tight & HODL & you will be rewarded in time.

Not now now, but in beginning of 2017 what is not really now, but some might say tomorrow.
Price will not raise straight after halving but with a 3-6 months delay. So is more then a year til then most likely a year and a half. Lots of things can happen in the meantime.

More bullish news:

"The IMF is not saying much other than there are three crisis epic centers within the emerging market crisis including China, Brazil, Turkey, and Malaysia"

China devalues currency and puts in capital controls = all chinamen run to bitcoin again.

Do not blame XT only. There is malleability too. They can do all these experiments after 2020, when 1 BTC becomes equal to 2020 USD.

See, again, you're looking at bitcoin as something like food. A consumable whose main purpose is NOT speculation.


In that case, the supply reasoning works. But what I was trying to tell you, is bitcoin doesn't work that way. 99+% of the value of bitcoin currently comes from speculation, can we agree on that?

If so, what that means, is that the VAST majority of people owning bitcoins are in hopes of it rising in value. That's the value proposition for them; it's why they bought/mined bitcoins in the first place. It's why they're holding.

IF they cannot expect an increase in value, then there is absolutely no reason for them to hold bitcoins. In which case, they will sell. Again, we're under the assumption that bitcoin does not yet have enough intrinsic value to justify even a fraction of its current price.


But what that means, is that demand and supply are HEAVILY influenced by the price. Let's say the price increases from $200 to $300 (as an example). The people who thought that bitcoin is a good deal at $200-$299 will start selling, because the price is already over their threshold, causing a much higher supply.

Because people don't have a need to buy bitcoins (unlike food, clothes, etc), even if the supply is low, as long as they think it's overpriced, they will not buy it.


Now again, I agree that PERHAPS the halving will have some effect; I said less than 5% but probably less than 1%. I'm not saying it will have absolutely 0 effect.

What I am saying, is that you can't just take the halving by itself, ignore all other variables (because you don't know them) and confidently make predictions about the future. The halving is one, small variable in the grand scheme of things, doing that would be like claiming you know the strength of the US army vs the strength of the Russian army because, well, you have a friend who is an American solider and and a friend who is a Russian solider. Let's ignore the rest of the military because we don't know, right?

What do you think is the likelihood - in percentage terms - of that happening, and why? (Personally, I'd assess the chance to be vanishingly small - so small as to be not worth considering - but I'm interested in the reasoning behind higher values).

or satoshi can volunteer to sell 1800 btc per day to keep the price level.

The error in your reasoning is that all those 21m bitcoins will be available to you if you are willing to pay the market price.
I’m Hoarding Bitcoins, and No You Can’t Have Any

Secondly if you look at the halving from a dollar value demand perspective and assume that currently all mined bitcoins are sold immediately:
3600BTC x 250$ = currently 900,000$ demand per day.

Now lets assume that the dollar value demand is still the same after the halving and that all mined bitcoins are still sold immediately (1800BTC instead of 3600BTC).
Something has to move. The dollar value of a bitcoin has to double to 500$ or the current holders need to be willing to supply those extra 1800BTC per day. Each day, every day.

It will likely be a combination of the two.

The point isn't what I think is overpriced or what YOU think is overpriced. I think bitcoin can be worth $200,000 and not be overpriced.

But what matters is what the WORLD thinks is overpriced, and currently, it seems they think $300+ is overpriced.

Bitcoin's demand is a function of the price point it's at.

Yup! I know, I am just saying that the increase or decrease of Bitcoin will not be very high or low, but predicting it now in the recent halving
and base on that alone I think it still be the same as the last time. Well that is only my prediction.

You should qualify that statement saying nothing happened immediately.
The price now is a lot higher than what it was 4 years ago.

So what is overpriced for you? The actual price we are dealing with?
A price of $500-$600?
There is no answer to that imo. What you consider as too expensive might be a cheap and good entry point for others.

The same debate happened before the last Bitcoin halving in 2012 and nothing actually happened to the price. Of course back in 2012 Bitcoin was much less known to the general community.

But Now Bitcoin is well known now but the halving will occur in next year july/aug 2016, and I think bitcoin will increase by that time! 

Here's the thing. The reason your reasoning is wrong, is because you're looking at this like farmers farming for vegetables or miners mining for ores.

In that case, a decrease in supply is a "real" decrease in supply.


However, bitcoin is different. Bitcoin has a known total supply (about 21 million). Ask a random person who has heard about bitcoin, and they would probably know about the 21 million limit (or at least it'll sound familiar; they'll have seen it somewhere even if they've forgotten). On the other hand, ask people how much bitcoins are mined per day. I bet even many people who own bitcoins can't answer that question.

The real supply of bitcoin is just 21 million.

This is further compounded by the fact that the VAST majority of bitcoin's value right now is in speculation. Bitcoin has very little real use cases right now that gives it value. The reason it's worth $200 something is because people are hoping the price will go up in the future.


In the future when pretty much all the coins have been mined. People put an estimate for how much the market cap of bitcoin will be, and then divide by 21 million to get the value per coin, and they will buy if it's significantly higher than what it is now. So the price is essentially completely dictated by the total possible value of all bitcoins, divided by 21 million.

It's not dictated by how much coins are coming in every day.



So to summarize, as opposed to "real goods" like food, there is real demand. People need it, so when there is less supply, the price will go up. Supply and demand dictates the price.

The MAIN point of bitcoin currently is speculation. That means that rather than demand dictating price, it's the price that's dictating the demand. People don't need overpriced bitcoins.

I totally agree to that, bitcoin fought its way to the top and it deserves some acknowledgements and one way of doing this is getting a coin for ourselves.

Volatility what is that??

Why is nobody looking at things from a logical angle anymore? It's not about what you "feel" will happen. It's about hard facts and elementary human psychology.

The halving will double the price of making bitcoins. This means some miners will be forced to drop out, and some of those dropouts will switch from producing bitcoins to buying them. Others who have hoarded for a while may dump when the price rises, but first the price must rise. For the overall market the supply will shrink which will push the price up assuming the demand remains steady.

The halving is going to push the price up. No way around it. Not in a straight line either, there will be a return of volatility to go with it.

Yes, we had too much hype and speculation until now in Bitcoin ecosystem, even too much. We don't need more of it. I hope that as we grow we will become and seen as very serious ecosystem that depends on its fundamentals and technology.

This is necessary in my opinion if we ever want to become accepted by the masses. Every time there is a speculation, pump and dump, hype we only lose as a community and that's not good at all for our future.

If a rise depends on hype creating artificial demand - that's pretty depressing. I hope there is a rise, but one driven by fundamentals, not hype.