The price will go the path of least resistance. If everybody expects a price pump for the halving, then it simply won't happen. Markets do not work the way you expect them to.
unless you're making the trend, the pump will happen, almost certain, look at litecoin, it happen despite everyone thinking that it was dead, and it was a x15 if i'm not mistaken
the point in that it not will happen when you expect it, most likely not in the same day as the halving like a dating...
Litecoin's pump is because of pyramid schemes in China. It has nothing to do with the halving.
Let me tell you again, that your assumption that everything else will stay equal is so completely and absolutely flawed, I can't understand why you are so stubborn and refuse to accept this fact. The halving is a very small part of the equation, we really have no idea what will happen.
However, I do believe that bitcoin's price will change because of the halving. It's not that the halving itself is a really big factor, but there are many people who, like yourself, cannot understand that.
I predict that sometime before the halving, the price will go up, because people like Amph are going to buy coins in hope of a quick profit when the halving comes. But because the halving itself really is not a big factor at all, that pump does not happen, and then these people will start to lose faith and start dumping, which will crash the price for a little while.
where i did say that the halving is the only thing that will change the price and everything else will stay equal? you can't assume shit on something you don't know, you don't know if demand will increase or not, so i put aside this factor
but you can know for sure 100% that if there are less coins produced, there would be less dumping, unless you think that right now miners are dumping 1800 coins, and after the halving they will dump all the mined supply(1800 coins)
i'm still waiting for the source that it was a ponzi or pyramid about the recent litecoin pump, until now every halving has brought a pump, there were no exception, so why you should think that bitcoin is different, when we are talking about the king here?
the only thing that should be clear, is that the pump will not occur the same day of the halving, it can occur 6 months before or 3 months after, but it was still caused by the halving in any of these case
