Well, now it's really happening, Price is again increasing. In my opinion it's 100% speculation on the halving event, mostly from China.
In last halving event, however, there was only a relatively small price increase in the month the halving occured (November 2012). In the months before halving,
price was even going down.
Now it's different, people are already speculating on the event before it occurs. Why?
For me the explanation is: In 2012, Bitcoiners had experienced the short-lived 2011 rally, but were also deeply depressed by the bear market that drove price down to $2 in end-2011. It was not clear that Bitcoin would have the media coverage and success it finally had one year later. So speculation on the halving event was not present.
Now, we have experienced the november 2013 hype and we know how high it can go and how fast "it can happen". People are talking about "halving" everywhere. So, why not buy some BTC to speculate on a price increase? So the prophecy becomes self-fulfilling.
I think price will go a bit higher than now, but maybe not that high as some people think. There is no Willy this year and stronger competition from altcoins with real improvements over BTC.
