Try a different approach: what profit do miners make? Given the life time of their equipment before the hash rate makes it worthless, the equipment, electricity and capital cost should be less than the revenue of mined bitcoins.
It's can't be too much, as more people would join them and competition lowers the expected profit. So let's assume it's 10-20%. The block halving is included in this estimate, as miners know exactly when it will happen.
This means each block produces 2.5 to 5 BTC profit now, and after the halving some mining equipment won't be worth the electricity anymore. Hash rate can go down a bit, and the remaining miners get a lower profit with a bit less competition.
Current daily volume in bitcoin sales is 115,256 BTC. That is 800 BTC per block on average. Newly mined bitcoins make up 3% of the daily volume. That will go to 1.5% after the halving if the rest of the transactions stay the same. I don't expect losing 1.5% of the daily volume to have much influence on the price. The effect on miners is much larger though.
Topic: Getting closer to Halving but .. no increase ? - page 6. (Read 10303 times)
The halving is indeed getting closer but this is not saying the price must rise before it, I even think the price is going down before the halving and after the halving rise to a high amount.
A lot of people are also saying this in the speculations section and I think they are right.
The price action will be contrary to what the majority expect,as it usually happens in such cases. A lot of people are also saying this in the speculations section and I think they are right.
The halving is indeed getting closer but this is not saying the price must rise before it, I even think the price is going down before the halving and after the halving rise to a high amount.
A lot of people are also saying this in the speculations section and I think they are right.
A lot of people are also saying this in the speculations section and I think they are right.
According to preev the price of bitcoin is very stable at 423 price and i think it will increase more after month ends. Just lets hope that the price will gradually increase before block halving ends..
There is slow increase of the price for some weeks now. If the trend continues, the price will be $500 in May or June.
According to preev the price of bitcoin is very stable at 423 price and i think it will increase more after month ends. Just lets hope that the price will gradually increase before block halving ends..
I see a little but constant leverage up.... probably an increase could be divided in the long time...
Yes the increase in bitcoin price will be gradually so that it can maintain its stability and wont crash again like the past halving.
I like the slow rise of the bitcoin. This will make the mass adoption easier. If it is too volatile, people will not invest.
Yes if its to volatile people will have a hard time thinking weather if its good to invest in bitcoin so the slow rise is good for bitcoin.
I see a little but constant leverage up.... probably an increase could be divided in the long time...
Yes the increase in bitcoin price will be gradually so that it can maintain its stability and wont crash again like the past halving.
I like the slow rise of the bitcoin. This will make the mass adoption easier. If it is too volatile, people will not invest.
I see a little but constant leverage up.... probably an increase could be divided in the long time...
Yes the increase in bitcoin price will be gradually so that it can maintain its stability and wont crash again like the past halving.
I see a little but constant leverage up.... probably an increase could be divided in the long time...
The increase is slow at the moment. So it could be good for the long term price rise and mass adoption.
I see a little but constant leverage up.... probably an increase could be divided in the long time...
Could someone explain why everyone seems to think there will be a huge jump in the price of bitcoin due to the halvening? 
I mean, yeah sure they supply will be reduced, but it makes more sense to me that people will anticipate it and thus some of this would be priced in. No?
Maybe a steady increase yes, but a jump would required everyone to be taken by surprise.
I mean, yeah sure they supply will be reduced, but it makes more sense to me that people will anticipate it and thus some of this would be priced in. No?
Maybe a steady increase yes, but a jump would required everyone to be taken by surprise.
The immenent price rise could happen in the May or June. The price will rise to $500. After halving, the price will be $800.
Yes, I also think the same the price may be start to increase in the month of May or June when there will only one or two months remaining in the halving to occur, and I think at that time the price will start increasing and will reach to about $700. 
The bitcoin will not increase before the halving, the bitcoin will increase when the halving has been done, maybe the price will only go to a higher amount with some dollars before it because of the people that are gonna invest in the bitcoin before the halving, although we have to keep in mind the bitcoin is unpredictable.
We are still awhile out from halving IMO. I am speculating that we won't see big movement until late May.
I think, now the buyers are waiting for some more closer to the July and after that they will start buying bitcoins for holding for the halving and at that time you will notice a big increase in the price of bitcoin.There will be a big increase in the bitcoin price as the months pass by and with the halving is getting near bitcoin users are buying and holding their bitcoin.
Don't expect a price rise until halving actually takes place, because the price has already doubled from where it was previously...
Precisely, you should just buy and wait for the halving to actually happen, because then only it will rise and till then, you will only see this stability of the price between $400 - $450, it won't even reach $500 till halving occurs...
We are still awhile out from halving IMO. I am speculating that we won't see big movement until late May.
I think, now the buyers are waiting for some more closer to the July and after that they will start buying bitcoins for holding for the halving and at that time you will notice a big increase in the price of bitcoin.There will be a big increase in the bitcoin price as the months pass by and with the halving is getting near bitcoin users are buying and holding their bitcoin.
We are still awhile out from halving IMO. I am speculating that we won't see big movement until late May.
I think, now the buyers are waiting for some more closer to the July and after that they will start buying bitcoins for holding for the halving and at that time you will notice a big increase in the price of bitcoin. 
People just expect the halving to be a price jump on the same day or something lol.
When the halving is a gradual price increase then a immediate one..
When the halving is a gradual price increase then a immediate one..
no it's not a gradual increase, basically always the halving happen with a massive shot to the sky
and then you get a dump after a certain time frame, this because average joe are not coordinate with the bot that play on the market, or with the whales itself
so when everyone begin to buy many other jump on the rush
There are a lot of people that is saying that the value will be not higher in the future and they think that because the value now around this time is not high enough to rise.
And they are right I think, we should wait a longer time until we can sell it with some nice profit.
And they are right I think, we should wait a longer time until we can sell it with some nice profit.
Never mind if there's no increase at the moment. It's a good thing some roller coaster price has been happening today cause if all speculated halving price will happen we can never see such "cheap" price today.
It's clear no pre-halving effect has been happening now and if there's then it's good. Just keep on your usual doings and just ride every wave that the bitcoin price will bring to us.
It's clear no pre-halving effect has been happening now and if there's then it's good. Just keep on your usual doings and just ride every wave that the bitcoin price will bring to us.
Is it normal ? I wasn't here when the old halving block rewards happened before so I'm not sure how things work exactly but logically ... should we see a price increase (at least little bit) since we are getting closer and closer ?
if you hope that price will rise by 10$ in day before halving, then i have to say to you that it won't happen, if it would, then we could hope for price like 3000$ after halving but we predict price around 1000$ only
if you would look closely to price of bitcoin, you would see that price rises, by 5$ in week or so, and that is better than nothing
Jump to: