Pages:
Author

Topic: [GLBSE] ABSORB - Emulating BTC/USD margin trading (Read 4076 times)

donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
Winners may wish to consider reinvesting their earnings in a new long position via POLY.
Indeed. I picked some up Smiley
Do you plan on having a bot on the Bid side too?
The bot is also bidding, you'll notice there's always a bid for 50 bonds at the face value.

I'm the massive loser on this and would like to play again:) Thanks.
Soon there will be POLY.10.-2, which works differently but also allows you to take a short position.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 501
peace
Winners may wish to consider reinvesting their earnings in a new long position via POLY.

Indeed. I picked some up Smiley
Do you plan on having a bot on the Bid side too?
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
Winners may wish to consider reinvesting their earnings in a new long position via POLY.
Sold out! Any plans to issue more? Or the short variety?
Sure, all in due time.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Winners may wish to consider reinvesting their earnings in a new long position via POLY.
Sold out! Any plans to issue more? Or the short variety?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I just earned 1.97 % in 2 minutes buying just before the buy back  Grin
That's 518320 % annualised! Cheesy
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
it seems that whenever it hits 5.97  Meni sells a bunch ... Smiley
Really, I want it to hit $6 already so I can get it over with.

High: 6.00000 Smiley
Indeed. ABSORB.1.4-6.LONG has been triggered, and all bonds were bought back for 1 BTC each (the buyback feature worked like a charm on my end, I hope people actually got their coins).

Note that if the >=$6 trades are cancelled in the next few days, ABSORB.1.4-6.SHORT will still be eligible. If not they will be bought back for 0 or a token amount.

Winners may wish to consider reinvesting their earnings in a new long position via POLY.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 501
peace
it seems that whenever it hits 5.97  Meni sells a bunch ... Smiley
Really, I want it to hit $6 already so I can get it over with.

High: 6.00000 Smiley
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
it seems that whenever it hits 5.97  Meni sells a bunch ... Smiley
Really, I want it to hit $6 already so I can get it over with.
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
it seems that whenever it hits 5.97  Meni sells a bunch ... Smiley

joking of couse!
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
Looks like both the bet on betsofbitco.in and ABSORB will very soon pay out on the long side - 5.95 USD per BTC reached...
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
I've done some more calculations regarding the effective leverage of investing in ABSORB bonds (added to OP), and realized that it's too sensitive to the current price, and not very intuitive. Because of this, I don't believe I will issue new ABSORB series.

Instead, I intend to offer POLY, a margin instrument which is riskier for me, but should be easier to use.
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
I created a bet on betsofbitco.in that is essentially the same as this asset ("Bitcoin will hit 4 USD before hitting 6 USD"), maybe it will be helpful to use as prediction market or to get in late/with fewer coins invested/no trade fees: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=423

By the way, from time to time there's really money lying on the street more or less - I still have to loose on a bet and returns are about pirate's rates.
hero member
Activity: 609
Merit: 501
peace
SHORT has sold out, but LONG hasn't had a lot of demand. Since I do want to sell them to balance my position, I've reduced their price to 0.62 BTC.

Just bought some !
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
SHORT has sold out, but LONG hasn't had a lot of demand. Since I do want to sell them to balance my position, I've reduced their price to 0.62 BTC.
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
when will trading start?
I've put them on sale a few hours ago. Apparently GLBSE clips the ticker symbol in a strange way, until this is sorted out they can be distinguished by their description, the long says "leveraged purchase" and the short says "short selling".

I'm not that interested in the value finding for the bond itself (according to your example it should be just (1 + your cut percentage) * ( (trade price - lower limit) / (upper limit - lower limit) ) and the other way round for the other half of the deal, what I find interesting is that you decided to do this a bit assymmetrical by issuing 400 long and 200 short bonds. Does this implicate that you believe in short twice as much as long or the other way around, from a mathematical perspective?
I "believe more" in the short bond when taken as part of my entire portfolio. I need more bitcoins than what I want my BTC position to be; so if I buy bitcoins above and beyond my desired position, I need to simultaneously short them. I used to use Bitcoinica for this, now I hope to do this with issuing excess long bonds. I've also priced them cheaper than the short bonds in relation to the respective baseline value. If there's demand for both bonds I'll issue more of both, the difference will correspond to my target position delta.

if long is correct, you'll need approx. 1 share income pf short to cover for the profit, however only ~ half of long shares have an equivalent short share, so you'd need to pay out of your own cut or pocket for the rest, correct?
Right. For me this acts as insurance against a drop in BTC exchange rate. If long is correct I'll need to pay extra, but it doesn't bother me as much since in this scenario my BTC holdings become more valuable.
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
It already did, you can buy them now.

I'm not that interested in the value finding for the bond itself (according to your example it should be just (1 + your cut percentage) * ( (trade price - lower limit) / (upper limit - lower limit) ) and the other way round for the other half of the deal, what I find interesting is that you decided to do this a bit assymmetrical by issuing 400 long and 200 short bonds. Does this implicate that you believe in short twice as much as long or the other way around, from a mathematical perspective?

if long is correct, you'll need approx. 1 share income pf short to cover for the profit, however only ~ half of long shares have an equivalent short share, so you'd need to pay out of your own cut or pocket for the rest, correct?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
when will trading start?
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Wat
This post reminds me why I love the free market and bitcoin Smiley
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1054
Bonds are now being offered, ABSORB.1.4-6.LONG for 0.678 BTC and ABSORB.1.4-6.SHORT for 0.351 BTC. Prices are subject to change.

Hi Meni,

I like your constant innovation. Just a point of clarification: How would you handle something like the Mt Gox hack where bitcoins are traded down to less than a dollar, but the trades are subsequently reversed. I would presume that wouldn't count as a trigger for your offer, but it might be good to clarify it.
Good question. A trade will only trigger the bonds if it is reasonably assured that it will not be reversed, for example if a day passes and there is no report of suspicious activity.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Hi Meni,

I like your constant innovation. Just a point of clarification: How would you handle something like the Mt Gox hack where bitcoins are traded down to less than a dollar, but the trades are subsequently reversed. I would presume that wouldn't count as a trigger for your offer, but it might be good to clarify it.
Pages:
Jump to: