I'm just a concerned investor who was going to invest 100s of BTC in this. 2.5%/week insured by some of the most trusted members sounded like a very good idea until I realized the issuers and insurers have no good reason to offer it.
ffs. I already outlined a scenario, which you have yet to put a hole in.
I don't understand your scenario. I just reread the thread, and the example of having USD assets and being short BTC makes no sense to me. This would lose out doubly if BTC price were to increase.
Yes. That is what a short is. It loses if BTC price rises, and it wins if BTC price falls. So one scenario is:
1. Issuer drives a nice car
2. Issuer is willing to bet that car on pirate not defaulting
3. Issuer wants to drive the car during the bet
4. Either:
4.a Issuer is willing to bet that if pirate defaults, BTC price will be lower than time of issue
4.b Issuer takes a "long" CFD so that if pirate defaults, issuer will have made money on the price rise
In this scenario:
1. If pirate does not default, issuer "has their cake and eats it too" by driving their car while making interest off of the net worth of the car. By 20 weeks, issuer is in the green and has made more than liabilities.
2. If pirate does default in less than 20 weeks:
2.a Under 4.a:
2.a.i if price has risen, issuer loses out. They sell their car, pay back the principle, and buy a cheaper car. Bad bet, tough break
2.a.ii if price has fallen, issuer sells their car, pays back the principle, and buys a cheaper car
2.b Under 4.b:
2.b.i if price has risen, issuer has gained money via the CFD and interest. Issuer sells car, pays back principal, and buys a cheaper car. Alternatively, the CFD + interest covers losses and the issuer comes away with a win.
2.b.ii if price has fallen, the issuer has made lost money on the CFD and gained money on interest. Issuer sells their car, pays back the principle, and buys a cheaper car. Bad bet, tough break.
There. Smart accounting isn't that hard to come by. I think imsaguy (or INAU) knows pirate in person (or is pirate
), so he's willing to make the bet on pirate. As for the bet on BTC's price, plenty of people do that. In fact, if you own any BTC, you're taking a non-leveraged long position. This asset is just a convenient bundle.