Topic: [GLBSE] V.HRL Vendor's High Risk Loan up to 3% interest weekly - page 2. (Read 8965 times)

True. Perhaps the percentage of good investors is very low around here.

I agree, but it is disheartening.  OBSI.HRPT just sucked ~4000 bitcoins out of the investing market.  That is 4000 bitcoins that won't flow to legitimate businesses.

But good investors should be able to see through this. When offered one share with 30% return per month, or another at 10% return per year, the good investor should realize there is a difference in the risk of the two offerings. Not everybody is stupid enough to dump all their money into the highest risk place. Those people who go into the less risky ventures will continue investing, because they have not lost their principal like those who jumped at the shiniest scam.

It is also the reason lending bitcoins is a bad idea.

Yeah -  totally agree.

The sad thing is, real companies shares or bonds can never really materialize on GLBSE or other exchanges until these ponzi scams are removed.  When comparing between a return of 10% a year or one that gives 10% in one month, the temptation of greed is too much.  Then when the security collapses and the person learned their lesson, they don't have any money to invest in a realistic security.

I wish all these ponzi schemes would die in a fire. I hope they all get delisted.

This asset should have not passed the smell test imo.

Im not saying that (if you meant to ask why they should be better off); If  usagi uses common sense and acts in the interest of his bond holders, he will try to get out  of this ponzi for the best price he possibly can, however little that is likely to be.  Im advising anyone else to do the same.

But if instead usagi continues to act against the interest of his bond holders, and continues trying to cook his books by buying a few more shares of low volume worthless rubbish he already owns, to manipulate the price and his accounting, then V.HRL bondholders could make use of that. Its kind of a logical consequence if someone is trying to push up an already overvalued price, someone else can benefit from it by selling to him.


He might not do it for Nyan.C, or he might not do it because I predicted it now, we shall see. But he has done it several times, due diligence has nothing to do with it; its all about keeping up appearances. For less than 1 BTC he can often buy 100 BTC worth of fake book value, at least for a while. E.g., he bought AMB at 0.45 BTC, valuing their 1 BFL single at 450BTC.  That makes no sense, until  you realize it cost him only 0.45 BTC and let him put almost 100 BTC extra in his BMF NAV list, and much of that ended up in Nyan as well, and probably CPA too.

edit: I just notice he marked down his "real value" of V.HRL from 1 to 0.5 BTC, so you might be out of luck. Although Id take 0.5 BTC for V.HRL if I could get it. YMMV.

Now I am really starting to wonder if you guys have a life besides getting in Usagis's way...
(why should be Vendor and his shareholders any better than Usagi and his?)

Well, I'll be watching the number of V.HRL in NYAN very closely now. I have seen incredible things happen, it might well be he'll do as you suggest; even though he should for sure see this post if he even does a minimum diligence before taking decisions.

Meanwhile your 900 obsi.hrpt bonds have dropped from 0.1 to 0.003 and are paying out zero in dividend so your "4 weeks to regenerate" have just turned in to about 4 centuries.   Even assuming you ever owned those bonds and werent running your own ponzi. 

Now fortunately for V.HRL bond holders, there is still some hope; usagi is invested in this. In fact he owns over half the V.HRL bonds, and judging by other assets, at least for some time,  he will  gladly buy your (soon to be worthless) bonds if the price drops, to keep up the nav in his books. He is still valuing V.HRL at 1 BTC per bond in his books, I suggest other bond holders jump on the opportunity.

Strategy is simple: sell one or two bonds in to the nonexisting bid wall so GLSBE price collapses, then put the rest as asks just below current lowest asks and let usagi pick them up as he tries to restore the price. You will make a loss of course, but at worst you could recover ~50% which is not nearly as bad as when holding on to these. That loss will be carried by Usagi, or more precisely, Nyan.C bond holders.

Dividend paid.

Market analysis and further strategy.

As I see now the market is very depressed. Nearly all of my holdings lost value in the last couple of weeks so the NAV now stands at 0.91. But the main reason for the recent drop is the uncertainty around OBSI so the five day average price gone from 0.102 to 0.093 in days. I decided apply a more aggressive reinvesting strategy in the next few weeks to stabilize the value of V.HRL

The general prices are low and going south although the incoming dividends not affected as much so there is money coming in to get the NAV back to 1.0 again. There is 277 outstanding bonds and the total value of holding is 252. Now 25 btc needed.

Incoming weekly dividend: 9.9
At 1% rate total dividend to pay out: 2.77
Money for reinvestment each week: 7.13

It will take about 4 weeks to regenerate.
I do not think there is a imminent risk of  OBSI default as he stated he will not issue new bonds till the market calms down. But I do not want to get more OBSI then the 900 which is already in the portfolio under any circumstances.

For further stabilisation of the asset I will extend the period not taking fee from 8 weeks to 10 weeks.

Dividend paid.

I may rename it as I use the loan to invest into various high risk glbse instruments. High Risk Leverage sounds better?

I did look it up in the dictionary:

"Definition of 'Leverage'
1. The use of various financial instruments or borrowed capital, such as margin, to increase the potential return of an investment."


I found out that if I will not discuss the nature of my investment then I will not earn trust at all and also I will be missing some very important feedback so I am not up to the contract in this case, but it was a clear demand from the members of the forum. 

The NAV is 0.962 now from 0.964 in about 4 hours. That is because the 5 days average does not follow the market in the instant. The main reason for this drop is NYAN.C which takes up about 10% of the portfolio.

I will need to allocate more money for reinvesting purposes if I want to make sure the value of V.HRL will  be maintained at or above 1.0. Since I reduced my holding of OBSI from the initial 50% to 34% there is less left to reinvest and pay high dividends. I am planing to reduce it even further for the sake of security.

I decided to pay 2.4% dividend at least until the NAV regenerated.  Assuming no large drop in assets value  and incoming dividends, it can be back at 1.0 in about five weeks. I still allow  some devaluation due to the 5 days average that’s why I will not pay 2.8%. An other reason for it is my aim to reduce OBSI to a level when it will go from one day to another, will not cause serious damage to V.HRL.

Thanks for you both for your useful feedback.

+1 Great perspective on this. Also, keeping the asset backing at the valuation allows for higher returns in the long run (instead of letting little losses slowly add up and whittle away at the worth of the share).

If you're not expecting returns to be too poor, you may be able to space it out over more than two weeks. While that's the fastest it can be done reasonably, it can be done over say five weeks to still keep immediate returns high.

I think he adequately disclosed that this is "sort of" a loan and "sort of" an investment fund.

"This is a High Risk Loan with a face value of 1 BTC. Each bond will pay up to 0.03 BTC on every Wednesday.
The nature of the recipient of the loan will not be discussed.
This loan is not guaranteed and is provided on a best effort basis."

Having the value of the bond track the actual value of the assets is the responsible thing to do. That prevents investors from thinking everything is fine until there's a sudden, complete default. The reduced payout is a signal to you of the actual condition of the investment that allows you to decide whether it still makes sense for you to invest in it.

If everyone insists that every investment vehicle pay out unrealistic returns, all that will be left are the worst of the scams.

when did a loan become an investment fund. In my mind, you should pay out 3% until you pay the money back regardless of circumstances.

I have done a quick calculation. The NAV/bond ratio is 0.964 now, based on 5 day average.  It lost value mostly because the NYAN.C and TEEK.B price drop. I would like to get it back to 1.0

Total outstanding bond: 261
Total NAV: 251

So 10 BTC missing.

Projected weekly incoming dividend is 9.44 BTC. If I want the NAV to be 1.0 within 2 weeks I am only able to pay out 4.44 BTC as dividend which makes 0.017 BTC per share for 2 weeks.

I really would like to do that, because In my opinion it is better to have a bond which keeps it's value although from time to time pays less then the maximum of 3% weekly. Than have a bond which pays 3% but keep loosing it's value.

As at the first 8 weeks I will not take any fees so I don't need to involve it in this calculation.

Please let me know what do you suggest.

Portfolio updated:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1101210

Quick update.

OBSI is 35% now. I try to update the portfolio soon for you to have a careful look. I am accepting further criticism.