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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1039. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
August 09, 2014, 01:58:39 PM
A quick look at the charts show a steady decline of almost all of them.


Maybe I'll put together a site that charts only crypto-coins which have been around for 1yr+. Two columns: One for charts of coins that are trading for more BTC than 1yr ago, and the other for coins that are trading for less BTC than a year ago. Guess which column would be *overwhelmingly* longer... Maybe that'd make the point more obvious to some of the weaker minds out there.

Wait... Are there *ANY* coins more than a year old which are trading higher relative to BTC now vs 1yr ago?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 09, 2014, 01:45:09 PM
A quick look at the charts show a steady decline of almost all of them.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
August 09, 2014, 01:39:24 PM
Perhaps the hype in alts is still to come...
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 09, 2014, 12:53:08 PM
Like I said,  the majority of investors even in a promising investment space will lose money. That's because scammers are inevitably attracted. 
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
August 09, 2014, 12:28:33 PM
hopefully, this lull will kill off several (a few dozen) altcoins.


I think it's gonna get worse before it gets rational. The mentality in the alt-scene reminds me of of the dotcom bubble. Everyone is screaming "New Paradigm!", "Old Rules Don't Apply!". It's the same phenomenon; they're correctly seeing that this new idea of blockchain-based ledgers opens up a whole new world of possibilities, but they're then incorrectly - and sometimes even explicitly - saying that core human economic principles no longer apply and its a completely new field, even in that regard. The consequence is that valuations will be hugely distorted relative to fundamentals, and many many participants will be burned when valuations inevitably (and quickly) correct.

Anyways, I think, yeah, the lull will probably kill off a few dozen alts. But there are hundreds of scam-coins; didn't someone count over 1000 recently? And besides, the "platform" coins are only just getting going. I like the tech Ethereum is trying to do, but I think it's likely a terrible investment given their distro model, what they've raised already, and the opportunity cost of bitcoin itself. Maybe an ultimate market-crash of such a "flagship" alt will be what triggers reality in the alt market.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 09, 2014, 12:08:10 PM
stick with it, boys.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
August 09, 2014, 05:37:07 AM
Not kill, just low prices.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 09, 2014, 04:33:28 AM
the charts of all the alts look horrific.  most investors in cryptocurrencies will lose money.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 09, 2014, 04:25:41 AM
hopefully, this lull will kill off several (a few dozen) altcoins.
legendary
Activity: 1135
Merit: 1166
August 09, 2014, 03:32:32 AM
iirc, the utxo set takes up about 75% of RAM required to run a node.  as i run 4 nodes myself, it takes a minimum of 1GB RAM to run smoothly meaning 750MB could be estimated for the utxo set itself.  that's pretty big to be including in a block...
Not in the block, alongside the block.

Just like when people merge mine Namecoin the nmc blocks aren't included in the btc blocks.

The merged-mine implementations that don't include the memory fix: (mutable vs imutable storage) and no auxpow data in cblockindex (blocks stored in memory) will eat up alot of RAM... so far only Devcoin and I0coin are the ones that have this fix and only Devcoin is running on 0.9.2 (currently in testing) with all the other fixes that bitcoin rolled up along the way included. So for most of these incompatible alt-coins who now wish to merge-mine (because I called that they would, and the ones that dont will die) are now suffering from either memory bloat issues or incorrect implementions/bugs and its next to impossible for a general programmer to port it over because its increasingly convoluted code to keep track of.

Note that Namecoin also doesn't keep the auxpow in memory (CBlockIndex) or in the blkindex.dat file any longer.  I have removed this artefact (from times before I hacked on the code) recently.

You still need it in blnkindex.dat unless you dont care about not having any thin clients or external clients using "getheaders"

Nope.  Currently, Namecoin doesn't allow "getheaders" since no client uses it and I didn't want to leave it there completely untested.  But in a previous development version, I implemented it just fine - you can just load the full block from disk if you really need it (someone sends a "getheaders") - and optionally cache it in memory, subject to your favourite heuristics for removing the data from memory again.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
August 09, 2014, 02:23:12 AM
Hey look!

Dow goes up, Dow goes down,  gold goes up, gold goes down. Meanwhile;

Bitcoin goes UP!

Chart I'm looking at has BTC trending down for a month.  The bad news, though, is that the imbalance is heavy on the supply side.  At this point I'll be surprised to see a selling opportunity which works for me in 2014, and not at all surprised to seen some significant downside in the intrim.  Oh well.



LTC didnt reach target for me means its dragging it all down. Physcologically we are not ready for the next uptick, for me, until that level is tested, unless we go up and then come crash down later on which is not bullish long term... anyways just what worked for me in trading forex over the years... you build up an intuition of levels that must test before the real trend resumes. Something you cant really teach.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
August 09, 2014, 01:19:49 AM
Hey look!

Dow goes up, Dow goes down,  gold goes up, gold goes down. Meanwhile;

Bitcoin goes UP!

Chart I'm looking at has BTC trending down for a month.  The bad news, though, is that the imbalance is heavy on the supply side.  At this point I'll be surprised to see a selling opportunity which works for me in 2014, and not at all surprised to seen some significant downside in the intrim.  Oh well.

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
August 08, 2014, 06:03:34 PM
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 08, 2014, 05:55:21 PM
Hey look!

Dow goes up, Dow goes down,  gold goes up, gold goes down. Meanwhile;

Bitcoin goes UP!
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 251
Dolphie Selfie
August 08, 2014, 04:56:30 PM
Some things I don't quite get, though:

  • why does this require deterministic ordering of txs in mempool?
  • does this require that all txs a miner includes in a block are properly broadcast beforehand?
  • would this require a hardfork or can it be used off-chain (so to say) by a subgroup of willing miners?

1) This is needed to construct the merkle tree. Txs are grouped pairwise to build the nodes of the next level in the tree. The pairs are concatenated for the hashing, so the order is relevant. Currently the order is defined by the list of txs in the published block.

2) Yes, although I think the receiving miner could request missing tx(s).

3) To my understanding this does not need a hardfork, because the blocks are still built by the same rules.


Now I ask myself what happens in case of the remaining 1%? Maybe the failure rate can be reduced by publishing multiple lookup tables of the same set?

maybe the publishing miner can include the 1% explicitly (he can determine which ones are affected himself and include the remainder). This would destroy the "constant size" property, but it would lessen the propagation cost of block size by ~99%, right?


Ah, of course, this makes sense!
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 08, 2014, 02:16:23 PM
i think the UTXO set will have to have a pre-agreed order that will need to be synced amongst all miners in real-time.  then, the successful miner can publish the header hash along with some signal as to how far down in that list he went before he stopped adding tx's.  then, all other miners will know how to verify the published header hash and remove those tx's from the utxo set before moving on to the next block.

Yes, as I understand it, the trick is the deterministic order. The "signal as to how far down in that list" is the thing gavin tweeted about.

how reliable is a synced utxo set across all miners?

I don't think it is the utxo set, that has to be in an deterministic order, but the txs in the mempool. The utxo set is a result of the valid blockchain, so it should be synchronized already (except a node regards a block as valid, which later will become orphaned).

Gavin proposed to use "Invertible Bloom Lookup Tables". The lookup table tells the miner which transactions from its mempool should be considered for the verification of the published blockheader. Because now the miner knows which txs are used to form the block and in which order, he can reconstruct the merkle root and compare that against the published blockheader. However the proposed "Invertible Bloom Lookup Tables" are not 100% reliable. From a quick glance at the paper I found, that about <1% of keys are lost during an experiment with 10000 keys. Keys can be seen as txs in this case.

I just read the relevant parts of a paper explaining ITLB (Invertible Bloom Lookup Tables)... quite an interesting data structure. It has a constant size (pre-chosen) and allows storing (key, value) pairs. "insert" and "delete" operations are efficient. "get" may fail and "list" may return partial results.

I can see how an ITLB of some constant size might be used for block announcements by miners.

Some things I don't quite get, though:

  • why does this require deterministic ordering of txs in mempool?
  • does this require that all txs a miner includes in a block are properly broadcast beforehand?
  • would this require a hardfork or can it be used off-chain (so to say) by a subgroup of willing miners?

Now I ask myself what happens in case of the remaining 1%? Maybe the failure rate can be reduced by publishing multiple lookup tables of the same set?

maybe the publishing miner can include the 1% explicitly (he can determine which ones are affected himself and include the remainder). This would destroy the "constant size" property, but it would lessen the propagation cost of block size by ~99%, right?
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
August 08, 2014, 02:13:37 PM
why would you do that?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ultimate-blockchain-compression-w-trust-free-lite-nodes-88208

If it ever becomes possible to do so without risking the integrity of the ledger, I would like Bitcoin to be able to discard transaction history.

Right now storing 100% of history is the easiest way to safeguard the ledger, but it also means we're subsidizing surveillance.

In a perfect world we'd only need to keep a P2P-validated UTXO set and enough history to detect tampering, and let the people who want to store everything forever so they can perform graph analysis pay for that themselves.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
August 08, 2014, 02:07:13 PM
iirc, the utxo set takes up about 75% of RAM required to run a node.  as i run 4 nodes myself, it takes a minimum of 1GB RAM to run smoothly meaning 750MB could be estimated for the utxo set itself.  that's pretty big to be including in a block...
Not in the block, alongside the block.

Just like when people merge mine Namecoin the nmc blocks aren't included in the btc blocks.

The merged-mine implementations that don't include the memory fix: (mutable vs imutable storage) and no auxpow data in cblockindex (blocks stored in memory) will eat up alot of RAM... so far only Devcoin and I0coin are the ones that have this fix and only Devcoin is running on 0.9.2 (currently in testing) with all the other fixes that bitcoin rolled up along the way included. So for most of these incompatible alt-coins who now wish to merge-mine (because I called that they would, and the ones that dont will die) are now suffering from either memory bloat issues or incorrect implementions/bugs and its next to impossible for a general programmer to port it over because its increasingly convoluted code to keep track of.

Note that Namecoin also doesn't keep the auxpow in memory (CBlockIndex) or in the blkindex.dat file any longer.  I have removed this artefact (from times before I hacked on the code) recently.

You still need it in blnkindex.dat unless you dont care about not having any thin clients or external clients using "getheaders"
legendary
Activity: 1135
Merit: 1166
August 08, 2014, 01:59:28 PM
iirc, the utxo set takes up about 75% of RAM required to run a node.  as i run 4 nodes myself, it takes a minimum of 1GB RAM to run smoothly meaning 750MB could be estimated for the utxo set itself.  that's pretty big to be including in a block...
Not in the block, alongside the block.

Just like when people merge mine Namecoin the nmc blocks aren't included in the btc blocks.

The merged-mine implementations that don't include the memory fix: (mutable vs imutable storage) and no auxpow data in cblockindex (blocks stored in memory) will eat up alot of RAM... so far only Devcoin and I0coin are the ones that have this fix and only Devcoin is running on 0.9.2 (currently in testing) with all the other fixes that bitcoin rolled up along the way included. So for most of these incompatible alt-coins who now wish to merge-mine (because I called that they would, and the ones that dont will die) are now suffering from either memory bloat issues or incorrect implementions/bugs and its next to impossible for a general programmer to port it over because its increasingly convoluted code to keep track of.

Note that Namecoin also doesn't keep the auxpow in memory (CBlockIndex) or in the blkindex.dat file any longer.  I have removed this artefact (from times before I hacked on the code) recently.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
August 08, 2014, 01:36:11 PM
iirc, the utxo set takes up about 75% of RAM required to run a node.  as i run 4 nodes myself, it takes a minimum of 1GB RAM to run smoothly meaning 750MB could be estimated for the utxo set itself.  that's pretty big to be including in a block...
Not in the block, alongside the block.

Just like when people merge mine Namecoin the nmc blocks aren't included in the btc blocks.

The merged-mine implementations that don't include the memory fix: (mutable vs imutable storage) and no auxpow data in cblockindex (blocks stored in memory) will eat up alot of RAM... so far only Devcoin and I0coin are the ones that have this fix and only Devcoin is running on 0.9.2 (currently in testing) with all the other fixes that bitcoin rolled up along the way included. So for most of these incompatible alt-coins who now wish to merge-mine (because I called that they would, and the ones that dont will die) are now suffering from either memory bloat issues or incorrect implementions/bugs and its next to impossible for a general programmer to port it over because its increasingly convoluted code to keep track of.

which is exactly why i've been warning everyone about these leech coins or sidechains that wish to piggyback themselves onto the Bitcoin mining network to secure themselves.

Well merged-mining is still better than POS, and now with LTC asics you have scrypt merged-miners aswell... I think its a great thing. But those that have strong dev communites will survive. With Devcoin since its address compatible with bitcoin its more of a trivial task to keep the port and then the thin clients and external tools all just work... it was a smart decision to do so... so it really is a viable alternative but others may not be so lucky a few years down the road with some major structural changes to the codebase. I would much rather support merged-mine coins over some random pos coin because of the inability of those pos coins to keep up with the development power of bitcoin.

If you think about it conceptually from a bigger picture.. none of these alts can exist without bitcoin anyway, so it makes sense that without bitcoin hash power they would simply be not secure... but they are flexible to find another high hash parent if that ever happens.
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