Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1204. (Read 2032266 times)
CD, you are one of the very few who saw that price follows difficult, very cool 
every time i say that people tell me im a witch!
every time i say that people tell me im a witch!
Yeah it took me a while to realize it, because at first it looks like a typical economic fallacy, maybe like the Labor Theory of Value sneaking in. But cypher is exactly right, people are trying to get BTC and they see two ways: buy or mine. If everyone is piling into mining, that will push the price lower than it otherwise would have been. That means, for instance, in the summer when the price was range-bound and everyone was jumping into mining, the price should have been continuing its exponential growth with no slowdown. All that happened was some of that growth was siphoned off into the mining sector even as the network effects continued and Bitcoin kept mushrooming. That excess started to slosh back into Bitcoin in October.
yeah i know, i assumed it was the other way around, but when you read the charts, no way to deny it.
just wait until this next round of asics (jan to mark) makes the rate go crazy again! next sumer we will see $5,000 easy
But given that knowledge, isn't the amount of money being put into mining hardware the important factor that shows demand for bitcoins on the mining side, and not mining power per se (meaning that efficiency increases don't really matter)?
I'd noticed it but dismissed it as a great example of "(time-lagged) correlation is not causation". OOPS.
^^I did the same thing. now I'm not sure anymore. The other way around just seemed so much less complex (and less complex is generally more likely).
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
Were you dropped on your head as a child?
I can understand that you just know too little about physics after all, none of what I said violates any fundamental law of physics, in fact the humanly possible laser power is not too far away from the level required to create electron pairs.
I'm a semiconductor process engineer.
That doesn't say anything about your knowledge of optical information processing, or lasers over all, or even fundamental physics.
sigh I'm probably getting trolled.
In a natural and free ecosystem waste =food, the waste heat in mining will be put to good use soon.
In the future when humans can make routine interstellar trips and everything is powered by natural or man-made nuclear fusion reactors, we could well be creating matters directly out of the waste energy of mining farms, which itself is used to record blockchain information at a sub-nuclear level, the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold.
1) Waste energy and ultra-high frequency coherent light used by some hypothetical optical processor are very different things. One is waste and cannot do useful work, and the other is useful energy that can do work.
2) As I pointed out, virtual particles are not matter and cannot be usefully used for the storage of information, since they do not obey the mass-shell relation.
3) "the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold" wat. Surely you don't imply your superlaser-powered photonic processors would be creating gold particles? Because that'd belie a rather poor grasp of the physics you've accused me of not understanding.
By the way, laser light at a frequency high enough to produce virtual particles would absolutely wreck whatever kind of photonic metamaterial is responsible for the information processing.
This is cypherdoc's thread and I have long been used to rant whatever I have in mind here, with only vague connection to what's being discussed, sorry if it brings confusion.
Yes per the definition of waste energy to think they can be used to create matters is ridiculous, what I meant is more along the line of "still highly energetic photons after being used for calculation", and information recording would certainly not happen at pair production time, it has to be afterwards, and we haven't even started with the creation of protons and neutrons, which is completely another matter, in fact it would be silly if you choose to create subatomic particles yourself rather than using the protons that is already abundant in the Universe, the whole rant is actually a response to goldbug's claim that Bitcoin is not physical and thus have no real value, so the gold thing is completely metaphoric.
Solid metamaterials will be wrecked, but plasmas can support light-bending up to the desired energy level very well, and by the way, after the electron-pairs are created they are as real as the electrons in your bread and not virtual anymore. And stimulated emission would work just fine, you can use highly accelerated free electrons to produce coherent radiations, not just orbit electrons.
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
Were you dropped on your head as a child?
I can understand that you just know too little about physics after all, none of what I said violates any fundamental law of physics, in fact the humanly possible laser power is not too far away from the level required to create electron pairs.
I'm a semiconductor process engineer.
That doesn't say anything about your knowledge of optical information processing, or lasers over all, or even fundamental physics.
sigh I'm probably getting trolled.
In a natural and free ecosystem waste =food, the waste heat in mining will be put to good use soon.
In the future when humans can make routine interstellar trips and everything is powered by natural or man-made nuclear fusion reactors, we could well be creating matters directly out of the waste energy of mining farms, which itself is used to record blockchain information at a sub-nuclear level, the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold.
1) Waste energy and ultra-high frequency coherent light used by some hypothetical optical processor are very different things. One is waste and cannot do useful work, and the other is useful energy that can do work.
2) As I pointed out, virtual particles are not matter and cannot be usefully used for the storage of information, since they do not obey the mass-shell relation.
3) "the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold" wat. Surely you don't imply your superlaser-powered photonic processors would be creating gold particles? Because that'd belie a rather poor grasp of the physics you've accused me of not understanding.
By the way, coherent light at a frequency high enough to produce virtual particles (which cannot be produced by stimulated emission and therefor cannot come from a laser like you suggested) would absolutely wreck whatever kind of photonic metamaterial is responsible for the information processing.
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
Were you dropped on your head as a child?
I can understand that you just know too little about physics after all, none of what I said violates any fundamental law of physics, in fact the humanly possible laser power is not too far away from the level required to create electron pairs.
I'm a semiconductor process engineer.
That doesn't say anything about your knowledge of optical information processing, or lasers over all, or even fundamental physics.
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
Were you dropped on your head as a child?
I can understand that you just know too little about physics after all, none of what I said violates any fundamental law of physics, in fact the humanly possible laser power is not too far away from the level required to create electron pairs.
I'm a semiconductor process engineer.
Also, virtual particles are not matter.
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
Were you dropped on your head as a child?
I can understand that you just know too little about physics after all, none of what I said violates any fundamental law of physics, in fact the humanly possible laser power is not too far away from the level required to create electron pairs out of vacuum.
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
Were you dropped on your head as a child?
Think about it, what will you use as carriers of information in your future processors? The bandwidth has to match up to the processing capability of processors(reason why will measure it in terms of Hertz, a unit for frequency) in the end you will use photons, nothing but photons. As your bandwidth increases, you need to use higher and higher frequency laser-beams, which translates to higher and higher energy photons, when your photon energy reaches the level of electron rest energy, electron-pairs start to be created out of Dirac sea.
In a natural and free ecosystem waste =food, the waste heat in mining will be put to good use soon.
In the future when humans can make routine interstellar trips and everything is powered by natural or man-made nuclear fusion reactors, we could well be creating matters directly out of the waste energy of mining farms, which itself is used to record blockchain information at a sub-nuclear level, the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold.
Unfortunately, physics is a thing and this is not possible.
I could well tell you this is possible, it's just a problem of scale and efficiency(future miners may use laser beams and nonlinear optical components for calculation), we create matters with accelerators and reactors nearly everyday, when the information density reaches such a level that it has to be recorded at sub-nuclear level the relevant technologies will be ready.
In a natural and free ecosystem waste =food, the waste heat in mining will be put to good use soon.
In the future when humans can make routine interstellar trips and everything is powered by natural or man-made nuclear fusion reactors, we could well be creating matters directly out of the waste energy of mining farms, which itself is used to record blockchain information at a sub-nuclear level, the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold.
Unfortunately, physics is a thing and this is not possible.
In a natural and free ecosystem waste =food, the waste heat in mining will be put to good use soon.
In the future when humans can make routine interstellar trips and everything is powered by natural or man-made nuclear fusion reactors, we could well be creating matters directly out of the waste energy of mining farms, which itself is used to record blockchain information at a sub-nuclear level, the ultimate amalgam of Bitcoin and Gold.
Actually there is another side to this difficulty-leading theory: the impression of a mighty Borg that is formed by the global mining network. Most people would not trust some garage GPU farms for their money, but when you saw the hashrate being pushed higher and higher by shiny supercomputing centers it's another matter, it seems irresistible.
So maybe the traditional technical analysis needs to be reviewed for Bitcoin? The price doesn't always lead everything, the difficulty is another paramount indicator?
So maybe the traditional technical analysis needs to be reviewed for Bitcoin? The price doesn't always lead everything, the difficulty is another paramount indicator?
In a natural and free ecosystem waste =food, the waste heat in mining will be put to good use soon.
yeah i know, i assumed it was the other way around, but when you read the charts, no way to deny it.
just wait until this next round of asics (jan to mark) makes the rate go crazy again! next sumer we will see $5,000 easy
just wait until this next round of asics (jan to mark) makes the rate go crazy again! next sumer we will see $5,000 easy
I'd be nervous to depend on this indicator.
For one thing, it has been published, which is a death sentence for any indicator with predictive value.
For another thing, in the long run, the relationship between difficulty and price will be a complex one. Nothing is ever explained by A -> B, so mining really needs multiple non-linear differential equations (think Lotka-Volterra), which are a well known source of chaos.
Ignoring factor 1 for a moment, the long term break in this relationship could signal the end of the "growth from zero" phase on at least one size.
I'm happy to use it to predict that the bitcoins I already have are going up in value, but I wouldn't mortgage my house to buy more bitcoins because of it.
you see, miners are a unique form of rabid, dog eat dog, bunch of m*therf*ckers. they will eat their mothers if it means getting a few more GH/s. you really need to understand this. it's critical for Bitcoin's long term success.
in a way though, it's a beautiful form of unbridled capitalism. for the first time in many of these guys lifetimes, they have a chance to gain control of their own lives. if you're good at mining and can be first in an order, you can make some good money. and even if not, you still stand a chance to do pretty well b/c of price appreciation. those guys always do their calculations based on today's price as if it were static. they forget that the long term trend of the price will be up so they can get unnecessarily negative and aggressive towards competitive miners or their companies.
i remember quite clearly back in the early days that one of the most important things that convinced me that Bitcoin had great potential was this grassroot movement of insane miners. and i mean insane. watching all those early videos of young guys with GPU's strewn all over their basements and living rooms was impressive. cords everywhere, fans, monitors, and that whirring sound. what a kick! and for justification they'll use arguments that at the very least, these things will heat your house. lol! only one thing drives ppl like that and that is money. and when you see hundreds of guys in YouTube videos willing to do anything to get involved you know things will go viral. there are literally legions and legions of them and is one of the prime reasons for the still parabolically growing HR.
and then you realize that there is no way that gubmint will ever be able to shut this thing down. it's the people speaking.
in a way though, it's a beautiful form of unbridled capitalism. for the first time in many of these guys lifetimes, they have a chance to gain control of their own lives. if you're good at mining and can be first in an order, you can make some good money. and even if not, you still stand a chance to do pretty well b/c of price appreciation. those guys always do their calculations based on today's price as if it were static. they forget that the long term trend of the price will be up so they can get unnecessarily negative and aggressive towards competitive miners or their companies.
i remember quite clearly back in the early days that one of the most important things that convinced me that Bitcoin had great potential was this grassroot movement of insane miners. and i mean insane. watching all those early videos of young guys with GPU's strewn all over their basements and living rooms was impressive. cords everywhere, fans, monitors, and that whirring sound. what a kick! and for justification they'll use arguments that at the very least, these things will heat your house. lol! only one thing drives ppl like that and that is money. and when you see hundreds of guys in YouTube videos willing to do anything to get involved you know things will go viral. there are literally legions and legions of them and is one of the prime reasons for the still parabolically growing HR.
and then you realize that there is no way that gubmint will ever be able to shut this thing down. it's the people speaking.
Preach it brother! But seriously do you see a need for bitcoin to adopt a lower energy model down the line if it's going to stay dominant? I'd like to see a proposal to add proof of stake blocks starting after the third block reward halving. These could be every 10 minutes as well and they would pay transaction fees to the stake miners but not a fixed block reward. This could add security and take some of the pressure off electricity consumption of the network. Or maybe we have enough use for electrical heating systems that every water heater and electric baseboard will be happily hashing away and mining farms will eventually fade away?
CD, you are one of the very few who saw that price follows difficult, very cool
every time i say that people tell me im a witch!
every time i say that people tell me im a witch!
Yeah it took me a while to realize it, because at first it looks like a typical economic fallacy, maybe like the Labor Theory of Value sneaking in. But cypher is exactly right, people are trying to get BTC and they see two ways: buy or mine. If everyone is piling into mining, that will push the price lower than it otherwise would have been. That means, for instance, in the summer when the price was range-bound and everyone was jumping into mining, the price should have been continuing its exponential growth with no slowdown. All that happened was some of that growth was siphoned off into the mining sector even as the network effects continued and Bitcoin kept mushrooming. That excess started to slosh back into Bitcoin in October.
yeah i know, i assumed it was the other way around, but when you read the charts, no way to deny it.
just wait until this next round of asics (jan to mark) makes the rate go crazy again! next sumer we will see $5,000 easy
I'd noticed it but dismissed it as a great example of "(time-lagged) correlation is not causation". OOPS.
It's interesting to note that based on this theory, as soon as electricity becomes the dominant factor instead of hardware cost, hashrate will cease to lead price.
There is much more to it than "(time-lagged) correlation is not causation" the big hash rate squeeze in July of 2010 (GPU) is what got investors buying Bitcoin. This type of squeeze on miners is understood by investors, it drove up the price 2 orders of magnitude. Miners look at the risk reword in the present where investors look at the risk reword over time.
So an increase in difficulty is an opportunity to buy as an investor. Also the halving wasn't understood by the market at all, there was a little ooo halving, coins are going up in value better buy now and then a big disappointment when price fell slightly after halving. (I didn't understand it either then)
As chodpaba put it not too long ago "the halving has yet to be priced" in. And it is my view that the inelastic supply of new coins goes to a smaller and smaller pool of holders, so halving has the same effect on investors as miners working in the present while investors work with price over time, and tend to overlook how quickly the pool of available of coins dry up as the users expand.
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