Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1256.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 06:07:38 PM

Quote from: Morbid on October 24, 2013, 05:51:40 PM

could we have something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 being implemented in western ('democratic') countries once things become extremely unstable? not just with metals but also with crypto assets?

This gets back to my point about it being 'plausibly deniable' that one retains control of crypto assets even in the case that control can be proven at one time. And this thanks to the undeniable and demonstrated risks of theft and fraud that Bitcoin does NOT share with gold.

Put another way, if Bitcoin is spent from a wallet that at one time belonged to me, there is every possibility that I had nothing to do with it and have no idea who the guy who ripped it off might be.

Of course it is possible to lose PM's as well, and I have done it (yes, that is the honest truth!) but it's just not as common. BTW, I only know that I had lost certain PM's because I found them unexpectedly and had totally forgotten that I had put them where I found them. In Bitcoinland, there is a trail of lost BTC from practically every wallet or on-line service I've ever fucked with. In small quantities of course...to the best of my recollection...

lol! you are getting old! Wink

NewLiberty

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1002

Gresham's Lawyer

Quote from: oakpacific on October 24, 2013, 07:40:29 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:10:48 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 11:56:32 AM

Quote from: rocks on October 24, 2013, 11:49:37 AM

Quote from: NewLiberty on October 24, 2013, 08:59:38 AM

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1. It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it' (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize. How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing. And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today. especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today. but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

It's a utterly strange feeling that either the whole world goes down and you and a small group of people are the sole winners, the last ones left standing, or the world wins over you and you have nothing left, no compromise, no reconciliation.

As much as I want to see the success of Bitcoin, I am not sure I am already prepared for the Pax Bitcoinica world.

Exante's prediction was for 2013, made in April. Yes the future will be different.

The trick of pax bitcoinica is to get from here to there with the least destructive upheavals.
This is one of the considerations of my projects. To bring bitcoin and hard money in general, to the people who will use it so that when the changes come they can manage it. It is not so bad to spread it more thinly. It is easier when no one around you is hungry or carrying pitchforks. Slow steady rises are good. I look forward to the year when Bitcoin price only doubles.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:10:48 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 11:56:32 AM

Quote from: rocks on October 24, 2013, 11:49:37 AM

Quote from: NewLiberty on October 24, 2013, 08:59:38 AM

The exante BitcoinFund prediction is 500. They have a pod of whales swimming in their pond.

Meh, Bitcoin's market cap is currently $2.5B. That is a lot but nothing compared to many $Tillions of gold reserves held.

A Bitcoin price of 500 still only brings the market cap to around $6B, it Bitcoin takes off as a viable reserve asset that is nothing and we still have a way to go.

The reason price targets make no sense is Bitcoin is either going to the moon, or crashing to zero as a failed experiment. I don't see a middle ground. That is the entire premise of this thread IMHO, that BTC will become a reserve asset and in the process go up A LOT. Why trade that asset? Just hold.

+1. It's always nice to see when someone 'gets it' (said with an air of presumption which does not escape me...)

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize. How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing. And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today. especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today. but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

It's a utterly strange feeling that either the whole world goes down and you and a small group of people are the sole winners, the last ones left standing, or the world wins over you and you have nothing left, no compromise, no reconciliation.

As much as I want to see the success of Bitcoin, I am not sure I am already prepared for the Pax Bitcoinica world.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 12:32:33 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:10:48 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 11:56:32 AM

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize. How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing. And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today. especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today. but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

Actually, I expect that the more successful Bitcoin becomes, the more challenging it will be for me (as someone who lives in a non-free jurisdiction (the U.S.)) to find solutions to the problem of capitalizing. In no circumstance did I every intend to take a majority of my BTC to my grave, and I think that there is a fair chance that even trading BTC straight across for a tractor if/when some old farmer knows of them and wishes to own them will be fraught with danger.

I'm on record as predicting that all important governments would reject and fight Bitcoin and with escalating forcefulness, and probably cooperate in doing so. To my shock and delight, it seems like I may be wrong about that given the developments out of China. Yet I continue to have great suspicion of the likely posture of the U.S. government which is massively as corrupted by corporate lobbying and is looking at a much greater fall being still the beneficiary of having world's reserve currency. As a citizen who lives under U.S. jurisdiction, this is most salient to me.

I believe technical solutions are not so difficult to come by, i.e., P2P distributed exchanges. OTOH, governments around the world know that a system with a single point of failure will fall someday, they have the need to diversify, better still, some of them may figure out that it's futile to try to destroy a system which in its most essential form is nothing more than an idea, which is indestructible.

And lastly, being the controller of the world's reserve currency ain't so much of a bliss as it's a burden. There is no escape from your creditors and the ranks and files of them grow by each day, even during the worst of times you can't even close business as there is no 'sold out' option for you, shift the reserve currency to something else will save all of us a great deal of troubles.

tvbcof

legendary

Activity: 4760

Merit: 1283

Quote from: Morbid on October 24, 2013, 05:51:40 PM

could we have something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 being implemented in western ('democratic') countries once things become extremely unstable? not just with metals but also with crypto assets?

This gets back to my point about it being 'plausibly deniable' that one retains control of crypto assets even in the case that control can be proven at one time. And this thanks to the undeniable and demonstrated risks of theft and fraud that Bitcoin does NOT share with gold.

Put another way, if Bitcoin is spent from a wallet that at one time belonged to me, there is every possibility that I had nothing to do with it and have no idea who the guy who ripped it off might be.

Of course it is possible to lose PM's as well, and I have done it (yes, that is the honest truth!) but it's just not as common. BTW, I only know that I had lost certain PM's because I found them unexpectedly and had totally forgotten that I had put them where I found them. In Bitcoinland, there is a trail of lost BTC from practically every wallet or on-line service I've ever fucked with. In small quantities of course...to the best of my recollection...

Adrian-x

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1000

Quote from: rocks on October 24, 2013, 01:24:32 PM

This conclusion comes from seeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset (one that I very much share). Today US Treasury debt is the reserve asset to own, and the problem with fiat is you can't really "own" debt because a public or individual can choose to refuse to pay. (As the next generation should do if they are smart).

In which generation are you? I was thinking as the baton is handed from the baby boomers to the upcoming "smart" generation over the next 10 years they should figure that out.

Morbid

legendary

Activity: 1202

Merit: 1015

could we have something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 being implemented in western ('democratic') countries once things become extremely unstable? not just with metals but also with crypto assets?

rocks

legendary

Activity: 1153

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 24, 2013, 12:19:28 PM

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen

This conclusion comes from seeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset (one that I very much share). Today US Treasury debt is the reserve asset to own, and the problem with fiat is you can't really "own" debt because a public or individual can choose to refuse to pay. (As the next generation should do if they are smart).

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 01:01:26 PM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 24, 2013, 12:55:42 PM

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage. Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc. More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

Fully agree, this is the rebalancing argument. Yes other assets have issues, but it never makes sense to keep 99% of your wealth in one asset, be it gold, land, fiat, stocks, etc.

If BTC continues to go up, it will make sense for many long term believers to sell a little from time to time and rebalance into other assets and remain diversified. Even gold bugs say you shouldn't hold more than 10% in gold, with BTC I think we can go higher than that, but when you get to over 50% in Bitcoin consider selling a little and buy other assets that yield.

tvbcof

legendary

Activity: 4760

Merit: 1283

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 24, 2013, 01:05:44 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 01:01:26 PM

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage. Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc. More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

It's true, but most of these are subject to confiscation, not transportable if you need to (or are forced to) leave the country, or not transportable in large amounts. Accounts in multiple countries is the next best thing, but it is pretty unwieldy and won't help much in the more extreme cases.

Everything has it's Achilles' heal, and frankly speaking, Bitcoin has more than it's share. All of these things are just factors to consider in weighing things. The biggest factor is one's own unique situation and that varies wildly from individual to individual.

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 01:01:26 PM

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage. Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc. More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

It's true, but most of these are subject to confiscation, not transportable if you need to (or are forced to) leave the country, or not transportable in large amounts. Accounts in multiple countries is the next best thing, but it is pretty unwieldy and won't help much in the more extreme cases.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Right, "dirty fiat money" can buy you any sort of hard asset.

tvbcof

legendary

Activity: 4760

Merit: 1283

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 24, 2013, 12:55:42 PM

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

Good points.

I would add that there are a lot of other options besides 'fiat' and 'BTC' for wealth storage. Real property, commodities, education, a multitude of traditional instruments, etc. More clever and well off persons will be considering and balancing many of these.

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you have a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That's what I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

tvbcof

legendary

Activity: 4760

Merit: 1283

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:46:34 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 12:41:58 PM

On one's phone!?! I don't even check my real e-mail from my phone. No wonder people get ass-raped regularly in Bitcoinland.

i knew i should've said an encrypted M of N paper wallet tucked away in a guarded security vault deep in the mountains of the Swiss Alps.

If one feels compelled say anything at all about such things, it's probably best to be less than precise.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:46:34 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 12:41:58 PM

On one's phone!?! I don't even check my real e-mail from my phone. No wonder people get ass-raped regularly in Bitcoinland.

i knew i should've said an encrypted M of N paper wallet tucked away in a guarded security vault deep in the mountains of the Swiss Alps.

Well if you do M of N hide them in different mountain ranges in temples with traps Tombraider style.

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1002

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 12:41:58 PM

On one's phone!?! I don't even check my real e-mail from my phone. No wonder people get ass-raped regularly in Bitcoinland.

i knew i should've said an encrypted M of N paper wallet tucked away in a guarded security vault deep in the mountains of the Swiss Alps.

tvbcof

legendary

Activity: 4760

Merit: 1283

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:24:48 PM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 24, 2013, 12:19:28 PM

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But these aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't tere for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate for contingencies.

i was just trying to placate my boy, tv. Grin

you're right about that, though. Bitcoin is unique in that it is a currency and a store of wealth. why hold USD's? just store them on your phone, let them appreciate along the way, and only cash them into Gyft cards (today) cash (tomorrow) when you need to buy something.

it's the perfect pair trade: short USD/long BTC.

On one's phone!?! I don't even check my real e-mail from my phone. No wonder people get ass-raped regularly in Bitcoinland.

The reason for my 'capitalizing' is primarily because I trust my bank less than I trust Bitcoin so I keep a limited balance there. From time to time I wish to have cash flow to buy shit (me being 'retired' and not taking a pay-check at the moment) so I need to be siphoning from my various alternate stores of wealth. As I mentioned earlier, I'm more heavy than I wish to be in Bitcoin at the moment so that is where I'd like to have funds coming from.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: Dangolbery on October 24, 2013, 08:54:12 AM

Quote from: Technomage on March 13, 2012, 03:45:27 PM

It's about time people start realizing that all the massive growth our civilization experienced in the 20th century is mainly thanks to cheap and abundant fossil fuels. Energy is still abundant, in fact it's more abundant thanks to renewable energies, but it's far from cheap. Energy is getting more expensive all the time because energy demand is growing higher and at the same time energy sources with high EROEI are becoming more and more scarce.

Coal is the only energy source that's truly competitive with oil and it happens to be the most polluting energy source available. Honestly I have to laugh at any arguments that support an overall growth scenario for this decade. The whole decade is a time of fundamental decline. Perhaps next decade things will truly look brighter, maybe slightly earlier if we start an accelerating change in our energy production and consumption patterns.

France has a fusion reactor coming online in 2018-2022.

But yeah the rest of this decade is a wash, it's going to get worse with the greatest depression starting in 2015.

I hold Excelon stock

Zangelbert Bingledack

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

I edited my post to add a bit at the end

I think something like, "If you don't have COMPLETE control of your assets, do you really own them?" could be a great slogan to sell HNWI on Bitcoin.

tvbcof

legendary

Activity: 4760

Merit: 1283

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 24, 2013, 12:10:48 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on October 24, 2013, 11:56:32 AM

Years ago, and probably on this thread, I predicted that the main problem would be to figure out how to capitalize. How much, when, how (in light of regulatory interference, etc) and that sort of thing. And as I had hoped, that is the set of problems I'm facing now.

this is what i continue to call Bitcoin's Tension.

ppl are so focused on the problems of today. especially the illiquidity and difficulties in "capitalizing". and they are right about that; today. but anyone here, if they have been paying attention to what i've been saying, understands that if Bitcoin makes it thru the gauntlet (window of illiquidity and nonacceptance) all these problems will melt away.

all of a sudden you will find yourself in control of a pile of BTC worth thousands and all sorts of means to capitalize if you wish (cash out).

it's going to happen.

Actually, I expect that the more successful Bitcoin becomes, the more challenging it will be for me (as someone who lives in a non-free jurisdiction (the U.S.)) to find solutions to the problem of capitalizing. In no circumstance did I every intend to take a majority of my BTC to my grave, and I think that there is a fair chance that even trading BTC straight across for a tractor if/when some old farmer knows of them and wishes to own them will be fraught with danger.

I'm on record as predicting that all important governments would reject and fight Bitcoin and with escalating forcefulness, and probably cooperate in doing so. To my shock and delight, it seems like I may be wrong about that given the developments out of China. Yet I continue to have great suspicion of the likely posture of the U.S. government which is massively as corrupted by corporate lobbying and is looking at a much greater fall being still the beneficiary of having world's reserve currency. As a citizen who lives under U.S. jurisdiction, this is most salient to me.

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1256. (Read 2032272 times)