Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1354. (Read 2032266 times)

And next I learned it was more complicated than that.

When I was quite new here, I read a post of yours where speculated that the current downtrend from $7 would end at $4.50 and the new high would be $14.

As we all know, you were completely right!!! Please consider yourself one of the local experts and don't be so modest!!

Bottom-up to me means trying to understand why each neuron of each person is firing.  I will take your advice.

Yes, Bitcoin is a fun experiment but the principles and theorems of human action still apply.

Markets are markets and based on Human Action. If you have not read Mises's magnum opus then I would highly recommend doing so to get a better understanding of why humans do what they do.

For speculators it is not so much top-down as bottom up. Among individuals there is information asymmetry and individual human action is generally done with intention to bring about some ends. Often, that ends is generally designed to improve the individual actor's circumstances. Each individual has access to information in different degrees and they always know something better than other individuals do (if only their own preference; but it could be as simple as the best route from point A to B, how to design a turbine engine, etc.). So, what the pricing mechanism does is tease out information from the marketplace.

And, ultimately, those speculators who are more accurate at prognosticating the future profit.

Your experimenting with Bitcoin is a great example of someone learning how the principles of human action work in an extremely raw environment (lack of govt. regulation). Of course, all govt. regulation does is create inefficiencies in the market which speculators and entrepreneurs are able to take advantage of and make tons of money. This experience and knowledge you gain from experimenting with Bitcoin, assuming you learn some correct principles (hence why I recommend reading Human Action), will help you make more accurate economic and financial prognostication decisions throughout your life. And who does not like being able to accurately and correctly prognosticate?

+1
thank you.

I knew nothing of economics, trading or anything before I learned about bitcoin. I still view it as an experiment both, in and of itself, and for me personally. Even if the value goes to zero and I get no direct material profit it is still a net positive for me based on that alone. Some people like to show up an shit on speculators but after my experiences here I think that what they do is the epitome of top-down psychological research.

I said it once before, this is the most interesting experiment around and will continue to attract people who like that kind of thing the longer it persists. Thanks local experts.

+1

Good to see this thread delivering again - thanks guys

Indeed, and flow is just as important as accumulation - the latter is accelerated when the former builds.


Exactly - the constant downward pressure is like packing down loose soil until it forms a rock-solid foundation. I might have to add to my 2014 bet

You would be surprised as some of us have some pretty sophisticated tools. There is a ton of useful information and analytics out there; if you only know what to look for and how to analyze it. There is also just simple currency valuation techniques just like there are simple fundamental financial analysis techniques (in case you want to see where I was right, again).

Think of currencies like storage containers like a propane tank or a battery. As funds flow in the price goes up as funds flow out the price goes down. Case in point, the stock market sells off and the USD strengthens because people are in effect selling stocks and buying dollars. Its all about funds flow. I actually think the BTC price is not going up nearly as fast as it could because BTCs are increasingly being used as settlement currencies.

While this keeps the BTC price down it is strengthening the overall Bitcoin economy. And that strength, think of it like a trade surplus and budget surplus (since Bitcoin is an equity based instrument) is laying the ground work for a very large move up, perhaps to at least $80-100, in the price over the next 12-18 months.

I agree, in blue, as always :-)

ooh 4chan lol

you guys should watch this.  it's interesting.  no mention about Bitcoin though:   http://wearelegionthedocumentary.com/

absolutely

Without breaking anonymity, you can't. The market simply feels different from my perspective, having been observing it for over two years. Watching the magnitude of the moves, reactions to them, general sentiment in forum and blog discussion, handling of news by media, etc. all point to widespread indications of growth - still early, but it's like waking from a deep sleep and getting reoriented.

Again, from my view (and I suspect others - cypher, Trace, Turk...)

How do people go about trying to quantify this?

Agreed, and known periods can be targeted to paint charts. I'd have to change tools to include candlesticks or OHLC ticks, but this does well for the purposes of observing long-term trends.


Thanks! I've kept my daily/weekly charts updated as well, although my preference is to only make a few major trades per year.

Buy signal triggered at the daily scale on the drop from $19 to $16.


No signal generated on a weekly basis, although a breach of $20-21 would have.


As the market grows in size, weekly signals should become more easily reached. That will stabilize once the market is saturated and everyone knows about Bitcoin, but until then it ought to be highly profitable.

so a few things:

1.  i don't think closing prices for such a long time interval are helpful.  your first graph completely omits the spike to $32, which altho brief, is important info for the avg investor.  that spike rightfully illuminates the irrational exuberance exhibited at the time by investors chasing the price.  there is important information there that needs to be preserved.  this is why we use candles or OHLC bars that illustrate the entire range of the months price movement as opposed to a single point.

2.  while monthly charts may be your favored timeframe to look at, i think it is important to look at multiple timeframes such as weekly and daily as well when making trading decisions.  monthly charts may only reveal favorable trading conditions once a year which is too infrequent for alot of us.  this is why i recommend using intermediate timeframes, such as the weekly, to trade in my newsletter.  this allows more frequent entry/exit points on the order of perhaps every few months as opposed to once or twice a year which i've found is more popular for active investors.  the intermediate timeframe is also long enough to prevent day trading off of the daily chart which can eat your account alive from fees and impulsive decisions.

good job though on the charts.

Alright, here we go.

On a monthly close basis, we could see a record high if price stays above the $16.10 level.


Viewing monthly average prices, we aren't quite ready to break into new territory just yet.


Either way, it's good stuff. Notice that monthly volume is the 4th highest it's ever been in USD terms (likely to be 3rd by the end of the month), and this seems to be a different type of volume than the previous highs were - the 2011 bubble (June), the 2012 new year spike (January; possibly Pirate related), and the 2012 BS&T shutdown (August). Instead of concentrated activity or disasters, this feels more like organic growth from wider demand. With the exception of some high-volume trading participants, it does look like there are a lot more players than a year ago.

my $300 target is based on what i see as a negatively tilting head & shoulders configuration with a $200 difference btwn the top of the head and the neckline at $500.  $500-200=300.