Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1365. (Read 2032266 times)
The Thunderclap to be heard when Apple violates $500 will be deafening. We may have to move up the Mayan Calendar date.
closed out my GG and SLW shorts for big gains. just in case silverbox wants to try and hammer me make up something later about this. moved them over to juicier targets.
hey silverbox. wanna bet me 10 BTC that Apple won't break $500 again?
+1
I am short apple since 545 $ the second time after the nice move from 700 to 530...
dude! you are holding out on your subscribers!
hey silverbox. wanna bet me 10 BTC that Apple won't break $500 again?
+1
I am short apple since 545 $ the second time after the nice move from 700 to 530...
its more than light; its non-existent on the mechanism b/c very few, like me, realize what's happening.
I think I've demonstrated some understanding of the mechanism as you describe it, and do not disagree with your interpretation.
no doubt you're smart enough to understand the mechanism i've proposed. but since you yourself have freely admitted that you are not actively involved in trading the markets or perhaps following the financial news as much as i do, there's a few things you might miss.
For the record, I don't trade for a bunch of reasons, several of the primary ones being:
1) Expense. It costs money to third parties to exchange almost anything, and it complicates tax considerations as well. Of course if one is in the business to capitalize on other people's trading it's a different story, but that's a pretty big commitment.
2) Disadvantageous asymmetries in: information, regulatory preference, legal protection, etc.
3) Counter-party risk is inherent in most trading adventures, and I try to avoid it as a matter of principle.
You are right that I don't follow the 'news' as much as you, and when I do follow it it is never really mainstream sources that I pay attention to. In any event, it is 'theory' that interests me more than 'news', and news is mostly just a way to build up or knock down various hypotheses of mine.
I've a short attention span and a fairly broad range of interests. By investing/speculating almost completely on fundamentals I can completely neglect any news or research for months long periods without any impact on my financial affairs.
here's yet another way to look at the deflation/inflation debate. no doubt all of you inflationists have noted all the debt downgrades that have been going on for years. it's tempting to just overlook this and become numb to it all. well, as the downgrades mount it decreases the value of the underlying debt instruments but the payment burden remains. thus deflation of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
The article seems lite on detail of the mechanism you propose.
its more than light; its non-existent on the mechanism b/c very few, like me, realize what's happening.
I think I've demonstrated some understanding of the mechanism as you describe it, and do not disagree with your interpretation.
no doubt you're smart enough to understand the mechanism i've proposed. but since you yourself have freely admitted that you are not actively involved in trading the markets or perhaps following the financial news as much as i do, there's a few things you might miss.
but think about it; all these downgrades are decreasing the amount/value/availability of good collateral. miscreanity constantly talks about the "moneyness" of these instruments as they are traded back and forth as collateral for further debt buildup. well, if the collateral is now worth less, then the debt buildup slows, plateaus, or even decreases. that's exactly what we've seen since i've been calling for a top in risk assets.
It's tricky when the 'worth' is a nebulous term. The toxic paper is 'worth' quite a lot as the fed will spend up to $40,000,000,000/mo to take it off one's books and put it on their own and will continue to do so indefinitely (if I remember the details of QE3 correctly.)
As long as $40x10^9 is considered a fair chunk of change, that paper is as good a collateral as any. The 40-billion can be deployed to obtain more broadly values collateral (than toxic paper) and the game continues.
I would not doubt that the game could continue for many years if management is particularly adroit, but the whole thing 'feels' to me like there is a lot of internal stress and a structural failure (should someone drop the ball) could very well be fairly catastrophic.
its actually $85B/mo and counting. Ben has also promised to keep rates at 0% (only for his buddies mind you in the hopes of trickle down
) until unemployment drops below 6%. but that's really not alot of money when you compare it to the amount of combined private and public debt out there along with the quadrillion or so of shadow banking debt. as i've shown in the previous posts those debt mountains have shrunk, plateaued, and by my estimation are rolling over. that's trouble.
when you combine that with Steve Keen's theory of the necessity for an ever accelerating amount debt to keep the ponzi going, you know we're in trouble. now.
here's yet another way to look at the deflation/inflation debate. no doubt all of you inflationists have noted all the debt downgrades that have been going on for years. it's tempting to just overlook this and become numb to it all. well, as the downgrades mount it decreases the value of the underlying debt instruments but the payment burden remains. thus deflation of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
The article seems lite on detail of the mechanism you propose.
its more than light; its non-existent on the mechanism b/c very few, like me, realize what's happening.
I think I've demonstrated some understanding of the mechanism as you describe it, and do not disagree with your interpretation.
but think about it; all these downgrades are decreasing the amount/value/availability of good collateral. miscreanity constantly talks about the "moneyness" of these instruments as they are traded back and forth as collateral for further debt buildup. well, if the collateral is now worth less, then the debt buildup slows, plateaus, or even decreases. that's exactly what we've seen since i've been calling for a top in risk assets.
It's tricky when the 'worth' is a nebulous term. The toxic paper is 'worth' quite a lot as the fed will spend up to $40,000,000,000/mo to take it off one's books and put it on their own and will continue to do so indefinitely (if I remember the details of QE3 correctly.)
As long as $40x10^9 is considered a fair chunk of change, that paper is as good a collateral as any. The 40-billion can be deployed to obtain more broadly values collateral (than toxic paper) and the game continues.
I would not doubt that the game could continue for many years if management is particularly adroit, but the whole thing 'feels' to me like there is a lot of internal stress and a structural failure (should someone drop the ball) could very well be fairly catastrophic.
hey silverbox. wanna bet me 10 BTC that Apple won't break $500 again?
here's yet another way to look at the deflation/inflation debate. no doubt all of you inflationists have noted all the debt downgrades that have been going on for years. it's tempting to just overlook this and become numb to it all. well, as the downgrades mount it decreases the value of the underlying debt instruments but the payment burden remains. thus deflation of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
The article seems lite on detail of the mechanism you propose.
its more than light; its non-existent on the mechanism b/c very few, like me, realize what's happening.
but think about it; all these downgrades are decreasing the amount/value/availability of good collateral. miscreanity constantly talks about the "moneyness" of these instruments as they are traded back and forth as collateral for further debt buildup. well, if the collateral is now worth less, then the debt buildup slows, plateaus, or even decreases. that's exactly what we've seen since i've been calling for a top in risk assets.
here's yet another way to look at the deflation/inflation debate. no doubt all of you inflationists have noted all the debt downgrades that have been going on for years. it's tempting to just overlook this and become numb to it all. well, as the downgrades mount it decreases the value of the underlying debt instruments but the payment burden remains. thus deflation of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
The article seems lite on detail of the mechanism you propose.
I would say that the primary effect contributing to deflation (except for outright default of course) would be that entities burdened with decreasingly valued assets are less well positioned to take on more debt as their collateral is diminished. Nothing a few accounting rule tweaks cannot deal with though. I think it was on zerohedge that I read about the US having no plans to implement the Basel-II accords...and we still operated under significantly lightened FASB rules interpretations in terms of mark-to-market as I understand it. I bet that 'doing right' on either of these away would snap the system like a pretzel. Bet using PM's and Bitcoin that is.
here's yet another way to look at the deflation/inflation debate. no doubt all of you inflationists have noted all the debt downgrades that have been going on for years. it's tempting to just overlook this and become numb to it all. well, as the downgrades mount it decreases the value of the underlying debt instruments but the payment burden remains. thus deflation of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/sp-cuts-uk-outlook-negative
in other words, you don't have to have defaults on the debt to have contraction of the money supply.
Gold down; Bitcoin up.
gold back under $1700. silver getting pounded.
The Grind.
The Grind.
i just talked about this last week: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-12/theres-problem-kicking-can-down-road
...
I take some exception to the assertion that deflation will necessarily have a significantly negative effect on gold prices. Certainly that is the conventional wisdom, but several things give me pause:
1) we had a hushed but very real deflationary event not long ago and gold prices did quit well through it.
...
I take some exception to the assertion that deflation will necessarily have a significantly negative effect on gold prices. Certainly that is the conventional wisdom, but several things give me pause:
1) we had a hushed but very real deflationary event not long ago and gold prices did quit well through it.
...
everyone here takes exception to what i'm asserting about gold and deflation so you're not alone. gold dropped 35% in 2008 and the miners were totally devastated around minus 74%. i remember when SLW went to $2 and GG to $13. extraordinary drops. if real deflation kicks in again i think we see a repeat and more.
...
You are right, but...
Some say that the reason for the drop in physical was that it was the only thing left of value and people who needed desperately to raise capital and had some kicking around were unloading it. It's more than possible that that was simply the messages which resonated with me, though, as a physical gold holder. One way or another, I recall being happier than my traditionally invested friends coming out of the 2008 event, and only several periods (including the last few years) when this was not the case.
As for the miners, it is exactly like someone (who's advice I took in the early 2000's) said...they are paper shares and will share the same fate as other paper shares if/when TSHTF. So, I never obtained any and have never paid much attention to them. I honestly don't know what SLW and GG even are except that they are not the phyzzz...nothing is (though Bitcoin is close enough for my tastes.)
Are you still talking about Gold here?
Cuz I can't make a connection between that graph and Golds valuation - you seem to do... care to enlighten me?
Cuz I can't make a connection between that graph and Golds valuation - you seem to do... care to enlighten me?
this thread is about what's going on in the economy and whether we're on the verge of another inflationary wave or going to see something we've never really seen in this country and that is deflation. either or is going to have a big affect on gold either up or down.
I take some exception to the assertion that deflation will necessarily have a significantly negative effect on gold prices. Certainly that is the conventional wisdom, but several things give me pause:
1) we had a hushed but very real deflationary event not long ago and gold prices did quit well through it.
2) more obvious deflation is not something we're familiar with (as you point out) and I suspect that it would be shocking and enough to call into serious question the stability of the U.S. economy (and thus solidity of our solution.) This could create a much more broad demand for PM's. And other alternatives such as Bitcoin of course.
There is, of course, also the possibility that deflation will be staved off at any cost. 'QE to infinity' some call it, along with whatever accounting rule changes are needed. That too would likely result in happy days for USD alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin.
everyone here takes exception to what i'm asserting about gold and deflation so you're not alone. gold dropped 35% in 2008 and the miners were totally devastated around minus 74%. i remember when SLW went to $2 and GG to $13. extraordinary drops. if real deflation kicks in again i think we see a repeat and more.
quite honestly, if it wasn't for Bitcoin, i would have never sold my gold/silver.
Are you still talking about Gold here?
Cuz I can't make a connection between that graph and Golds valuation - you seem to do... care to enlighten me?
Cuz I can't make a connection between that graph and Golds valuation - you seem to do... care to enlighten me?
this thread is about what's going on in the economy and whether we're on the verge of another inflationary wave or going to see something we've never really seen in this country and that is deflation. either or is going to have a big affect on gold either up or down.
I take some exception to the assertion that deflation will necessarily have a significantly negative effect on gold prices. Certainly that is the conventional wisdom, but several things give me pause:
1) we had a hushed but very real deflationary event not long ago and gold prices did quit well through it.
2) more obvious deflation is not something we're familiar with (as you point out) and I suspect that it would be shocking and enough to call into serious question the stability of the U.S. economy (and thus solidity of our solution.) This could create a much more broad demand for PM's. And other alternatives such as Bitcoin of course.
There is, of course, also the possibility that deflation will be staved off at any cost. 'QE to infinity' some call it, along with whatever accounting rule changes are needed. That too would likely result in happy days for USD alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin.
dude, the only person who's been disingenuous is you. by first claiming that traditional banking debt was expanding faster than the collapse in shadow banking debt which i've shown to be false. second, by claiming that securitization had returned to higher than prior peak levels which i've also shown to be false.
...
what you claim i disingenuously ignored was an interpretation of that data. the interpretation is what we're all disagreeing about.
...
what you claim i disingenuously ignored was an interpretation of that data. the interpretation is what we're all disagreeing about.
I have to admit, selectively choosing US-based charts and willfully ignoring the information not captured by them could be considered an "interpretation" of sorts. I suppose that's like saying the unemployment rate is declining because people have given up looking for work and are no longer counted.
Are you still talking about Gold here?
Cuz I can't make a connection between that graph and Golds valuation - you seem to do... care to enlighten me?
Cuz I can't make a connection between that graph and Golds valuation - you seem to do... care to enlighten me?
this thread is about what's going on in the economy and whether we're on the verge of another inflationary wave or going to see something we've never really seen in this country and that is deflation. either or is going to have a big affect on gold either up or down.
Jump to: