Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1361. (Read 2032266 times)
The Daaash for Digital Caaash
The Daaash for Digital Caaash
silverbox update (he died):
Gold: -3%
Bitcoin: +163%
Diff: +166% advantage Bitcoin, AND GROWING.
Gold: -3%
Bitcoin: +163%
Diff: +166% advantage Bitcoin, AND GROWING.
Gold down. Bitcoin up.
http://www.reddit.com/tb/16dcor
Absolutely amazing. Way to go Trace and ill overlook the last comment
Absolutely amazing. Way to go Trace and ill overlook the last comment
combined with James Turk (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1445465) I'd say bitcoin is being talked about in high-level gold bug circles. An amazingly good thing, indeed!
http://www.reddit.com/tb/16dcor
Absolutely amazing. Way to go Trace and ill overlook the last comment
Absolutely amazing. Way to go Trace and ill overlook the last comment
when i started exchanging silver and gold out for Bitcoin in 4/26/11:
What took you so long?
here's yet another start frame. when i started exchanging silver and gold out for Bitcoin in 4/26/11:
Bitcoin: 13.8/1.53= +902%
Gold: 1654/1550= +6.7%
Diff: +895.3 advantage Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: 13.8/1.53= +902%
Gold: 1654/1550= +6.7%
Diff: +895.3 advantage Bitcoin.
ppl find it hard to change their stance on something they've been invested in for years. i've been a PM bull for 6 years now and have started to convert some of my holdings to btc. its always bothered me that i can't easily spend that bullion. i've been impressed how much easier it is to move btc around.
since the above update is only from the beginning of this thread last March, let's do one from the beginning of Bitcoin's exchange rate on mtgox, as that would be another reasonable starting point:
from 7/18/10:
Bitcoin: 13.85/.05= +27700%
Gold: 1657/1210= +37%
Diff: +27663% advantage Bitcoin.
from 7/18/10:
Bitcoin: 13.85/.05= +27700%
Gold: 1657/1210= +37%
Diff: +27663% advantage Bitcoin.
the silverbox update:
Bitcoin: +156%
Gold: -2%
Diff: +158% Advantage Bitcoin and growing.
Bitcoin: +156%
Gold: -2%
Diff: +158% Advantage Bitcoin and growing.
Oh good, my student loans might be inflated away
I am projecting that in all but the most devastating of collapse environments, Joe Sixpack will find that any documentable debts (to well connected parties) left over from the dollar days will be rolled into a similar debt valued whatever becomes the new legal tender, and normalized against some basket of tangibles. In other words, unless you are a multinational with derivatives losses and that sort of thing, you probably should not expect a free ride complements of a monetary re-set.
As always, just my guess on how things would likely evolve.
Under what basis. Imagining new contracts out of whole cloth? If so you got bigger problems then you think. I hope you have a personal army because the next step is some banker troops putting two bullets in your skull and taking all your PM. I mean we are talking about some future world scenario where magically no rule of law exists yet somehow bankers retain full control of their assets and the (para)military force to protect it.
Forget bitcoins and gold stock up on water purificaiton equipment, rural land, good seeds, and enough manpower, firearms, and ammo to ensure nobody has the ability to take it.
I'm guessing what you suggest has historically happened?
Don't rightly know. There have been a variety of crises under fiat regimes. The nature of the crisis and other aspects of the state under observation limit the usefulness of comparisons. Looking around a bit, I don't see this exact detail in most of the more trivial descriptions of one crisis or another.
Here's something of interest (no pun intended) that I just dug up concerning Argentina. It seems to be a policy such as I anticipated would likely play out here in the US...at least in the fat middle of the potential failure scenarios.
------------
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&ved=0CEcQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.areuea.org%2Fconferences%2Fpdf%2Fpapers%2Fareuea%2520website%2FSumit%2520Agarwal.pdf&ei=-mDqULWbILHyigLHhYD4Bw&usg=AFQjCNGDChwojdYlo1CWHjxM7LyihTtDlQ&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.cGE
-----------
...
As a result, the pesofication was applied asymmetrically at parity for loans to the private
sector, but at the official exchange rate –although already out of touch with the market
rate- for the other contracts, in particular for deposits. Furthermore, outstanding bonds of
public or private Argentinean entities issued under Argentine law were also pesofied.8
To alleviate the impact of the pesofication on the financial assets of creditors,
indexation was introduced. Initially, the “Coeficiente de Estabilización Financiera”
(CER) index used was based on the Consumer Price Index, and in the case of consumer
loans (including mortgages) included a 3.5% per annum (in real terms) cap on the interest
rate to be applied. This index severely impaired debtors because of the price surge
following the devaluation of the Peso. Subsequently, it was replaced in October 2002, for
...
--------
I'm guessing what you suggest has historically happened?
Oh good, my student loans might be inflated away
I am projecting that in all but the most devastating of collapse environments, Joe Sixpack will find that any documentable debts (to well connected parties) left over from the dollar days will be rolled into a similar debt valued whatever becomes the new legal tender, and normalized against some basket of tangibles. In other words, unless you are a multinational with derivatives losses and that sort of thing, you probably should not expect a free ride complements of a monetary re-set.
As always, just my guess on how things would likely evolve.
For the record, here's a prediction.
I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver. This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.) Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.
While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for. I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.
As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction. None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall. OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.
I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver. This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.) Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.
While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for. I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.
As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction. None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall. OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.
interesting. i could see that.
don't get me wrong. long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast. it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.
Oh good, my student loans might be inflated away
I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.
can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks
I mean simply that if there are a sudden slew of defaults effecting a lot of things (physical PM's, pension funds, etc, etc) it will become a lot more clear to people that things without counter-party risk are worth a huge premium (or conversely, those which do have this risk deserve a giant discount.) Physical gold in hand and Bitcoin with secure secret keys are two items which simply lack this risk.
This will likely have every bit as much effect on Bitcoin as it would on PM's, and with luck will catapult the valuations of BTC into the orbit that the solution deserves. That is, OMHO, in the $1000's/BTC range.
Of course in order to 'pay off', Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen. I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle. And, of course, the potential reward as well.
Of course in order to 'pay off', Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen. I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle. And, of course, the potential reward as well.
what are the risks and opportunities you see for both, BTC and PM's in the next 2-4 years?
The risk factors that I fear most for Bitcoin involve supplantation by a superior system or control of the internet by a coordination of network carries (directed by governments and the force of law that they command) such that traffic associated with the solution is disrupted enough to cause problems for the system as currently envisioned.
I don't really see much risk for PM's in this timeframe.
I don't think that either PM's or Bitcoin will do much except drift upward in a steady-state such as we have today. And it is very possibly that a string of monetary and regulatory inventions can string things along through the next few years.
I've always theorized that should the current western monetary systems fail, it may well be sudden and catastrophic (mostly since that failure mode would be the most advantageous to the well connected.) If that happens in the next few years, PM's could do well, but Bitcoin could do amazing things. Even if the upheavals of a monetary system collapse disrupted availability of the internet as we currently know it, Bitcoin could still operate on a side-band network and provide one of the only ways to make large transfers across geography. This capability would be of immense value and Bitcoin valuations would rise accordingly.
Thanks. It seems we are in the same "team" since my theory and forecast is exactly the same:
Current monetary system to fail, leading to unemployment between 25 - 75 % (yes, this is a wide range and varies by region), social unrest, system breakdowns (electricity, internet), wars (I pray that it won't lead to the ultimate nuclear earth wipe-out).
During this financial breakdown, PM and Bitcoin will likely do very well. For bitcoin, of course provided that the network stays intact.
And Gold will likely first decline in value and could go down even into the 1000 - 600 zone before reversing and then rallying to unprecedented levels.
I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.
can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks
I mean simply that if there are a sudden slew of defaults effecting a lot of things (physical PM's, pension funds, etc, etc) it will become a lot more clear to people that things without counter-party risk are worth a huge premium (or conversely, those which do have this risk deserve a giant discount.) Physical gold in hand and Bitcoin with secure secret keys are two items which simply lack this risk.
This will likely have every bit as much effect on Bitcoin as it would on PM's, and with luck will catapult the valuations of BTC into the orbit that the solution deserves. That is, OMHO, in the $1000's/BTC range.
Of course in order to 'pay off', Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen. I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle. And, of course, the potential reward as well.
Of course in order to 'pay off', Bitcoin needs to survive and adapt to attacks not yet seen. I've balanced my holdings of BTC and PMs to the ratio which I am comfortable with given my interpretation of the various risks of each vehicle. And, of course, the potential reward as well.
what are the risks and opportunities you see for both, BTC and PM's in the next 2-4 years?
The risk factors that I fear most for Bitcoin involve supplantation by a superior system or control of the internet by a coordination of network carries (directed by governments and the force of law that they command) such that traffic associated with the solution is disrupted enough to cause problems for the system as currently envisioned.
I don't really see much risk for PM's in this timeframe.
I don't think that either PM's or Bitcoin will do much except drift upward in a steady-state such as we have today. And it is very possibly that a string of monetary and regulatory inventions can string things along through the next few years.
I've always theorized that should the current western monetary systems fail, it may well be sudden and catastrophic (mostly since that failure mode would be the most advantageous to the well connected.) If that happens in the next few years, PM's could do well, but Bitcoin could do amazing things. Even if the upheavals of a monetary system collapse disrupted availability of the internet as we currently know it, Bitcoin could still operate on a side-band network and provide one of the only ways to make large transfers across geography. This capability would be of immense value and Bitcoin valuations would rise accordingly.
I might have mentioned that my prediction, should it come to light, will give the concept of 'counter-party risk' a significant impulse which will implant it into the consciousness of many market participants.
can you specify what you mean in more detail? thanks
just a guess, but he might mean people will say: "What the shit? I can't get my gold from these comex fuckers? They want to give me USD instead? I didn't own any actual claim on any actual gold all this time? They didn't even have any significant amount of metal? Screw that, I'll never trust any counter-party that easily any more, no matter what they tell me... I'M PISSED! Now let me figure out how to use this hardware bitcoin personal bank USB thingy"
For the record, here's a prediction.
I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver. This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.) Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.
While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for. I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.
As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction. None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall. OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.
I predict that at some point there will be a quite massive tank in the price of gold/silver. This will be the point when it is known (to some) there there will be something like a comex default and a generalized massive failure to deliver physical with much turmoil in which to exit the industry (in default.) Should this happen it will be my signal that the next phase has begun, and in the next phase physical will be king.
While the volatility and patterns/timings of the ups and downs have been extra-ordinary of late, I don't think that this is the signal I'm looking for. I'd be more impressed to see a massive drop down to the $1200/Au-oz range to throw a number out.
As far as I know, I'm the only person who's made such a prediction. None of the perma-bulls that frequent KWN, Zerohedge, Sinclair, etc have stated such a thing that I recall. OTOH, most of these folks are a lot more familiar with the mechanics of markets and what-not so I'll have to give them the deference they deserve.
interesting. i could see that.
don't get me wrong. long term, as in very long term (5-10 years), i think the USD is toast. it's just a matter of what happens in the next cycle.
The Dollar wont go away silently. Money are the least of your worries.
Oh yeah? So if money is the least of our worries what is more important?
Food? Fuel? Water? Shelter?
Oh right they all require money to purchase those items.
Obviously you have NO CLUE what you are talking about.
You know how many ESL people there are on these boards, right smoothie?
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