Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1393.

labestiol

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 06:42:35 PM

Quote from: labestiol on September 25, 2012, 06:29:49 PM

I also don't think it's a game changer, since there is already good solutions to solve it.
Even if cheap ultrasound testers are not good enough, then I guess at least the big dealers will be able to buy good ones.

i don't like that solution at all if you expect any meaningful rise in price from here. any real solution has to come from the root of the problem on the production side. if that's even possible. any solutions that are reactive, such as US, are just bandaids as far as i'm concerned. and then that doesn't solve the trust issue with your dealer.

How can it be possible to solve that ? There will always be people making fake coins/bars, like n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU showed it's not a new problem. History shows it didn't prevented gold/silver to impose itself as money in history.
It's an arms race between people making these bars and people testing them. And people testing are winning. If these bars were not detectable without melting it, that would be a real problem.

cypherdoc

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this is just way too funny Cheesy

:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1220986

http://www.popgive.com/2008/07/dont-buy-ups-without-warranty.html

cypherdoc

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btw, i think its time to short miners again. i'm comin' for ya' silverbox! Wink

cypherdoc

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Quote from: labestiol on September 25, 2012, 06:29:49 PM

I also don't think it's a game changer, since there is already good solutions to solve it.
Even if cheap ultrasound testers are not good enough, then I guess at least the big dealers will be able to buy good ones.

i don't like that solution at all if you expect any meaningful rise in price from here. any real solution has to come from the root of the problem on the production side. if that's even possible. any solutions that are reactive, such as US, are just bandaids as far as i'm concerned. and then that doesn't solve the trust issue with your dealer.

n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU

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Quote from: silverbox on September 25, 2012, 06:10:45 PM

Coinage has been debased and counterfeited since the begninning of time. This is no different. I doubt even 1 in 1000 gold bullion coins/bars are fake. I'm not worried about my bullion in the slightest. If it was even as widespread as 1% counterfeit, we'd be seeing 100s of examples on social media and news stories.. Not the same 10 oz bar over and over again.

Indeed, nothing new under the sun. Once the very first coin circulated 2500 years ago, fake plated versions were immediately made, of which some have survived to this day:

Lydian electrum trite fourree with eight countermarks (3.41g). The diagnostics of this ancient fake are its low weight and the exposed silver interior. The electrum plating has worn off in some areas, leaving the silver interior exposed at the high points of the obverse and reverse. The impressed areas wound up with thinner plating, which caused the interior silver to be also exposed at the incuse square and countermarks. The dark areas show uncleaned darkly toned silver.

http://oldestcoins.reidgold.com/article.html

cypherdoc

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well, you know what they say, perception is everything.

labestiol

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I also don't think it's a game changer, since there is already good solutions to solve it.
Even if cheap ultrasound testers are not good enough, then I guess at least the big dealers will be able to buy good ones. It will perhaps add costs, but won't be a game changer. And clearly bitcoin is a lot less expensive to test.

But for sure with the rise in price of PM, these companies will have a bright future Grin

Severian

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Quote from: silverbox on September 25, 2012, 06:10:45 PM

If it was even as widespread as 1% counterfeit, we'd be seeing 100s of examples on social media and news stories.. Not the same 10 oz bar over and over again.

Hard to say. Most dealers won't say a word if they find a fake. The good ones remove it from circulation, the worse ones pass it on to one of their more clueless customers.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: silverbox on September 25, 2012, 06:10:45 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 05:53:59 PM

Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:26:11 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion...

You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ?

Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten.

imagine if just one Bitcoin was found to be filled with "tungsten" metaphorically; it would destroy the entire Bitcoin concept.

now you can say that it would be different somehow for gold or silver if "just 5%" or even "1%" were fake b/c of its thousand year history but do you really think that will be the case? how many of you can stand to have 5% of your stash to be fake?

Coinage has been debased and counterfeited since the begninning of time. This is no different. I doubt even 1 in 1000 gold bullion coins/bars are fake. I'm not worried about my bullion in the slightest. If it was even as widespread as 1% counterfeit, we'd be seeing 100s of examples on social media and news stories.. Not the same 10 oz bar over and over again.

there were 10 bars found in the middle of Manhattan. and do you really think the counterfeiters just pumped a few bars full of tungsten? no. i bet there's some huge operation somewhere in the Orient as well as elsewhere where they're pumping hundreds of these bars, maybe thousands and sending them all over the world. that's fine if you are comfortable with that but a big part of investing in pm's is that there will be later suckers willing to take those bars and coins off your hands at a much higher prices. this will have a chilling effect. this type of news is not good no matter how you slice it.

silverbox

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 05:53:59 PM

Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:26:11 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion...

You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ?

Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten.

imagine if just one Bitcoin was found to be filled with "tungsten" metaphorically; it would destroy the entire Bitcoin concept.

now you can say that it would be different somehow for gold or silver if "just 5%" or even "1%" were fake b/c of its thousand year history but do you really think that will be the case? how many of you can stand to have 5% of your stash to be fake?

Coinage has been debased and counterfeited since the begninning of time. This is no different. I doubt even 1 in 1000 gold bullion coins/bars are fake. I'm not worried about my bullion in the slightest. If it was even as widespread as 1% counterfeit, we'd be seeing 100s of examples on social media and news stories.. Not the same 10 oz bar over and over again.

SkRRJyTC

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 05:53:59 PM

Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:26:11 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion...

You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ?

Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten.

imagine if just one Bitcoin was found to be filled with "tungsten" metaphorically; it would destroy the entire Bitcoin concept.

now you can say that it would be different somehow for gold or silver if "just 5%" or even "1%" were fake b/c of its thousand year history but do you really think that will be the case? how many of you can stand to have 5% of your stash to be fake?

I think you have a better argument about this being a game changer than I previously thought.

Im not going to run and sell, or even test my stack, but keep talking Cypherdoc, you are convincing me.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:26:11 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion...

You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ?

Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten.

imagine if just one Bitcoin was found to be filled with "tungsten" metaphorically; it would destroy the entire Bitcoin concept.

now you can say that it would be different somehow for gold or silver if "just 5%" or even "1%" were fake b/c of its thousand year history but do you really think that will be the case? how many of you can stand to have 5% of your stash to be fake?

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:10:04 PM

Yeah, I was gonna say... It should be possible to get/build an appropriate ultrasound tester for $100-$300. I have some equipment I'll be experimenting with, and some Caltech-educated EE friends that should be able to help out... I'm pretty confident this can be done cheaply.

i'd doubt that b/c you need a sensitive probe with variable frequency adjustment for different metals and a console with display screen.

Melbustus

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Quote from: SkRRJyTC on September 25, 2012, 04:49:22 PM

Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:26:11 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

...What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? ...

I think the flip side is simply that fakes wouldn't be becoming more prolific after the bubble has popped and the price is on the way down. I think its much more likely that fakes start to flood the market as we build up to the real bubble top.

I don't know...how much does it cost to make a fake? Seems to me that it would still be profitable at much lower prices. And as someone else pointed out, fakes have indeed been happening for decades. People are just realizing it more now.

SkRRJyTC

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Quote from: Melbustus on September 25, 2012, 04:26:11 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

...What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? ...

I think the flip side is simply that fakes wouldn't be becoming more prolific after the bubble has popped and the price is on the way down. I think its much more likely that fakes start to flood the market as we build up to the real bubble top.

Melbustus

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:08:06 PM

i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.

Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion...

You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ?

Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten.

Melbustus

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Yeah, I was gonna say... It should be possible to get/build an appropriate ultrasound tester for $100-$300. I have some equipment I'll be experimenting with, and some Caltech-educated EE friends that should be able to help out... I'm pretty confident this can be done cheaply.

labestiol

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The real crazy thing to me is that dealers don't have even a cheap ultrasound tester. Pretty sure cypherdoc's one is not needed to see the difference (ZH people were saying something 200$ worth is good enough). I guess now more will, and will agree to do testing in front of customers.

But the good news is that it's yet another argument for bitcoin.

notme

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Quote from: SkRRJyTC on September 25, 2012, 11:57:16 AM

Quote from: notme on September 25, 2012, 11:50:13 AM

Quote from: SkRRJyTC on September 25, 2012, 11:48:29 AM

If this isnt a new problem, why is it now a game changer?

2000
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=xFQ1AAAAIBAJ&sjid=bSUMAAAAIBAJ&pg=3170,2691496&dq=fake+gold+bars&hl=en

1994
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=mjhOAAAAIBAJ&sjid=UxMEAAAAIBAJ&pg=2711,2001207&dq=fake+gold+bars&hl=en

1983
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=-j9PAAAAIBAJ&sjid=tAIEAAAAIBAJ&pg=2433,8840389&dq=fake+gold+bars&hl=en

Because we're at the top of a bubble.

hmm... Under all time highs + "we're at the top of a bubble" = does not compute.

Give it a year.

Severian

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Quote from: cypherdoc on September 25, 2012, 12:50:13 PM

so am i correct that when Armageddon hits and gold and silver resume its currency status that every tx will require the assistance of a magnet, ultrasound, electrical conductivity meter, and chime test? or just call Severian?

I think we'll be suited for this brave new world that's just around the corner.

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1393. (Read 2032274 times)