Author

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1402. (Read 2032274 times)

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 03, 2012, 09:48:37 AM
to reiterate:  if gold hits $1900 before it hits $1500, you both win 1 BTC from me.  if gold hits $1500 before it hits $1900, i win 1 BTC from each of you.  no time limit.

please confirm.

Willing to write another one of these for an amount a lot larger than 1 BTC?

no but i will bet you 1 BTC.  this would be my last bet extended to anyone here b/c clearly, as the only one around here who thinks that gold can go down, i don't want to overextend myself as i could be wrong and i don't want the mob descending on me here in this thread.  but winning 1 BTC from the great Trace Mayer would be quite a feather in my cap going forward  Wink

actually, i don't expect that my odds are much greater than 51-49% in my favor as the momentum behind the last breakout favors you bulls.  its just that i do believe in my TA and intuitive abilities enough to make what might be a really stupid bet.   and given the economic backdrop of where we are cyclically, i just don't see how Bennie, acting as a true modern day reverse Robin Hood, can steal much more money from the American ppl than he already has.

yes, at this point in time in the cycles, i am a Deflationist and that puts me in a distinct minority of one in these parts.  there will be a day when i turn Inflationist but its just not now.

What about Trace giving you better odds then ?
I can say it now that the bet is done, but i would have gone as far as 3:1 on this bet.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 03, 2012, 09:08:08 AM
to reiterate:  if gold hits $1900 before it hits $1500, you both win 1 BTC from me.  if gold hits $1500 before it hits $1900, i win 1 BTC from each of you.  no time limit.

please confirm.

Willing to write another one of these for an amount a lot larger than 1 BTC?

no but i will bet you 1 BTC.  this would be my last bet extended to anyone here b/c clearly, as the only one around here who thinks that gold can go down, i don't want to overextend myself as i could be wrong and i don't want the mob descending on me here in this thread.  but winning 1 BTC from the great Trace Mayer would be quite a feather in my cap going forward  Wink

actually, i don't expect that my odds are much greater than 51-49% in my favor as the momentum behind the last breakout favors you bulls.  its just that i do believe in my TA and intuitive abilities enough to make what might be a really stupid bet.   and given the economic backdrop of where we are cyclically, i just don't see how Bennie, acting as a true modern day reverse Robin Hood, can steal much more money from the American ppl than he already has.

yes, at this point in time in the cycles, i am a Deflationist and that puts me in a distinct minority of one in these parts.  there will be a day when i turn Inflationist but its just not now.
legendary
Activity: 1031
Merit: 1000
September 03, 2012, 04:10:16 AM
to reiterate:  if gold hits $1900 before it hits $1500, you both win 1 BTC from me.  if gold hits $1500 before it hits $1900, i win 1 BTC from each of you.  no time limit.

please confirm.

Willing to write another one of these for an amount a lot larger than 1 BTC?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 02, 2012, 06:28:58 PM
i honestly was going to take that bet from both of you but as gold is an important part of my newsletter analysis i can't be seen as having a conflict of interest.  too bad.

Should i conclude that you closed your shorts ?  Grin
Thanks cypherdoc, that was the best joke of the day

yeah, i guess you're right.  you're both on:  labestiol and SkRRJyTC'.

to reiterate:  if gold hits $1900 before it hits $1500, you both win 1 BTC from me.  if gold hits $1500 before it hits $1900, i win 1 BTC from each of you.  no time limit.

please confirm.

Confirmed.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 02, 2012, 05:22:49 PM
Confirmed Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 02, 2012, 05:03:23 PM
i honestly was going to take that bet from both of you but as gold is an important part of my newsletter analysis i can't be seen as having a conflict of interest.  too bad.

Should i conclude that you closed your shorts ?  Grin
Thanks cypherdoc, that was the best joke of the day

yeah, i guess you're right.  you're both on:  labestiol and SkRRJyTC'.

to reiterate:  if gold hits $1900 before it hits $1500, you both win 1 BTC from me.  if gold hits $1500 before it hits $1900, i win 1 BTC from each of you.  no time limit.

please confirm.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 02, 2012, 04:08:33 PM
i honestly was going to take that bet from both of you but as gold is an important part of my newsletter analysis i can't be seen as having a conflict of interest.  too bad.

Should i conclude that you closed your shorts ?  Grin
Thanks cypherdoc, that was the best joke of the day
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 02, 2012, 03:36:19 PM
i honestly was going to take that bet from both of you but as gold is an important part of my newsletter analysis i can't be seen as having a conflict of interest.  too bad.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
September 02, 2012, 03:12:00 PM
The way I understand it (and propose to bet on it), is :

If the price of gold go above 1900$ I win and the bet is closed
If the price of gold go under 1500$ my opponent win and the bet is closed
If non of these conditions are realized, the bet is void

I see. I won't bet against that. I think it's likely it'll go above $1900, but I also think it's quite possible the $ will die before gold goes below $1500. It might go below $1500 worth of SDR or something, though, but probably not before it hits $1900.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 02, 2012, 02:46:08 PM
I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.

I predict that gold will go over 1700 before it goes under 1600. : )
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 02, 2012, 02:33:18 PM
The way I understand it (and propose to bet on it), is :

If the price of gold go above 1900$ I win and the bet is closed
If the price of gold go under 1500$ my opponent win and the bet is closed
If non of these conditions are realized, the bet is void
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
September 02, 2012, 02:22:57 PM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?

I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.

Are you predicting it will first go over $1900 and then go under $1500 or are you predicting it will not go under $1500 without going over 1900$ first?
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 02, 2012, 02:05:19 PM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?

I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.

Agree, would gladly bet a symbolic 1BTC on that. Deal cypherdoc or adamstgBit ?

I would also wager 1 BTC.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
September 02, 2012, 01:23:14 PM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?

I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.

Agree, would gladly bet a symbolic 1BTC on that. Deal cypherdoc or adamstgBit ?
na i'm not betting on that
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 02, 2012, 01:18:35 PM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?

I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.

Agree, would gladly bet a symbolic 1BTC on that. Deal cypherdoc or adamstgBit ?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
September 02, 2012, 01:16:09 PM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?

I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.

ya but how low will it go when it goes under $1500  Tongue

i guess in the long run ( "gold bubble" or not ) you'll beat inflation with gold

but bitcoin...  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 02, 2012, 01:12:39 PM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?

I predict that gold will go over $1900 before it goes under $1500.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
September 02, 2012, 11:41:34 AM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.

so you've declared victory?  it's all over; gold is going to $30,000/oz?  what is exactly your prediction so we can put it on the record too?
legendary
Activity: 1441
Merit: 1000
Live and enjoy experiments
September 02, 2012, 11:22:57 AM
Quietness and humbleness are oozing from thread.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
September 01, 2012, 06:11:25 PM

I believe this would be the most significant section:

Quote
A. Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Items

The following exposures would receive a zero percent risk weight under the proposal:

Cash;
Gold bullion;
Direct and unconditional claims on the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
Exposures unconditionally guaranteed by the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
Claims on certain supranational entities (such as the International Monetary Fund) and certain multilateral development banking organizations
Claims on and exposures unconditionally guaranteed by sovereign entities that meet certain criteria (as discussed below).



Is that a change from current policy? Is gold bullion currently an "item" that's considered 0% risk by the FDIC or not? ... If this *is* a change from existing policy, I consider it a significant one.

aye, fairly certain that gold was NOT listed as qualifying as a Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Item before this update.

It will likely do more for the large holder risk assessment sheets than it will for would be buyers though.

I'm pretty sure that's new, too. Shouldn't we see huge impact on the gold price?


Gold was changed back in June by the FDIC for US banks, and the EU has very recently adopted the same policy.

But there's a cause and effect here.  It's because there is no good collateral left - every dollar has already been leveraged to the hilt, every promise to pay has been levered up multiple times to create new promises to pay backed by existing ones.  Meanwhile all the "good" collateral keeps getting downgrade so that it is no longer "good" anymore.

Plus you have the new collateralization agreements (Basel III) starting to kick in for international banks, which require higher reserves (far too little, too late, and this within the context that non-market banking always eventually fails).  And the banking systems in countries whose sovereign debts are downgraded to dirt cannot access good capital in the first place, because nobody wants to do business with someone that holds a worthless underlying asset as the foundation for their entire operating model (see greek, spanish, italian banks, who are literally bleeding money and have been for many months).

Long run it's great for gold, great for silver, great for anything liquid and not instantly and infinitely replicate-able (owned free and clear).  Short run, since gold collateralization is so new on that level, it will be great for actual cash notes, since all debts are currently denominated in cash, and there are roughly 50x as many promises-to-pay cash notes floating around out there as there are actual cash notes.  The world is overleveraged on a scale that will probably not be seen again for centuries.  Cash is king, and gold will be emperor (and hopefully bitcoin, the "perfect money", along with it, as it solves the problem of a corruptible central depository by overcoming that historically insurmountable element of human nature, which will never, ever change).
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