Author

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 183. (Read 2032248 times)

sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
June 26, 2015, 02:02:13 PM
Imagine if we hit the network limit in the future. To simplify, imagine we have two clusters of users, nodes and miners, connected with a starved link.

When a transactions is created in the one cluster, it may not be transfered quickly enough to the other cluster, where the next block happens to be found. Obviously, zero confirmation transactions will be of less use.

Due to the same starved link problem, a block may not propagate to a miner in the other cluster quickly enough, leading to a higher orphan rate, and may be to orphan chains of some length. That means the six confirmation safe level may have to be extended. Six confirmations have always been an advice anyway, for each confirmation the confidence increases.

In such a scenario, one cluster may prove to be the leading mining arena, and any miner must make sure that they are well connected to that cluster.

But will it take down bitcoin? No.

Moar nonsense from someone who apparently has insufficient experience in software engineering. Sorry to make this personal (especially with someone who has expressed some appreciation for my input on the forum yet with reservations about my etiquette), but some of you guys have no self-restraint. Some of you (and you know who you are) go on and on and on posting about technical issues without even the slightest bit of reticence nor shame that you might be totally-fucking-wrong. The reason this thread is not in the Development & Technical Discussion board, is because many of the posts in this thread would likely be deleted by the moderator there to prevent the promulgation of misinformation.

Hey n00bs, a starved link means it can never catch up with the transaction rate. Infinite confirmations won't help you. The two clusters will diverge as two forks with the BTC money supply effectively doubled if every HODLer can access both clusters.

The only way to deal with this situation is treat each of the clusters as pegged side chains of each other, then lock the value for each coin on one of the clusters (which is something plausible on a starved link such as a short wave radio feed). This is yet another reason I am excited about Blockstream's work.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 02:01:07 PM

Read the above long-winded, contentless, screed of cold leftovers if you like.  Or skim.  I'll be a good guy and break down the real issue right here:

Today's implementation of mining is like having a tin can tied to a horse's tail.  The fast the horse runs, the faster the can follows.  We've currently got about 6 miners (or horses so-to-speak) that make any real difference.

The main trouble with this is that each of the horses is going to hit the profitability break-even cliff at roughly the same time due to similar economics (though geo-politics could intercede.)  At that point there will be large chunks of sha256 power available since it's pointless to mine Bitcoin with it...at least for economic reasons.

The alternative is to try to match endless inflation against profitability not unlike how debt-based fiat systems work.  Bitcoin has so many sources of volatility that this would be a tough row to hoe even if it were (stupidly) chosen as a strategy.

Note that the economics of mining under our current paradigm are not even effected by block-size/fee-structure arguments.  That's a separate issue.



I don't even have to read his article yet to see that you don't have the faintest clue how bitcoin works. That's always been the case though.
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
June 26, 2015, 01:45:08 PM

Read the above long-winded, contentless, screed of cold leftovers if you like.  Or skim.  I'll be a good guy and break down the real issue right here:

Today's implementation of mining is like having a tin can tied to a horse's tail.  The fast the horse runs, the faster the can follows.  We've currently got about 6 miners (or horses so-to-speak) that make any real difference.

The main trouble with this is that each of the horses is going to hit the profitability break-even cliff at roughly the same time due to similar economics (though geo-politics could intercede.)  At that point there will be large chunks of sha256 power available since it's pointless to mine Bitcoin with it...at least for economic reasons.

The alternative is to try to match endless inflation against profitability not unlike how debt-based fiat systems work.  Bitcoin has so many sources of volatility that this would be a tough row to hoe even if it were (stupidly) chosen as a strategy.

Note that the economics of mining under our current paradigm are not even effected by block-size/fee-structure arguments.  That's a separate issue.

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
June 26, 2015, 01:20:57 PM
This is more of a fork than the blocksize increase, it is a fundamental change to the underlying protocol

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3b7260/checklocktimeverify_has_been_merged_finally/

Where is the analysis that proves this change is OK? I've been told that is the hurdle. Are users asking for this? Do users have options to reject it? Why is it OK that a small group of people get to fork Bitcoin.

This change forks Bitcoin into a BlockstreamCoin, and everyone is expected to just accept it because the "Board of Directors" have said to.

I'm not sure the Bitcoin experiment survives, I trust the developers know the code works, but i have no dough they don't understand the resulting ramifications and all the externalities.

In your view what is it that you see is controversial and some examples of how it works?
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
June 26, 2015, 12:22:38 PM
If we get a permanent fork out of this, there will be a fierce naming duel in the blogospere. I predict the two names that come out of it are bitcoin and blockstreamcoin.

Most probably, one fork will disappear so quickly that the fork will not be permanent, but exist only hours.


Soft-fork.  Doesn't matter much as long as there are some nodes which understand it, and no real reason for a node operator to not just go with it except for hard-core politics.  In order to fight it one would have to patch their node to specifically drop the messages since otherwise it's just random data which would be passed not unlike the very many extensions which have been soft-forked in in the past.  One thing about a flooding network is that specific discrimination is only as effective as one's ability to get a nearly 100% majority on-board.  Miners are the choke-points for such discrimination.

TL-DR:  you lose.

Note:  Actually these are my own assumptions based on my understandings of the protocol and expectation of implementation.  Edits: minor.

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2015, 12:07:00 PM
If we get a permanent fork out of this, there will be a fierce naming duel in the blogospere. I predict the two names that come out of it are bitcoin and blockstreamcoin.

Most probably, one fork will disappear so quickly that the fork will not be permanent, but exist only hours.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 11:57:44 AM
whoops, $DJT going negative again.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2015, 11:54:55 AM
Imagine if we hit the network limit in the future. To simplify, imagine we have two clusters of users, nodes and miners, connected with a starved link.

When a transactions is created in the one cluster, it may not be transfered quickly enough to the other cluster, where the next block happens to be found. Obviously, zero confirmation transactions will be of less use.

Due to the same starved link problem, a block may not propagate to a miner in the other cluster quickly enough, leading to a higher orphan rate, and may be to orphan chains of some length. That means the six confirmation safe level may have to be extended. Six confirmations have always been an advice anyway, for each confirmation the confidence increases.

In such a scenario, one cluster may prove to be the leading mining arena, and any miner must make sure that they are well connected to that cluster.

But will it take down bitcoin? No.

legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
June 26, 2015, 11:49:06 AM
This is more of a fork than the blocksize increase, it is a fundamental change to the underlying protocol

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3b7260/checklocktimeverify_has_been_merged_finally/

Where is the analysis that proves this change is OK? I've been told that is the hurdle. Are users asking for this? Do users have options to reject it? Why is it OK that a small group of people get to fork Bitcoin.

This change forks Bitcoin into a BlockstreamCoin, and everyone is expected to just accept it because the "Board of Directors" have said to.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 11:48:22 AM


This kind of talk will be used to remove the 21m coin limit in Bitcoin.

I'm sorry if you can't see it.

your disrespect of dedicated insightful ppl in Bitcoin is astounding.

of course, i wouldn't expect anything less from the Monero Pimp.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2015, 11:44:01 AM


This kind of talk will be used to remove the 21m coin limit in Bitcoin.

I'm sorry if you can't see it.

No, it's food for dreamers. Imaging all the people...I know I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one!
Lennon was a bitcoiner, obviously.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
June 26, 2015, 11:36:33 AM


This kind of talk will be used to remove the 21m coin limit in Bitcoin.

I'm sorry if you can't see it.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
June 26, 2015, 11:31:39 AM
Unbelievable!  It's almost as if subsidizing spam/noise transactions creates more of them.   Huh

Indeed, building wider motorways doesn't necessarily solve traffic congestion. A bunch of other things sometimes do (raising gasoline/car taxes/prices, regulation, unemployment, crime, alternative transport, virtual working, better city layout, emigration...).

Toll could remove congestion on the smallest road. But it does not solve the capacity problem directly, only as a price signal to entrepreneurs to build higher capacity roads.

There is a reason that metropols have multiplie high capacity multiple lane roads going in and out. They  need the capacity. The towns could not have grown to metropols without them.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 11:22:03 AM
corporate investment grade bonds.  not good at all:

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 11:20:58 AM
wow, this is getting some legs:

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 07:33:34 AM
Who continues to be so stupid in bailing these guys out?

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
June 26, 2015, 07:24:20 AM
Fascinating article about investor psychology and dependence on state intervention in Stock markets:

“The tone from the state media is particularly helpful to retail investors like me, as I have a job to do and am pretty busy,” said Yao, 35. “China’s stock market is really different from other countries. The government surely has some measures to control the movement.”

http://bloom.bg/1Nl6Wzh

The US is surely no different.
Jump to: