$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt. that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place. look the hell out:
Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.
None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.
The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.
The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.
Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.
unfortunately, you may be right.
the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008. and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece. except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening. the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality. and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened. the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top. i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat. is there a breaking pt? i think there is. but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when. this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead. but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days. quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.
i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time. only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.
Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.
We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.
I still don't think you can see anything in the charts anymore (or in the fundamentals) because what the FED decides to do in regards to rates and Ctrl+P has a much bigger impact.
The 2008 crash happened simply because 1) they raised rates the year before, which stopped M2 and M3 money growth and 2) they let Bear go down which telegraphed the FED would not always function as a bailout entity for the credit market in all cases (which it had since LTCM blew up a decade earlier).
We can see the same situation emerging today. 1) The FED is talking about raising rates (I'm still 50/50 on if they have the courage) and 2) letting Greece go down seems more and more likely, which will have the same effect as BearStearns. Bear caused the credit market to realize it was possible to lose money with bank credit, which caused a bank run and crashed the system. Greece will make the credit market realize it is possible to lose money with sovereign credit, which will cause a sovereign run. If you thought a bank credit run was ugly, wait till you see a sovereign credit run.
