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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 568. (Read 2032291 times)

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
January 06, 2015, 09:26:10 PM
What is your number threshold for a amount of combined pools over 51% in which you would feel safe? 10, 20, 100?  I don't think it would be hard to get 100 mining pools to conspire together.

There is no fixed number, of course. Rather, as the number of independent entities in a majority set of miners increases, their interest will be more aligned with the interest of the users.  (This is true of democracy too, by the way.)

In the case of bitcoin, one additional problem is that bitcoin ownership is highly concentrated too, and the largest holders are not miners.  So, even if the protocol were somehow fixed to require consensus of all miners (instead of just a set with 51% power), the miners would still be largely disjoint from the users, whether one counts people or bitcoins held.  So the miners might still change the protocol to increase their revenue at the expense of the users.  (Would PoS be a partial solution to this problem?)

The likelyhood of getting N mining entities to cooperate with a protocol change attempt depends also on the benefit that the miners will get from it.  For example, I would guess that nearly all of them would approve a postponement of the next reward halving.

That would destroy the confidence in Bitcoin, therefore the value of the bitcoins they want to earn.

For the same reason, they wouldn't be in favor of increasing the reward per block (although that may seem tempting to some naive souls without skin in the game).

... it's pointless arguing finer points of the technology with Stolfi, his admitted politics are diametrically opposed to what Bitcoin will achieve in terms of removing the State from monetary power levers. He is utterly convinced of the righteousness of bureaucrats to be in charge of the people's money, it is almost a religious belief if you drill down and get to the core of his objections. All his technical arguments are ultimately driven by a fundamental belief (faith-based) logic that has no reasoned counter.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1000
January 06, 2015, 08:51:22 PM
What is your number threshold for a amount of combined pools over 51% in which you would feel safe? 10, 20, 100?  I don't think it would be hard to get 100 mining pools to conspire together.

There is no fixed number, of course. Rather, as the number of independent entities in a majority set of miners increases, their interest will be more aligned with the interest of the users.  (This is true of democracy too, by the way.)

In the case of bitcoin, one additional problem is that bitcoin ownership is highly concentrated too, and the largest holders are not miners.  So, even if the protocol were somehow fixed to require consensus of all miners (instead of just a set with 51% power), the miners would still be largely disjoint from the users, whether one counts people or bitcoins held.  So the miners might still change the protocol to increase their revenue at the expense of the users.  (Would PoS be a partial solution to this problem?)

The likelyhood of getting N mining entities to cooperate with a protocol change attempt depends also on the benefit that the miners will get from it.  For example, I would guess that nearly all of them would approve a postponement of the next reward halving.

That would destroy the confidence in Bitcoin, therefore the value of the bitcoins they want to earn.

For the same reason, they wouldn't be in favor of increasing the reward per block (although that may seem tempting to some naive souls without skin in the game).
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116
January 06, 2015, 07:51:52 PM
Bitfinex continuing to jam forward

Shorts at an all-time high and continuing to rise with price.  Over 23,000 coins on loan.  I feel a squeeze coming on.



I feel a dump coming on. Gentlemen's wager..
hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
January 06, 2015, 07:48:44 PM
Bitfinex continuing to jam forward

Shorts at an all-time high and continuing to rise with price.  Over 23,000 coins on loan.  I feel a squeeze coming on.

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
January 06, 2015, 07:44:32 PM
I just skimmed the info about IBLT yesterday to figure out what the fuck that was.  Seems kinda cool.
....

And I'm pleased that you see the potential in IBLT.
I know that your concern is that Bitcoin remains viable in a global SHTF, Katie-bar-the-door event. This is important, and I think that Bitcoin having IBLT capability beforehand will only strengthen it in the face of such times.

 - snip - technical details of neat trickery

That I will grant you.  If we end up in my nightmare scenario, we'll need all of the elegance and efficiency we can get, and even that might not be enough.  As a general solution to some conceivable 'mad max world' problems where data distribution is much less reliable IBLT could be quite powerful I would think.

I hope we don't end up in the scenario I'm envisioning and I'm not necessarily expecting it.  But as I've said before, I already have access to Visa, PayPal, etc, and Bitcoin becoming one more such thing with no significant or theoretical advantages doesn't really seem to me to be worth working towards.  Further, while Bitcoin does and probably always will have some advantages (chiefly related to counterparty risk) it also has some architectural 'features' which will make it hard to compete with solutions which didn't start out shooting for some of Bitcoin's goals.  At least some of the initial goals.

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
January 06, 2015, 07:31:42 PM
So this might provide a credible support foundation (as opposed to miners tapping other revenue streams like milking the userbase for intelligence data.)

If there is revenue stream, it will be tapped, regardless of what other sources of revenue there might be. Those who don't tap it will be uncompetitive. It doesn't really matter if the baseline is zero or nonzero.


That is not true in a lot of cases, and this case in particular.  This because the intelligence only has value if the antagonist (in my opinion of things) has a certain quite large global footprint.

Markets are good at dealing with that problem. Look at google adwords. Millions of tiny web sites insert spyware ads for a bit of extra revenue and google gets a huge datastream.


I actually had to try fairly hard not to say that Smiley  It's distinctly not what I'd like to see the future of Bitcoin end up being...in spite of being aware that in the case of Google and other large players a lot of us end up with a lot of nice things 'for free' (so to speak.)

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 06, 2015, 06:59:55 PM
So this might provide a credible support foundation (as opposed to miners tapping other revenue streams like milking the userbase for intelligence data.)

If there is revenue stream, it will be tapped, regardless of what other sources of revenue there might be. Those who don't tap it will be uncompetitive. It doesn't really matter if the baseline is zero or nonzero.


That is not true in a lot of cases, and this case in particular.  This because the intelligence only has value if the antagonist (in my opinion of things) has a certain quite large global footprint.

Markets are good at dealing with that problem. Look at google adwords. Millions of tiny web sites insert spyware ads for a bit of extra revenue and google gets a huge datastream.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
January 06, 2015, 06:55:11 PM
I just skimmed the info about IBLT yesterday to figure out what the fuck that was.  Seems kinda cool.
....

And I'm pleased that you see the potential in IBLT.
I know that your concern is that Bitcoin remains viable in a global SHTF, Katie-bar-the-door event. This is important, and I think that Bitcoin having IBLT capability beforehand will only strengthen it in the face of such times.

edit: Inverted Bloom Lookup Tables.  I hate it when people use acronyms to much and to early for the average reader...  Basically they are a condensed way to notate a list of transactions (aka, a block.)  Thus, if one already has the transactions (because they've been listening on the same network and the network is working) they can assemble the same block as someone else and be sure it is right rather than download the block containing the same data they already have.  (As i understand things.)

Just a general clarification about how transactions are condensed in an IBLT. They are present in their entirety, but XOR'd together. Some might be familiar with XOR:



Basically, in an IBLT, as per the example above, the encrypt data, Plaintext and Secret Key, are instead Unconfirmed-tx1, and Unconfirmed-tx2. This gets broadcast and nodes decrypt it by subtracting out transactions they already know, in a pre-agreed order. If a node knows both tx1 and tx2 the resulting plaintext is binary zeros. If a node knows only one of the two tx then the plaintext is the whole other tx they didn't know before. If both tx1 and tx2 are unknown by the receiver then decrypt fails and the IBLT is rejected. The risk of the latter case is the new enforcement incentive on miners to be good citizens and include consensus unconfirmed tx in their blocks.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
January 06, 2015, 06:32:01 PM
So this might provide a credible support foundation (as opposed to miners tapping other revenue streams like milking the userbase for intelligence data.)

If there is revenue stream, it will be tapped, regardless of what other sources of revenue there might be. Those who don't tap it will be uncompetitive. It doesn't really matter if the baseline is zero or nonzero.


That is not true in a lot of cases, and this case in particular.  This because the intelligence only has value if the antagonist (in my opinion of things) has a certain quite large global footprint.  As an example, it probably does not have much value to Theymos what IP I come in on, and it may well be a negative to him so he may actually seek to avoid keeping that data at all.  (On the other hand, he may be selling it for all I know.)

I would anticipate certain sidechains emphasizing privacy and taking great pains to avoid data leaks in their operations.  This may limit the nature of the mining efforts from whom they will accept support.

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 06, 2015, 06:21:49 PM
So this might provide a credible support foundation (as opposed to miners tapping other revenue streams like milking the userbase for intelligence data.)

If there is revenue stream, it will be tapped, regardless of what other sources of revenue there might be. Those who don't tap it will be uncompetitive. It doesn't really matter if the baseline is zero or nonzero.

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
January 06, 2015, 06:16:12 PM

http://gavintech.blogspot.ch/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html

SCs will help too, it will be backup network :-)

I'm not sure I go along with that fully.  I wouldn't imagine sidechains having a very easy time of it with native Bitcoin in a state of turmoil in my conception of things.

Where I really see sidechains helping would be before troubles started.

For one, sidechains have a powerful incentive to keep Bitcoin working at least well enough for themselves to operate, but probably also well enough for everyone in order that Bitcoin remains credible as a backing store.  Indeed, as I've already (kinda) proven, straight forward simplistic mining does not have the long term potential to be profitable due to supply/demand issues with mining gear.  Sidechains would be almost forced to provide support for Bitcoin no matter what the profitability of doing so might be.  So this might provide a credible support foundation (as opposed to miners tapping other revenue streams like milking the userbase for intelligence data.)

For two, I could see sidechains acting as a force to split up mining unions as they might prefer merge mining different sets of sidechains and what-not.  I honestly don't know enough about it to know if that's a realistic hope though.

legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
January 06, 2015, 05:08:44 PM
The fundamental issue is that the centralization, which is inherent in Bitcoin, is incredibly minuscule when compared to EVERY OTHER FORM OF MONEY with its almost nonexistent barrier to entry.  It is the reason many of us like it.  Governments are busy trying to set up barriers for people to be their own banks with Bitcoin and force people to use the current banking cartels, but ultimately it is a bit difficult to prevent so long as it is easy to download and run a node..

I fully agree that the banking sector is an oligopoly.  And the same is true of the economy in general.  And centraliaztion of the economy invariably results in centralization of political power and collapse of the democracy.

But I do not agree that bitcoin is somehow different from banks. Because:

* The same economic process that created the banking oligopoly has already created a mining oligopoly; namely, the big fish grows faster than the smal fish, and may even eat it.
See 1

* The mechanisms that are supposed to protect the bitcoin users and the protocol from abuse by the dominating cartel do not work:
See 2
** Acting in its self-interest, the cartel will be careful not to destroy its market, but will try to maximize its gain in the long term;

** The cartel will charge monopoly-level prices and provide monopoly-quality service;
See 1

** Users who object to the cartel have no alternative except to do without the service, or to use a much inferior one;
See 2

** For that reason, most users just accept the cartel as a fact of nature, and even try to be friends with it;

** For that reason, the cartel can define and change its terms of service, and not even a supermajority of the users can stop them;

** New providers (banks or miners) who want to enter the market and survive must submit to the cartel;
See 2

** Therefore, unhappy users may take their money to another bank or miner, but cannot break free of the cartel's power;

And so on.

By the way, a majority cartel could, by following the same script outlined in my reddit post, also undo the Bitstamp heist.  All it needs to do is block withdrawals from that address (which it can do immediately and unilaterally, by its veto power), and then force the users to upgrade to a version of the software that includes a built-in table of exceptions: transactions that violate the normal rules, but should be considered valid anyway.  For the time being, that table would have only one transaction, moving those 18'000 coins from the thief's address to the new Bitstamp's address.  The input would have 'FuckAllThieves' as the signature; which of course is not valid for that address, but the exception table will override that. 

This change to the protocol will surely cause more revolt among the fundamentalist users than the mere extension of the reward schedule.  On the other hand, it would be much easier to justify to the general users, since it would undo what is universally viewed as a crime, redress the loss of the victims, and create a powerful deterrent of future bitcoin thefts.  In fact, this hack will probably make bitcoins more valuable, increase adoption, appease hostile governments, etc. etc..  And the non-ideological users are already used to the banks doing that sort of thing.

And you can see how this will end.

The fact is, you do not really own your bitcoins, even if you are the only person who knows their private keys. Since bitcoins cannot exist outside the blockchain, they are actually owned by the miners.  Your bitcoins will stay or move only if and where the miners are willing to keep or move them.  At present, the miners will only move coins  if they get a transaction request with the proper signature.  However, if a majoritary subset of the miners agrees to do something else, they will have the power to force the users to accept it -- as long as it is less harmful to the general user than being cut off from the service.

Just like them banks.

It seems your opinion is that there is no need for bitcoin and that banks and arbitrary enforcements based on claims of thefts conducted by centralized controls of wealth ledgers are the way to go.
This is fine for you.  Others may want alternatives to this to exist in the world and use each type of wealth unit for its purpose.

Generally, we disagree on most everything in this post, with especially your assumptions about what future behaviors will occur.  These things haven't happened yet.  With vigilance and individual action, these things may never happen because it is done in the open, and not in secret banking ledgers, as pointed out previously in my last post to you (which you apparently ignored).


1Certain of the matters discussed in this post are about future performance and constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Such statements are based on the poster's beliefs as well as assumptions made. When used herein, the words “anticipate,” “intend,” “estimate,” "may," “believe,” “expect,” “plan,” “should,” “hypothetical,” “potential,” “forecast,” “project,” variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ are often presented with the forward-looking statements themselves.

2They have worked so far.  Check the block chain to see if it is still incrementing.  Since your assertion is contrary to established fact, please show evidence.
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
January 06, 2015, 05:06:58 PM
Bitfinex continuing to jam forward

It's creeping upward. Honey Badger...
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
January 06, 2015, 05:04:58 PM
Finex 291.94, yum yum.
legendary
Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000
January 06, 2015, 05:03:20 PM
2) The blocks from both the attacker and honest miners build on top of each other in a single chain. In this this situation the honest miners include all transactions skipped by the attacker, and the attack fails.

Obviously the attacker will not do that.  It will ignore all blocks that the orthodox miners put out, and continue mining empty blocks using his last mined  block as the parent.  Since the attacker has more power than the orthodox miners, his empty chain will eventually outpace every orthodox side branch, and all the orthodox blocks in the latter will then be orphaned and discarded by all the orthodox clients.

Thus, every transaction request that the orthodox clients issue will either stay unconfirmed forever, or become unconfirmed even after having been confirmed several times.  Whereas the clients who upgrade to the cartel's version will not notice any difference.

Obviously, and so we are back to what I already stated, which apparently you didn't bother to read.

1) There are two competing chains where one chain has only the attacker's blocks and the other chain has the honest miner's blocks. The goal of the attacker is to make their chain with their inclusion rules the longest. The network here can optionally choose the honest chain (which is what Gavin's proposal does). It also require 51% to pull off, which I don't think is possible anyway.

Which is the only possible path. This path both requires at least 51% of total hashing power, and it requires that the honest network (users, P2P nodes & miners) to ignore the 2nd chain with all transactions included. Neither of these are likely IMHO, and why the attack fails.

Bitcoin is an ecosystem of human participants, not an autonomous machine that we have no influence over. Example during the March 2013 fork the autonomous machine decided to take the 0.8 branch, but a majority of human participants decided the 0.7 branch was a better path and shifted the machine back to that (causing a 30+ block re-org btw).

If a 51% attack ever happened it would be very visible and resisted by the majority of human participants, who all want bitcoin to succeed, and who would manually choose the shorter chain made by honest miners as the valid path. Gavin's proposal would automate this selection. A 51% attack, which is what you are relying all your arguments on, is both extremely unlikely, but also ineffective. Bitcoin would easily survive a +51% attack, but it will never have to because it is not going to happen.


But thank you for reminding my why I bailed on the academic path years ago and decided to live in the real world. You, like most academics I've encountered, seem to believe that writing long-winded obtuse arguments in a vacuum consisting of your own reality, somehow makes you intelligent or valuable.

You are not, you are like a colossi striding over a very small ant-hill.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
January 06, 2015, 05:03:14 PM
Bitfinex continuing to jam forward
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 06, 2015, 04:26:39 PM
Despite your claims to the contrary, the truth is that we don't know whether the experiment will continue to work or not.  But so far it is working, and every month that passes by where it continues to work increases the chances for continued success.  There are risks: the dwindling numbers of full-nodes, mining centralization, core development centralization, etc.; however, there's also a growing community of talented people passionately working to address these risks.   If it does work--if Bitcoin remains decentralized and continues to grow--then not only will it represent a great advancement for economic freedom, but it will also put that trillion-dollar pie in the sky within arm's reach.

The size of the user base and the price are not important for the experiment. But the distribution of mining power is.

Only if

1. The mining power is abused. That hasn't happened yet in any significant way, so Peter R's argument applies equally. Every month that passes without abuse increases the chances for continued success, albeit slightly.

2. The distribution of mining power is stable. The real world evidence suggests the contrary. Yet you ignore it.

Quote
those 4 companies (which may actually be only 3, or 1, or may become 1 next year)

Or may become 10. Funny how you didn't include that possibility in your rhetoric. I wonder why.

hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
January 06, 2015, 04:16:00 PM
Despite your claims to the contrary, the truth is that we don't know whether the experiment will continue to work or not.  But so far it is working, and every month that passes by where it continues to work increases the chances for continued success.  There are risks: the dwindling numbers of full-nodes, mining centralization, core development centralization, etc.; however, there's also a growing community of talented people passionately working to address these risks.   If it does work--if Bitcoin remains decentralized and continues to grow--then not only will it represent a great advancement for economic freedom, but it will also put that trillion-dollar pie in the sky within arm's reach.

The size of the user base and the price are not important for the experiment. But the distribution of mining power is.

You are entitled to you opinion, but in my view the experiment has already shown that the protocol does not work.  It does not achieve its stated goal: all users of the system now have to trust that those 4 companies (which may actually be only 3, or 1, or may become 1 next year) will not be more evil or insane than the bank cartel. 
[/quote]
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
January 06, 2015, 04:01:16 PM
2) The blocks from both the attacker and honest miners build on top of each other in a single chain. In this this situation the honest miners include all transactions skipped by the attacker, and the attack fails.

Obviously the attacker will not do that.  It will ignore all blocks that the orthodox miners put out, and continue mining empty blocks using his last mined  block as the parent.  Since the attacker has more power than the orthodox miners, his empty chain will eventually outpace every orthodox side branch, and all the orthodox blocks in the latter will then be orphaned and discarded by all the orthodox clients.

Thus, every transaction request that the orthodox clients issue will either stay unconfirmed forever, or become unconfirmed even after having been confirmed several times.  Whereas the clients who upgrade to the cartel's version will not notice any difference.
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