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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 571. (Read 2032291 times)

donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
January 06, 2015, 05:08:22 AM
When an incandescent bulb blows, then first it flickers, then it shines brightest then it pops!

2008 was the flicker, right now we are shining brighter... how much more before the filament gives out!?
Bulbs can last a hundred years or more.
legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
January 06, 2015, 05:04:58 AM
...and try to point out the moral arguments about the social economy based system claiming to replace an energy based energy wasting system.

FTFY, you are welcome.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
January 06, 2015, 05:01:53 AM
The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.

Exactly with an additional subtlety. Not only does the Fed have to print, they have to stimulate confidence because they can never print enough to fill the debt hole  and especially the derivatives mountain. If anything, the last 6 years has shown dubious levels of confidence, if any, along with demonstrably worse real wage growth. The Internet has spawned nearly instantaneous documentation of all the stealing going on.

The last few ramps this year have been nearly vertical short squeezes by the invisible hand which shows increasing desperation, imo. Now is the time to be cautious.  

sidhuajag, I really don't think you're gonna find your masses piling into a final blow off top.
What makes you think its over fundamentally? The flash crash looked like it was over but the fed didnt let it happen...

It may consolodate until next leg up until rates rise enough to become unsustainable..

Usd and stocks will return to positive correlation as they are doing now which means the real bull may just be getting started. I have 32k on dow as first target.

When an incandescent bulb blows, then first it flickers, then it shines brightest then it pops!

2008 was the flicker, right now we are shining brighter... how much more before the filament gives out!?
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
January 06, 2015, 03:40:51 AM
but aren't UTXO also held in memory?:

UTXO are tracked by every full-node bitcoin client in a database held in memory, called the UTXO set or UTXO pool.
http://chimera.labs.oreilly.com/books/1234000001802/ch05.html#tx_inputs_outputs

Great ebook by Andreas!
Yep, the UTXO set is the essence of the blockchain, however, IBLT is solely concerned with zero-conf tx which want to get into the blockchain  Smiley.

i assume you mean high volumes of unconfirmed tx's.  if so, how do we make the transition from the existing standard low volume method to IBLT?

Yes, and a proof of principle is already proposed: implementing it on top of the block relay service, which transmits lists of new-block tx hashes to subscribing nodes.

The reason is that right now the whole network could agree on the same 2000 unconfirmed tx, real-world business, but the next block mined can contain none of them. It could be full of previously unknown gambling dice-bot spam tx, a set which is 100% different. Because these tx validly spend UTXO, then the block is accepted, and the 2000 unconfirmed tx have to wait for the next block.

how is this possible?  i thought the unconf tx sets differences were supposed to be currently quite low which is the reason for IBLT in the first place? (sounds like you're saying we, in fact, don't have enough volume to make IBLT practical as of today)
...
so how do miners know which unconf tx's are known vs unknown, ie, which to incl in the IBLT to enhance block acceptance ?

The unconf tx sets differences are quite low. Unknown tx's are those which have not been broadcast to the network, and are known only to the miner who might have got them direct from a spammer source (for a fee). I was only giving an example of how, under the existing paradigm, a new block can consist of secret or private tx, not previously broadcast. So, although there is good consensus on unconf tx, the consensus can be ignored. Volumes are currently not high enough to make IBLT a noticeabe improvement to what we have now.

how do you arrive at 500KB or 1MB?  or are you just using the current 1MB block limitation of today into which you would fit the IBLT?  so are you saying that a 1MB sized IBLT equals 1500 diffs or an estimated 1% difference in unconf tx sets across network nodes or an equivalent 150,000 tx's block?

I was just using the current limitation, and also noting that 1MB blocks are occasionally happening already. The success of any node decoding an IBLT is probabilistic. The smaller an IBLT is, the higher the probability of decode failure. So it makes sense to start at a largish, workable size which can support a decent number of differences, such as 1500. The final block size, written to disk, could be smaller than 1MB, and might normally be for a while, but the disk blocks still grow with the ecosystem volume. It might take many years to hit 150,000 tx per block, which would* max out the 1MB IBLT.

*likely, but not necessarily
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
January 06, 2015, 01:00:36 AM
How is it all that justified Outahere.   Isnt POS just biased to the biggest holders, Im not sure how every negative you mention comes from or just from that main point ?
It's not about the biggest holders, it's about the fact that you don't even know if there are holders big enough to covertly double spend or reverse selective transactions. I have been against PoS since I first heard about it and try to point out the moral arguments about the social based system claiming to replace an energy based system. I've posted hundreds of times against PoS, but feel it's just not going to reach people because humans have two distinctly different amygdala responses to perception of threat. One of the few things I agree with Stefan Molyneux as he puts it "The reality of political power is very simple: bad farmers own crops and livestock -- good farmers own human beings..." and PoS is an ideal model for farming human beings.

I am not against people developing PoS technology, but I think it will ultimately fail.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
January 06, 2015, 12:03:19 AM
Your prose is amazingly polished and clear. You are a professor of something. Philosophy is my guess
Uh, thanks! Yes, a prof of Computer Science, at a public univ in Brazil.

prof. bitcoin troll. ... all of your claims in that lengthy (worthless) prose are unsubstantiated of course.
Aww, give him a break, it is a public Uni, so government payroll and in a country arguably even more socialist than the US.  It is a handicap difficult for most to overcome, at least until they are tenured.
We can't expect him to even nibble at the hand that feeds him.  Even though the criticisms are fairly speculative, at least he is looking at it.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1004
January 05, 2015, 11:42:25 PM

now imagine eying a SC for possible attack if you're a large pool.  esp a SC like Zerocoin which, if you're a US based pool, was made illegal by the US gvt.  you see thousands of scBTC riding Zerocoin yet you can't participate b/c you don't want to go to jail.  what might you do?

Not sure I understand.  Are you referring to the legality of securing the blockchain as a result of SC?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
January 05, 2015, 11:32:47 PM
Your prose is amazingly polished and clear. You are a professor of something. Philosophy is my guess
Uh, thanks! Yes, a prof of Computer Science, at a public univ in Brazil.

prof. bitcoin troll. ... all of your claims in that lengthy (worthless) prose are unsubstantiated of course.

I wouldn't say it was worthless or unsubstantiated, but a little mislead.  The main point being the lack of decentralization and the need to trust 3rd parties (mining pools).  However, you could say that regardless of how decentralized bitcoin is or was, it always relies on miners (pools) to secure the blockchain, whether this is 4, 40, 400, 4000 etc.. regardless of the #, they could at any time decide to collude for 51% hashing power.  There is no incentive for pools to conspire and regardless of the number of pools needed to reach 51%, there will always be a certain # of pools that "could" conspire.  There are 4 US banks that could conspire to destroy the USD, but what incentive do they have to do so?

now imagine eying a SC for possible attack if you're a large pool.  esp a SC like Zerocoin which, if you're a US based pool, was made illegal by the US gvt.  you see thousands of scBTC riding Zerocoin yet you can't participate b/c you don't want to go to jail.  what might you do?
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1004
January 05, 2015, 11:22:50 PM
Your prose is amazingly polished and clear. You are a professor of something. Philosophy is my guess
Uh, thanks! Yes, a prof of Computer Science, at a public univ in Brazil.

prof. bitcoin troll. ... all of your claims in that lengthy (worthless) prose are unsubstantiated of course.

I wouldn't say it was worthless or unsubstantiated, but a little mislead.  The main point being the lack of decentralization and the need to trust 3rd parties (mining pools).  However, you could say that regardless of how decentralized bitcoin is or was, it always relies on miners (pools) to secure the blockchain, whether this is 4, 40, 400, 4000 etc.. regardless of the #, they could at any time decide to collude for 51% hashing power.  There is no incentive for pools to conspire and regardless of the number of pools needed to reach 51%, there will always be a certain # of pools that "could" conspire.  There are 4 US banks that could conspire to destroy the USD, but what incentive do they have to do so?
STT
legendary
Activity: 4172
Merit: 1462
January 05, 2015, 11:20:51 PM
How is it all that justified Outahere.   Isnt POS just biased to the biggest holders, Im not sure how every negative you mention comes from or just from that main point ?
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
January 05, 2015, 11:19:25 PM
By now, everybody should be aware that an entity or cartel with the majority of the hashpower has absolute power over the network.
In short, no. There is significant power but not absolute power.
http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/19/bitcoin-and-voting-power/

I read that article before.  It is mistaken; users do not have voting power, because their only options are give in to the cartel or lose their coins.  Note that any entity that can jam some process for a sufficient time can force the users of that process to accept anything that is not as bad as the jamming itself.

You need to read it again, until you understand it.

If a cartel of miners tried to block all transactions, there would be code for a hard fork within 3 hours making some trivial change to the PoW that rendered the current mining industry worthless and the hard fork itself would probably happen within a few days. And then life would continue on as usual, except that the next set of miners would know how suicidal such a move would be (and on a more contemplative schedule further changes would be made).

hero member
Activity: 544
Merit: 500
January 05, 2015, 11:09:36 PM
Your prose is amazingly polished and clear. You are a professor of something. Philosophy is my guess
Uh, thanks! Yes, a prof of Computer Science, at a public univ in Brazil.

prof. bitcoin troll. ... all of your claims in that lengthy (worthless) prose are unsubstantiated of course.

A Taxonomy of the Troll

Class B bitcoin troll (lat.  trollus averagus)

-How to recognize: bait-and-switch thread titles and well-executed concern trolling; methods designed to fool the reader into thinking the troll is a non-troll.  

-Recommended response: agree with everything they say in a satirical way.  Their arguments are usually so flawed that simply rephrasing back what they said will reveal their lunacy.  This technique is especially effective if the troll doesn't recognize this attack vector until he's already sunken his ship.

-Examples: Nagle, JorgeStolfi, Edward50

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
January 05, 2015, 10:42:39 PM
Your prose is amazingly polished and clear. You are a professor of something. Philosophy is my guess
Uh, thanks! Yes, a prof of Computer Science, at a public univ in Brazil.

prof. bitcoin troll. ... all of your claims in that lengthy (worthless) prose are unsubstantiated of course.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
January 05, 2015, 10:09:44 PM
It looks like POS coins might be your thing. What do you think about Bitshares?
I know practically nothing about PoS coins; unfortunately the forums I have been reading only mention them to dismiss them.
Do you think that PoS solutions are immune to miner centralization?  Or will centralization only be delayed?

while certainly eloquent, you admittedly and surprisingly have very little knowledge about many of the ancillary branches surrounding Bitcoin.  before making rash judgments about Bitcoin, you'd be wise to research and understand how these alternative systems fit into and interact within the cryptocurrency space.  by doing that, you will get a much bigger and more accurate picture of how Bitcoin compares and contrasts. this is very critical information b/c one of the cardinal investment principles that i often parrot around here is that "most investors in the cryptocurrency space are going to lose money".  i say that b/c i have significant experience investing in markets and this seems to be a universal rule.  it makes sense b/c not everyone can get rich, not even most everyone.  in fact, only a small %.  bull mkts buck most investors off several times on the way to their tops.  which is why we have, for the most part, a small % elite class in every country you might care to name (ignoring of course crony capitalism).  once you realize that so many ppl are losing money on so many altscams you realize that the simplicity of Bitcoin is a beauty to behold and has fooled so many ppl, esp geeks, who think their time has come and they can design and deserve their own money making systems that cannot possibly lose since Bitcoin and tech are right up their alley.  it's quite striking.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
January 05, 2015, 10:01:43 PM

I read that article before.  It is mistaken; users do not have voting power, because their only options are give in to the cartel or lose their coins.

how can you be so blind as to not see there is a 3rd option for users which prevents the miners from exercising this cartel gambit:  SELL.

if users get the sense that there is any funny business going on with the fundamental process of fairness and honesty that was "sold" to them in the first place when researching open source, transparent Bitcoin, they will "get out" by selling their coins.  this would crash the price and all the profits the miners were hoping to harvest would vanish in a second along with the multi-millions they invested in their mining equipment.  we know this b/c it is a voluntary system that has grown from nothing precisely b/c of these promises.  which is, btw, why i have such a problem with BS inserting a change into the source code meant precisely to benefit their business model.
donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
January 05, 2015, 09:50:54 PM
Since PoS was mentioned I'll just deposit this as well.

PoS threatens human rights.

1. It's trickle down economics, or voodoo economics as POTUS 41 phrased it
2. No room for technological innovation, it's rigged for early adopters only.
3. Closed universe that can arbitrarily exclude groups of people with no entry point.
4. Can be secretly and permanently monopolized with no detection mechanism. No free market possible.
5. Deceptive practices to spoof decentralization can promote extortion and human traficking.

edit: Bitcoin mining pools also threaten human rights, but not the protocol itself.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
January 05, 2015, 09:50:40 PM
Your prose is amazingly polished and clear. You are a professor of something. Philosophy is my guess
Uh, thanks! Yes, a prof of Computer Science, at a public univ in Brazil.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
January 05, 2015, 09:49:28 PM
By now, everybody should be aware that an entity or cartel with the majority of the hashpower has absolute power over the network.
In short, no. There is significant power but not absolute power.
http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/19/bitcoin-and-voting-power/

I read that article before.  It is mistaken; users do not have voting power, because their only options are give in to the cartel or lose their coins.  Note that any entity that can jam some process for a sufficient time can force the users of that process to accept anything that is not as bad as the jamming itself.

This paper is more correct, as far as I can tell: 
http://hackingdistributed.com/2014/06/16/how-a-mining-monopoly-can-attack-bitcoin/

And here is my attempt to describe in more detail how the cartel could force a change of protocol that benefits miners:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qdfat/without_downvoting_me_to_hell_can_someone_explain/cn5s41z
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qmfgw/so_warren_buffet_says_bitcoin_is_bs/cn82t3q
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2qmfgw/so_warren_buffet_says_bitcoin_is_bs/cn7rxz1

Discussion of the "51%" risk often seem to assume that the attacker wants to either destroy bitcoin or to pull some scam, like a large double-spend, and then run away with the loot.  However, monopolies usually try to use their power to maximize their gains in the long term, and are careful to not kill their cash cows -- which does not prevent them from doing many nasty things.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
January 05, 2015, 09:33:50 PM
The USD desperately wants to appreciate.

The reason the USD lost so much value over the last century was due, not to base money printing, but to credit expansion, a.k.a debt issuance.

Debt is temporary. It's either repaid, or else defaulted. Either way of resolving debt shrinks the money supply as much as the original issuance expanded it.

As long as the population was growing, and as long as the middle class had positive savings, it was possible to expand credit. Now both conditions are no longer true.

Since it's no longer possible to continue credit expansion, the only way to stop the deflation caused by debt repayment and defaults is to print more base money (QE).

When QE stops, the USD resumes its natural appreciation.

Exactly with an additional subtlety. Not only does the Fed have to print, they have to stimulate confidence because they can never print enough to fill the debt hole  and especially the derivatives mountain. If anything, the last 6 years has shown dubious levels of confidence, if any, along with demonstrably worse real wage growth. The Internet has spawned nearly instantaneous documentation of all the stealing going on.

The last few ramps this year have been nearly vertical short squeezes by the invisible hand which shows increasing desperation, imo. Now is the time to be cautious.  

sidhuajag, I really don't think you're gonna find your masses piling into a final blow off top.
What makes you think its over fundamentally? The flash crash looked like it was over but the fed didnt let it happen...

It may consolodate until next leg up until rates rise enough to become unsustainable..

Usd and stocks will return to positive correlation as they are doing now which means the real bull may just be getting started. I have 32k on dow as first target.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1004
January 05, 2015, 09:14:45 PM
It looks like POS coins might be your thing. What do you think about Bitshares?
I know practically nothing about PoS coins; unfortunately the forums I have been reading only mention them to dismiss them.
Do you think that PoS solutions are immune to miner centralization?  Or will centralization only be delayed?

Here are some write-ups on Nxt POS if you care to read.

https://github.com/ConsensusResearch/articles-papers/tree/master/articles
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