simple maths that the Cripplecoiner's love to ignore. thx to Peter_R for highlighting the importance of the exchange price:
Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev
4 days ago
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I haven't seen anyone do the (trivial) maths on this. Have I just
missed it? By my count:
- blocks in 25 btc in rewards and about 0.5 btc in fees per block
- at ~$300 USD per btc, that's ~$7,650 per block
- current hashrate is ~400 PH/s; so ~240,000 PH/block works out
to having to spend about 30PH per dollar earnt.
- for comparison,
https://products.butterflylabs.com/cloud-mining-contracts.html
quotes $1.99 per GH/s for 12 months, which by my count is
60*60*24*365 / 1.99 GH/$ = 15.8 PH per dollar spent
- hashrate growth has slowed from about x4/quarter to x2/year:
sep '13: ~1PH/s
dec '13: ~4PH/s
mar '14: ~20PH/s
jun '14: ~80PH/s
sep '14: ~200PH/s
aug '15: ~400PH/s
- so, as far as I understand it, miners don't make absurd profits compared
to capital investment and running costs
- presumably, then, miners will stop mining bitcoin if the revenue/block
drops significantly at some point
- less miners means a lower hashrate; a lower hashrate makes
50% attacks easier, and that's a bad thing (especially if there's lots
of pre-loved ASIC mining hardware available cheap on ebay or alibaba)
- in about a year, the block reward halves, cutting out 12.5 btc or
~$3750 USD per block. without an increase in fees per block, miners
will just get ~$3900 USD per block
- the last time the reward for mining a block was under $4000 per block
was around oct '13, with a hashrate of ~2PH/s
- 13 btc in fees per block compared to .5 btc in fees per block is a
25x increase; which could be either an increase in fee/txn or
txns/block
- with ~500 bytes/transaction, that's ~2000 transactions per MB
- 13 btc in fees ($3900) per block means per transaction fees of
about
$2 for 1MB blocks
$1 for 2MB blocks
25c for 8MB blocks
10c for 20MB blocks
(assuming full blocks, 500 byte txns)
- comparing that to credit card or paypal fees at ~2.5% that's:
$2 -> minimum transaction $80
$1 -> minimum transaction $40
25c -> minimum transaction $10
10c -> minimum transaction $4
- those numbers only depend on the USD/BTC exchange rate in so far as
the more USD for a BTC, the more likely the block reward will pay
for hashrate without transaction fees, even with the reward reduced
to 12.5 btc/block. otherwise it's just USD/txn paying for USD/hashrate
- the reference implementation fee of 0.1mBTC/kB equates to about
3c per transaction (since it rounds up). Even 10c/transaction is more
than a 3x increase on that.
What the above says to me is that even assuming everyone starts paying
fees, the lightning network works great, and so do sidechains and whatever
else, you /still/ want to up the volume of bitcoin txns by something like
an order of magnitude above what's currently allowed within a year or so.
Cheers,
aj
Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 65. (Read 2032247 times)
@ ICETroll
you missed the edit at the bottom of the article linking to this tweet
https://twitter.com/OKCoinBTC/status/598412795240009728
You also totally misrepresent the article in your post (usual behaviour
):
There is another artilce (which I am sure you won't bother to dig out, and I ma not going to do for you) where they virtually agreed to an increase to 8MB blocks.
20MB was always Gavin's opening gambit ...
#REKT ... I don't think so ...
you missed the edit at the bottom of the article linking to this tweet
Quote
Update 10:08 GMT: OKCoin has pointed out that they sent out a tweet in support of the block size limit increase in May.
https://twitter.com/OKCoinBTC/status/598412795240009728
Quote
Block size increase makes #Bitcoin more efficient and enables faster confirmations. OKCoin's tech team believes it's the right decision.
You also totally misrepresent the article in your post (usual behaviour
):Quote
both exchanges recognize that the current one megabyte block size limit is probably too small for Bitcoin to reach mainstream adoption
Quote
“We believe in a gradual increase of the block size limit along with a hard upper limit to prevent misuse,“
Quote
BTCChina and Huobi shared concerns that a jump to 20 megabytes might be too big, while suggesting that a more sustainable long term solution should be sought after
There is another artilce (which I am sure you won't bother to dig out, and I ma not going to do for you) where they virtually agreed to an increase to 8MB blocks.
20MB was always Gavin's opening gambit ...
#REKT ... I don't think so ...
only 14 more pts to go...
whoops. breach in the hull...
sell, sell, sell.
PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/
I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.
the pro-bigger block upvotes on Reddit, IN GENERAL, are increasing in intensity and pitch and trashing Cripplecoiner's. the whole lot of Blockstream core dev has been "in absentia" for weeks now and even the personal attacks against me are subsiding in intensity.
poor Cripplecoiner's. the day of reckoning is nearing.
Reddit has made their decision, now let them enforce it. Remind me, how many divisions does Chairman Pao command?
The max block size isn't changing anytime Soon®; you are wasting your energy pounding sand here.
Trash PT and iB all you like, it makes no difference to the Honey Badger of Money.
Remember the day your beloved overhyped 20mb Gavinblocks' got #REKT like Germanwings Flight 9525? In case you forgot:
http://cointelegraph.com/news/114481/chinese-exchanges-reject-gavin-andresens-20-mb-block-size-increase
Hah, that was good times!
as Andreas says, "prepare to lose all your money!"
PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/
I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.
the pro-bigger block upvotes on Reddit, IN GENERAL, are increasing in intensity and pitch and trashing Cripplecoiner's. the whole lot of Blockstream core dev has been "in absentia" for weeks now and even the personal attacks against me are subsiding in intensity.
poor Cripplecoiner's. the day of reckoning is nearing.
Reddit has made their decision, now let them enforce it. Remind me, how many divisions does Chairman Pao command?
The max block size isn't changing anytime Soon®; you are wasting your energy pounding sand here.
Trash PT and iB all you like, it makes no difference to the Honey Badger of Money.
Remember the day your beloved overhyped 20mb Gavinblocks' got #REKT like Germanwings Flight 9525? In case you forgot:
http://cointelegraph.com/news/114481/chinese-exchanges-reject-gavin-andresens-20-mb-block-size-increase
Hah, that was good times!
only 14 more pts to go...
here's my theory.
the Fed might continue to threaten to raise interest rates all day long for months on end, which i don't think they will, but what is happening behind closed doors? is their PPT division continually printing to perform stick saves all along this sideways pattern trying to prevent a selloff?:
the Fed might continue to threaten to raise interest rates all day long for months on end, which i don't think they will, but what is happening behind closed doors? is their PPT division continually printing to perform stick saves all along this sideways pattern trying to prevent a selloff?:
what's a fair price for oil at this point? $25?:
oh my, Cripplecoiner's need to watch this from Andreas if you don't want to "lose all your money". also, keep going to the end b/c it's clear that Andreas gets it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jqpKEHYGE0&feature=youtu.be&t=40m11s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jqpKEHYGE0&feature=youtu.be&t=40m11s
$DJI getting ready to set a new short term low. i love this;
so if I understand correctly Peter's "landmark paper" rise to the top was.."short like leprechaun".
http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-August/009916.html
a valiant effort I guess. getting some more peer-review probably would've been of better judgment?
ps. I'm not against you "crowd-sourcing" your grammar but I thought the whole exercise on reddit made your thread unreadable.
http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-August/009916.html
a valiant effort I guess. getting some more peer-review probably would've been of better judgment?
ps. I'm not against you "crowd-sourcing" your grammar but I thought the whole exercise on reddit made your thread unreadable.
if it was short, which it wasn't, it was only b/c guys like you didn't understand the math and b/c of your myopia.
so if that wasn't enough, perhaps today's Gavin quote stuck to the top of Reddit with over 500 upvotes is good enough for you?:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fxvn8/gavin_andresen_on_his_vision_for_bitcoin_i_think/
PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/
I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.
the pro-bigger block upvotes on Reddit, IN GENERAL, are increasing in intensity and pitch and trashing Cripplecoiner's. the whole lot of Blockstream core dev has been "in absentia" for weeks now and even the personal attacks against me are subsiding in intensity.
poor Cripplecoiner's. the day of reckoning is nearing.
fiat is king. btw the hate bitcoiners have against fiat is far stronger than the political skirmish some moneranoj have against bitcoin (me included, I dont see reasons to use bitcoin anymore), seeing how bitcoin needs fiat to survive its quite a paradox it is hated so much, monero on other hand doesnt need bitcoin to survive.
So says the Monero pimp.
The problem with calling people 'fucking morons' is it really bites you in the ass when you say something stupid yourself.
Your "coup de grace" only serves to illustrate the point I have made several times here, that whatever anyone says, you will find some way to spin it to suit your own agenda.
Here is your last post, without the fancy words:
I don't understand why its fair for everyone to be able to use the blockchain, I'm afraid that somehow I won't be able to get more benefit than everyone else, so I'll call you names.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
Yeah its ad hom. sue me.
class dismissed.
Clearly sgbett is better than me at this
Peter's problem, if you call it a problem at all, is that I've only seen one person have the confidence or ability to step up and discuss the math with him. That's pretty damn impressive.
Instead, all we get is a childish scolding by a hand waving armchair logic dev also by the name of Peter.
Instead, all we get is a childish scolding by a hand waving armchair logic dev also by the name of Peter.
That's why I think this will not be solved with more debate.
More debate won't solve this *in the way you prefer.*
But more debate prolongs the stalemate,
Why monero matters
- Adaptive limits. Doesn't suffer from the 1MB block limits
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
Exactly
The problem with calling people 'fucking morons' is it really bites you in the ass when you say something stupid yourself.
Your "coup de grace" only serves to illustrate the point I have made several times here, that whatever anyone says, you will find some way to spin it to suit your own agenda.
Here is your last post, without the fancy words:
I don't understand why its fair for everyone to be able to use the blockchain, I'm afraid that somehow I won't be able to get more benefit than everyone else, so I'll call you names.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
Yeah its ad hom. sue me.
class dismissed.
How anything can be a mystery to someone of such overwhelming intelligence is the real puzzle here. Sidestepped again, oh woe is me. It's not my job to explain your own view to you. Only you can bring yourself to your senses, you've proved countless times that you won't hear reason from anyone else.
The thrust of the Rome Burning metaphor is not the fact that Rome burns, but that you are Neromeddling fiddling whilst it happens. You missed that point though, so eager to to try and deny that there is any risk https://medium.com/@octskyward/crash-landing-f5cc19908e32
...and gavin said what now?
The thrust of the Rome Burning metaphor is not the fact that Rome burns, but that you are Nero
...and gavin said what now?
There is a very good blog post by David Hudson at hashingit.com analyzing what will happen on the network as we approach 100% full blocks. Please visit that link for full details, but basically he points out there is a mismatch between when transactions are created and when blocks are found– and that mismatch means very bad things start to happen on the network as the one megabyte limit is reached.
The only mystery here is how you could possibly extrapolate "moral bankruptcy" and well being coming "at the expense of others" from Davout's explicit "everyone gets to benefit" specification. I suspect you are assigning moral solvency exclusively to equality of outcome, like a typical Free Shit Army Marxist.
And for the coup de grace, here is what Gavin said last month about your Sky Falling/Rome Burning/Red Zone/QUICK LET'S ALL PANIC-based attempts to ram through ill-considered hard forks using fear and mass hysteria:
Keep in mind this is the same Gavin who declared "increasing the max block size is urgent" back in early May. Gavin must be using some exotic radial definition of "urgent" with which I am not familiar, because despite his FUD nothing bad happened, and as a result of 'meddling by doing nothing' we now enjoy the benefits of better node/pool/mine configurations, smarter wallet software, RBF, fee market incubation, and pressure on SC/LN development.
Code:
Gavin in May 2015: "increasing the max block size is urgent"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"
#REKT
The problem with calling people 'fucking morons' is it really bites you in the ass when you say something stupid yourself.
Your "coup de grace" only serves to illustrate the point I have made several times here, that whatever anyone says, you will find some way to spin it to suit your own agenda.
Here is your last post, without the fancy words:
I don't understand why its fair for everyone to be able to use the blockchain, I'm afraid that somehow I won't be able to get more benefit than everyone else, so I'll call you names.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
Yeah its ad hom. sue me.
I decided that decentralised internet ego's have a tendency to disappear up ones own arse, eventually. Really boring process to watch, actually.
How anything can be a mystery to someone of such overwhelming intelligence is the real puzzle here. Sidestepped again, oh woe is me. It's not my job to explain your own view to you. Only you can bring yourself to your senses, you've proved countless times that you won't hear reason from anyone else.
The thrust of the Rome Burning metaphor is not the fact that Rome burns, but that you are Neromeddling fiddling whilst it happens. You missed that point though, so eager to to try and deny that there is any risk https://medium.com/@octskyward/crash-landing-f5cc19908e32
...and gavin said what now?
The thrust of the Rome Burning metaphor is not the fact that Rome burns, but that you are Nero
...and gavin said what now?
There is a very good blog post by David Hudson at hashingit.com analyzing what will happen on the network as we approach 100% full blocks. Please visit that link for full details, but basically he points out there is a mismatch between when transactions are created and when blocks are found– and that mismatch means very bad things start to happen on the network as the one megabyte limit is reached.
The only mystery here is how you could possibly extrapolate "moral bankruptcy" and well being coming "at the expense of others" from Davout's explicit "everyone gets to benefit" specification. I suspect you are assigning moral solvency exclusively to equality of outcome, like a typical Free Shit Army Marxist.
And for the coup de grace, here is what Gavin said last month about your Sky Falling/Rome Burning/Red Zone/QUICK LET'S ALL PANIC-based attempts to ram through ill-considered hard forks using fear and mass hysteria:
Keep in mind this is the same Gavin who declared "increasing the max block size is urgent" back in early May. Gavin must be using some exotic radial definition of "urgent" with which I am not familiar, because despite his FUD nothing bad happened, and as a result of 'meddling by doing nothing' we now enjoy the benefits of better node/pool/mine configurations, smarter wallet software, RBF, fee market incubation, and pressure on SC/LN development.
Code:
Gavin in May 2015: "increasing the max block size is urgent"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"
#REKT
The problem with calling people 'fucking morons' is it really bites you in the ass when you say something stupid yourself.
Your "coup de grace" only serves to illustrate the point I have made several times here, that whatever anyone says, you will find some way to spin it to suit your own agenda.
Here is your last post, without the fancy words:
I don't understand why its fair for everyone to be able to use the blockchain, I'm afraid that somehow I won't be able to get more benefit than everyone else, so I'll call you names.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
I don't really care about facts or reason, I just like arguing on the internet because I feel safe protected by anonymity and the lack of accountability it affords me. Look how I can misconstrue this quote to support my argument.
Hey everyone look at me I am super cool because I can make text red and I know what a hashtag is.
Yeah its ad hom. sue me.
Peter's problem, if you call it a problem at all, is that I've only seen one person have the confidence or ability to step up and discuss the math with him. That's pretty damn impressive.
Instead, all we get is a childish scolding by a hand waving armchair logic dev also by the name of Peter.
Instead, all we get is a childish scolding by a hand waving armchair logic dev also by the name of Peter.
That's why I think this will not be solved with more debate.
More debate won't solve this *in the way you prefer.*
But more debate prolongs the stalemate,
Why monero matters
- Adaptive limits. Doesn't suffer from the 1MB block limits
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
fiat is king. btw the hate bitcoiners have against fiat is far stronger than the political skirmish some moneranoj have against bitcoin (me included, I dont see reasons to use bitcoin anymore), seeing how bitcoin needs fiat to survive its quite a paradox it is hated so much, monero on other hand doesnt need bitcoin to survive.
That's so true. Agree with you wholeheartedly. Bitcoin is nothing in a real life without fiat.
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