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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 62. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
August 07, 2015, 01:42:53 PM
About centralization:

Absolute centralization does not normally happen in the free market. First, for centralization to happen at all, there has to be large scale advantages. If there are, centralization will start to happen, but there are at least two counter-forces (from the top of my head). The first is the cost of administrating a larger business. You need more layers of administration, and administration is costly and ineffective. Also, with few competitors, the whole business get complacent and start to deteriorate, making room for someone else.

The other point is the risk factor. Say the business centralizes, the best companies grow, steadily increases productivity, and at some point there are only two left, one of them marginally more effective than the other. The least effective of the two then have the choice to wind down, forsaking some of the capital in the process, or sell itself to the other, but for a price that may be low because the other has the upper hand, or, the third option is to continue grinding on with slighly lower profit, and then hope that the other makes a mistake. It is easy to make mistakes when you have optimized fully - bitcoin price move against you - power price, space rent, wages, some regulation, whatever. And the nature - a storm taking out power for a day and so on. Suddenly, the other company is number two and you are number one. The arrest of centralization will probably start far earlier, I believe we will have say twenty large operations, and hundreds of smaller, professional operations spread around the globe. And I mean mining factories, not pool operators. Those can be regarded as service companies for the miners, with their own centralization dynamics.


Bitcoin exists in no way, shape, or form in a 'free market' nor is there any realistic way that it will either in a socio-economic and political climate similar to today's or in almost any likely evolutionary or revolutionary increment of it.  This makes all of your theory based assertions and pipe-dreams useless.  Worse than useless actually.  All you have to do is open your eyes and look at almost any aspect of reality these days to see this.

Laissez faire strategies are very much to my liking and are an ideal in a lot of ways to me, but they simply do not work when one is under attack, and distributed crypto-currencies very much are and will be much more so going forward.  I (do) lobby hard for an active and pro-active defense and at least maintaining the ability to go on the offense when it makes sense strategically.

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
August 07, 2015, 01:08:36 PM
About centralization:

Absolute centralization does not normally happen in the free market. First, for centralization to happen at all, there has to be large scale advantages. If there are, centralization will start to happen, but there are at least two counter-forces (from the top of my head). The first is the cost of administrating a larger business. You need more layers of administration, and administration is costly and ineffective. Also, with few competitors, the whole business get complacent and start to deteriorate, making room for someone else.

The other point is the risk factor. Say the business centralizes, the best companies grow, steadily increases productivity, and at some point there are only two left, one of them marginally more effective than the other. The least effective of the two then have the choice to wind down, forsaking some of the capital in the process, or sell itself to the other, but for a price that may be low because the other has the upper hand, or, the third option is to continue grinding on with slighly lower profit, and then hope that the other makes a mistake. It is easy to make mistakes when you have optimized fully - bitcoin price move against you - power price, space rent, wages, some regulation, whatever. And the nature - a storm taking out power for a day and so on. Suddenly, the other company is number two and you are number one. The arrest of centralization will probably start far earlier, I believe we will have say twenty large operations, and hundreds of smaller, professional operations spread around the globe. And I mean mining factories, not pool operators. Those can be regarded as service companies for the miners, with their own centralization dynamics.

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
August 07, 2015, 12:28:08 PM
...  
I exchanged emails with Greg Maxwell over several aspects of the paper that he questioned.  One point he did make, that I admit is valid but do not personally see as an issue, is that the most profitable "configuration" according to the results from the paper is a single "super pool" made up of ALL the network's hashing power (which would be centralizing).  This would minimize the propagation impedance.  While I agree that this is true, it seems like just another way of looking at the 51% problem.  We already know that if one entity controls a huge amount of hash power they can do nasty things and gain certain advantages.  But it would be nice to find a way to explain why this shouldn't happen with more rigour than the "game theory" or "anti-fragile" fallback positions…
...


I think what a lot of the sharp technical people miss is that realworld markets tend to *not* centralize to a total monopoly, even in a commodity market. A lot of people correctly realize that as bitcoin mining commoditizes, competition will happen on marginal energy cost, economies of scale have large impact, and therefore the market will centralize. People take this to extreme and assume that therefore the market will centralize to a single player with the cheapest energy.

But that usually doesn't actually happen in the extreme. Mining companies will innovate and vertically integrate other services, where the margin on the higher level services easily eclipses any remaining margin on the core commodity product production. Look at oil companies or car insurance... There are plenty of players, despite very similarly centralizing forces as with bitcoin mining.

It kinda boils down to a lack of appreciation for human ingenuity (ability to innovate and vertically integrate driven by profit motive, etc). This is what I think a lot of the small-blockers and uber-decentralists fail to fully understand. I wish I could describe this more rigorously at the moment.

Anyways, great job on the paper, Peter. Awesome that you spent the time to formalize it - the community needs more of that.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
August 07, 2015, 12:17:22 PM
Peter, I read through about half of your paper and it outlines the issues very well. What it appears to me is how things will be moving forward there will be no block size limit and the network will be self-regulating as there is increased risk in creating larger blocks for more fees (i.e. pay off) in the form of that block being orphaned.

Sorry for the delayed response.  I've been travelling through different time zones and have had limited internet access.

What I am still on the side lines about is whether there will be a successful attack on creating a very large block like say 1 TB just be happenstance.

If there is no limit, then there is always a non-zero probability of a very large block being included in the Blockchain.  The thing is, that this probability becomes exceedingly small as the size of the spam block grows.  Another way to look at this, is the expected cost to create a very large block grows quickly with the block's size.  

I tried to illustrate this effect in Fig. 8:



Even with a propagation impedance of 2 sec/MB (which I'm confident is faster than the present network average), it still costs 1,000 BTC to produce a 1 GB spam block (and astronomically more to produce a 1 TB spam block!).  

Of course putting an upper limit on the block size could help I personally would like to see bitcoin stand on its own two feet with no limit restrictions on block sizes and let the free market of miners and attackers decide on how big the blocks should be going forward.

Me too.  I think BIP101 (Gavin's proposal) is nearly ideal.  If it were my exclusive choice, the only thing I'd change would be to keep the doublings going forever.  We'd double the limit every two year, so as not to create a major disruption with a sudden rule change, but still slowly transition to an entirely market-controlled block size in the far future.  If a genuine problem came up in 10 years, it's a soft fork to reduce the limit (which is easier than a hard fork to raise the limit).

I'll have to read the rest of your paper but so far it is very interesting how you have outline the major issues and put them into visual representations for all to see and understand.

Thanks!
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 12:00:57 PM
the short just keeps getting better and better!:



these guys used to be one of the biggest bulk carrier companies in the world.  not so much anymore:

http://www.dryships.com/index.php

legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
August 07, 2015, 11:54:38 AM
i think everybody and their mother is thinking that the USD is going to go up in the next crisis, which could be now.  i think this will be a mistake:


go up against what?

against bitcoin? probably not.
Against pretty much any other fiat, its going to go up guaranteed.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 10:54:51 AM
i think everybody and their mother is thinking that the USD is going to go up in the next crisis, which could be now.  i think this will be a mistake:

legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
August 07, 2015, 10:27:00 AM
Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).

Heat dissipation, possibly.

A huge mining datacenter will produce a lot of heat, and may not be able to make efficient use of it.

Whereas, a million individuals with ASICs in their hot water heater, may be able to utilize close to 100% of the heat. Then their marginal cost to run the miner is close to zero. The difficulty would rise to make the marginal revenue close to zero also, but it would still be an advantage to decentralized mining.

That's a really good point.  The amortized cost per hash, η, in the miner's profit equation can be made very low if the heat byproduct from hashing is useable:  



I think this means that a miner who has a larger η value (e.g., one who can't use the byproduct heat efficiently) must compete by having better connectivity to network hash power so that he can produce larger blocks to claim more fee revenue.

It would be nice to make a table of the aspects of mining that favour centralization versus those that favour decentralization.    
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 10:18:37 AM
yeah baby, In Sync!  i loved those guys, btw:



gathering momentum to the downside.

Dow -117.

uh, Janet?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 10:13:28 AM
Thank you to everyone for your acknowledgement of my paper--it is satisfying to see something you've worked hard on begin to make an impact in the discussion!  Like I said earlier, it was really just a formalization of some of the ideas we've been discussing here over the past months.    

I'm very happy with how the paper was received.  Between public and private comments (and Peter Todd calling it pseudo science) several aspects of the paper were challenged, and now I'm further convinced that the model and results are both useful and valid.  I think the most accurate criticism of the paper was that I should have spent more effort discussing the inter/intra communication issues (the "you don't orphan you're own block" point).1 Hopefully, I'll have time to work on this in the fall.  

I exchanged emails with Greg Maxwell over several aspects of the paper that he questioned.  One point he did make, that I admit is valid but do not personally see as an issue, is that the most profitable "configuration" according to the results from the paper is a single "super pool" made up of ALL the network's hashing power (which would be centralizing).  This would minimize the propagation impedance.  While I agree that this is true, it seems like just another way of looking at the 51% problem.  We already know that if one entity controls a huge amount of hash power they can do nasty things and gain certain advantages.  But it would be nice to find a way to explain why this shouldn't happen with more rigour than the "game theory" or "anti-fragile" fallback positions…


The experiment with the $10 bounties produced a mixed result.  On the one hand, I think it got people who normally wouldn't read such a paper more involved in the discussion, but on the other hand (like brg444 pointed out) it may have made the thread less readable.  I ended up paying out $90 to catch several small errors.  The error I was most pleased to catch was Noosterdam's "innumerate" versus "enumerate."  I think I've been using these words interchangeably my entire life but they actually mean very different things!


1Note that the math is valid nonetheless, as this just affects the propagation delay which was accounted for in the model.  

I can't think of any economic disincentives against centralizing, independent of the block size issue and propagation. You always get economies of scale (e.g., you produce one mask for every new ASIC, but that mask let's you order 10 thousand or 10 million chips depending on your budget/scale... lots of other examples too like data center staff come to mind).

EXCEPT, the game theory arguments. The bitcoins you mine are likely to be worth less simply because people won't like the idea of you having all of the control. Even if people didn't mind that you had 100% control, they would certainly mind if you abused your power.

Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).

here's a very real everyday example of the decentralizing effects Bitcoin is having on ppl:

"The domain expertise, relationships, and career equity I've built are things I never could have done while at Goldman," Chou said. "As a former trader, I'm glad I made this trade-off at the stage of my career that I did."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/07/us-usa-bitcoin-wall-street-analysis-idUSKCN0QC0EO20150807
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 10:01:02 AM
yeah baby, In Sync!  i loved those guys, btw:

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 09:53:24 AM
Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).

Heat dissipation, possibly.

A huge mining datacenter will produce a lot of heat, and may not be able to make efficient use of it.

Whereas, a million individuals with ASICs in their hot water heater, may be able to utilize close to 100% of the heat. Then their marginal cost to run the miner is close to zero. The difficulty would rise to make the marginal revenue close to zero also, but it would still be an advantage to decentralized mining.

very good pt.  also, those small asics will dissipate the heat much more efficiently even if they can't utilize it.


rofl, keep dreamin.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 09:08:14 AM
EXCEPT, the game theory arguments. The bitcoins you mine are likely to be worth less simply because people won't like the idea of you having all of the control. Even if people didn't mind that you had 100% control, they would certainly mind if you abused your power.

Am I missing something?

i don't think you are:

[–]cypherdoc2 0 points 2 hours ago

It wouldn't die because Bitcoin owners have an almost infinite reason to defend the network; the potential for Bitcoin to Moon as a result of its fixed monetary supply.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3g3qje/serious_if_the_block_size_limit_was_removed_why/ctuotpg
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 09:02:33 AM
Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).

Heat dissipation, possibly.

A huge mining datacenter will produce a lot of heat, and may not be able to make efficient use of it.

Whereas, a million individuals with ASICs in their hot water heater, may be able to utilize close to 100% of the heat. Then their marginal cost to run the miner is close to zero. The difficulty would rise to make the marginal revenue close to zero also, but it would still be an advantage to decentralized mining.

very good pt.  also, those small asics will dissipate the heat much more efficiently even if they can't utilize it.
legendary
Activity: 2002
Merit: 1040
August 07, 2015, 08:26:13 AM
We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets.

This prediction will fail.

First it was this Fall, now it's next Spring.  Roll Eyes
full member
Activity: 236
Merit: 100
August 07, 2015, 08:13:34 AM
Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).

Heat dissipation, possibly.

A huge mining datacenter will produce a lot of heat, and may not be able to make efficient use of it.

Whereas, a million individuals with ASICs in their hot water heater, may be able to utilize close to 100% of the heat. Then their marginal cost to run the miner is close to zero. The difficulty would rise to make the marginal revenue close to zero also, but it would still be an advantage to decentralized mining.
legendary
Activity: 1473
Merit: 1086
August 07, 2015, 06:24:33 AM
We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets.

This prediction will fail.

I think TBTB is over exaggerating the effect of a strong dollar regarding bitcoin. While it's true, that the euro will lose purchasing power compared to the dollar, bitcoin will function as a safe heaven to store wealth when europe starts crashing. For example, for me it's much easier to transfer euro to bitcoin than euro to dollar. Also I am in controle of my wealth and I am out of reach of the banks and the state.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1004
August 07, 2015, 02:06:45 AM
We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets.

This prediction will fail.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
August 07, 2015, 02:03:49 AM
continuing the plunge:

sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
August 06, 2015, 11:49:58 PM
But only 250.000(sic!) adresses are active ... https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses. In january the number dropped to 116.000.

I don't understand why upthread comments say that you are only quoting data for one wallet. The above data is for all addresses on the block chain. Duh!    Roll Eyes

I think it is very likely that Bitcoin adoption has stalled.

And it is very likely that active use is much less than a million users.

There are likely a million+ users who hold balances though.

I wouldn't worry about it. We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets. Commodities are declining.

Next year we will bottom and see the interest in private assets grow again, but it will be driven more by anti-government sentiment (due to expropriation in the EU) and thus anonymous coins will receive much more interest than Bitcoin.

Hi klee. Thanks for that.

however, i was hoping for a chart resembling this, with gold charted in.


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