yes, it's like the Fed when they print money. you don't see the inflationary effects at first b/c you aren't the one who first touches the money. only with time and in retrospect do you realize, oh shit, what just happened to the value of my money?
i think we're already beginning to see this since the SC whitepaper. i had no idea Adrian-X was selling. and neither did anyone else. he's correctly anticipating, along with the market apparently, a decreased equilibrium in the BTC price if SC's get implemented. and yet a failure of Bitcoin has not yet been priced in. you can argue the merit of this argument but we now have at least an example set of 1. and we also have explained in a detailed, plausible, yet painfully contentious, and prolonged way how this dynamic might occur. this doesn't mean, however, that the price can't stabilize from here or even start going back up. but if Blockstream continues to advance their agenda, i would expect major selloffs at each step of the way which will not be fully balanced by those who hope that SC's don't become a reality.
i actually don't think the Blockstream core devs even realize what SC's will do economically. they never did an economic study after all.
I dough I'll have any impact, more over the bigger impact is the accumulation flow has switched, it is now in reverse, I'm not picking up cheep coins anymore, as I dont see them as cheep at the moment.
In my little investment brain - , note I dont have a good track record of investing bitcoins - selling a huge stake for gold at golds top, but being true to my understanding the primary reason i felt confident with bitcoin in the first place, isn't reflected in the majority of vocal bitcoiners opinions.
the real trigger is all this regulation, i feel it's holding back illicit uses for bitcoin, and there will be a net sell-off through the first anonymous outlet, most likely enabled through a SC's (while the risk SC provide will take time to manifest we may still see growth spurts in Bitcoin,)
