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Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 798. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 12:35:00 PM
My point being there will be a motive to short the SC token.

great point.  the shorts will do this b/c they will recognize that the SC is less secure and more prone to failure.

as they drive the price of scBTC down, all those here who think the 1:1 peg demands that the price of 1 BTC= 1 scBTC will sell their BTC to follow.

No one will try to short scBTC. If someone tried, people will buy the lower priced scBTC, transfer them to BTC and sell them for the real price.

let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's to be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure. 

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.

I'll take your arguments only if you sell me your bitcoins for $100 or at least you find me somebody who sell. :-)

you can try to personalize this but it doesn't negate my generalized market based argument.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 12:34:07 PM
Alot of scBTC will be only valuable inside community what creates(and secure) them. But inside this community it will have value exactly 1 BTC. No matter what is your value. It is win : win strategy
a) they do not spam bitcoin network.
b) they do not pay transaction fees.

And it can be more secure than Bitcoin -> b/c those members can met in personally and build safe "oracle (timestamp server)" what will sign every transaction.

why use Bitcoin then?  you might as well use Berkshare Bucks if you want or desire such a centralized solution.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
November 01, 2014, 12:26:54 PM
My point being there will be a motive to short the SC token.

great point.  the shorts will do this b/c they will recognize that the SC is less secure and more prone to failure.

as they drive the price of scBTC down, all those here who think the 1:1 peg demands that the price of 1 BTC= 1 scBTC will sell their BTC to follow.

No one will try to short scBTC. If someone tried, people will buy the lower priced scBTC, transfer them to BTC and sell them for the real price.

let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's to be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure. 

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.

I'll take your arguments only if you sell me your bitcoins for $100 or at least you find me somebody who sell. :-)
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 12:21:13 PM
My point being there will be a motive to short the SC token.

great point.  the shorts will do this b/c they will recognize that the SC is less secure and more prone to failure.

as they drive the price of scBTC down, all those here who think the 1:1 peg demands that the price of 1 BTC= 1 scBTC will sell their BTC to follow.

No one will try to short scBTC. If someone tried, people will buy the lower priced scBTC, transfer them to BTC and sell them for the real price.

let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's to be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure. 

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.
legendary
Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
November 01, 2014, 12:20:06 PM
I read it but I feel like I'm missing something:

Quote
its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.
Can you elaborate? How are the both to be pegged? How is the peg rate determined, and does it float?

Since you are free to move coins between BTC and scBTC, the price will be the same. You don't sell scBTC for a lower price when you can transfer it back to BTC and sell it for the full price.
legendary
Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
November 01, 2014, 12:18:18 PM
My point being there will be a motive to short the SC token.

great point.  the shorts will do this b/c they will recognize that the SC is less secure and more prone to failure.

as they drive the price of scBTC down, all those here who think the 1:1 peg demands that the price of 1 BTC= 1 scBTC will sell their BTC to follow.

No one will try to short scBTC. If someone tried, people will buy the lower priced scBTC, transfer them to BTC and sell them for the real price.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
November 01, 2014, 12:16:59 PM
I read it but I feel like I'm missing something:

Quote
its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.
Can you elaborate? How are the both to be pegged? How is the peg rate determined, and does it float?

The free market.  Shudder the thought.

legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
November 01, 2014, 12:13:05 PM
let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.  

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.

But why will you move the coins in the first place???

for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows?  we know it will occur.

But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transfering them back to BTC?

you don't have to do anything.  the arb bots will take care of it for you.

What??? Someone have to sell the cheap coins?

do you seriously think that when a SC is first established on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in fiat terms?.  it can't be b/c of newness, less security, chance of failure, etc.  with time, as it proves itself, the arb bots will equilibrate the price but at a lower level b/c of the always present risk of failure of the SC.  the SC is not Bitcoin.  

"newness, less security, chance of failure, etc." is compensated with "increased utility"  so yes on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in is fiat terms and forever until SC crash.

another way to address your point is that a "theoretical" will never trump a "known".

we know MM is less secure than direct mining.  we don't know that a new untested "innovation" will counter weigh the value of less security.

MM is only one type of SC (it is good only for world wide use).  It is possible to use "oracle" for mining or ...  group of people at an island can use private SC with fixed difficulity (b/c they know each others) ... they can use their virtual currency, and this currency can be exchanged 1:1 bitcoin. They do not have to pay transaction fees if they agree and use only 1 confirmation (every 2 min).

any SC that employs security any less than MM is even less secure.  therefore, its scBTC will be valued even less.  the feedback thru arb bots will be to drag down BTC even more.

Alot of scBTC will be only valuable inside community what creates(and secure) them. But inside this community it will have value exactly 1 BTC. No matter what is your value. It is win : win strategy
a) they do not spam bitcoin network.
b) they do not pay transaction fees.

And it can be more secure than Bitcoin -> b/c those members can met in personally and build safe "oracle (timestamp server)" what will sign every transaction.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
November 01, 2014, 12:11:45 PM
I read it but I feel like I'm missing something:

Quote
its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.
Can you elaborate? How are the both to be pegged? How is the peg rate determined, and does it float?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 12:03:35 PM
My point being there will be a motive to short the SC token.

great point.  the shorts will do this b/c they will recognize that the SC is less secure and more prone to failure.

as they drive the price of scBTC down, all those here who think the 1:1 peg demands that the price of 1 BTC= 1 scBTC will sell their BTC to follow.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 11:58:15 AM
simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
I haven't kept up with the side chain hype. What's the mechanism of arbitrage here? How would you be able to profit off a price differential between this sidechain coin and bitcoin?

read up above
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
November 01, 2014, 11:56:43 AM
simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
I haven't kept up with the side chain hype. What's the mechanism of arbitrage here? How would you be able to profit off a price differential between this sidechain coin and bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
November 01, 2014, 11:48:48 AM
...
As for the Blockstream guys, making a living off an open-source project is very common and most often benefits both the community and the clients who will pay them.  You may be serious in trying to spin this thing as something nefarious, but in that case you are just showing more of you ignorance.

The point is less that "it happens all the time", and more that SC are potentially competition for Bitcoin as much as they are collaboration with Bitcoin.
How many of your competition work in the core engine of your business, and how comfortable are you with that notion?

I strongly reject the premise that there is any 'competition' here.  Sidechains are to me (and have been since mid 2011) the natural progression of Bitcoin which will allow it to serve it's promise to the edges of it's userbase (free individuals) in a flexible way while preserving defense against those who would be threatened by such a solution and allowing it to adapt to meet the defensive challenges.  Put another way; to scale.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 11:44:11 AM
let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.  

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.

But why will you move the coins in the first place???

for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows?  we know it will occur.

But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transfering them back to BTC?

you don't have to do anything.  the arb bots will take care of it for you.

What??? Someone have to sell the cheap coins?

do you seriously think that when a SC is first established on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in fiat terms?.  it can't be b/c of newness, less security, chance of failure, etc.  with time, as it proves itself, the arb bots will equilibrate the price but at a lower level b/c of the always present risk of failure of the SC.  the SC is not Bitcoin.  

"newness, less security, chance of failure, etc." is compensated with "increased utility"  so yes on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in is fiat terms and forever until SC crash.

another way to address your point is that a "theoretical" will never trump a "known".

we know MM is less secure than direct mining.  we don't know that a new untested "innovation" will counter weigh the value of less security.

MM is only one type of SC (it is good only for world wide use).  It is possible to use "oracle" for mining or ...  group of people at an island can use private SC with fixed difficulity (b/c they know each others) ... they can use their virtual currency, and this currency can be exchanged 1:1 bitcoin. They do not have to pay transaction fees if they agree and use only 1 confirmation (every 2 min).

any SC that employs security any less than MM is even less secure.  therefore, its scBTC will be valued even less.  the feedback thru arb bots will be to drag down BTC even more.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
November 01, 2014, 11:40:42 AM
let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.  

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.

But why will you move the coins in the first place???

for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows?  we know it will occur.

But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transfering them back to BTC?

you don't have to do anything.  the arb bots will take care of it for you.

What??? Someone have to sell the cheap coins?

do you seriously think that when a SC is first established on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in fiat terms?.  it can't be b/c of newness, less security, chance of failure, etc.  with time, as it proves itself, the arb bots will equilibrate the price but at a lower level b/c of the always present risk of failure of the SC.  the SC is not Bitcoin.  

"newness, less security, chance of failure, etc." is compensated with "increased utility"  so yes on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in is fiat terms and forever until SC crash.

another way to address your point is that a "theoretical" will never trump a "known".

we know MM is less secure than direct mining.  we don't know that a new untested "innovation" will counter weigh the value of less security.

MM is only one type of SC (it is good only for world wide use).  It is possible to use "oracle" for mining or ...  group of people at an island can use private SC with fixed difficulity (b/c they know each others) ... they can use their virtual currency, and this currency can be exchanged 1:1 bitcoin. They do not have to pay transaction fees if they agree and use only 1 confirmation (every 2 min).
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
November 01, 2014, 11:37:11 AM
simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.


its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?

look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE.  that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less.  that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots.

Yes SC is LESS SECURE, but SC allow you trade bitcoins or SC will add diferent feature  e.g. fast confirmation. The key is   1 BTC on MC = 1 BTC on SC

Dream on. If it's a competing token there is an opportunity cost let's say laundering dirty coins or anonymity for the illegal activities. Then there is the SC needs an economic incentive to survive that erosion will degrade the 1:1 peg.

Bitcoin already does this? Unregulated exchanges already exist, say into alt coins or BTC-E. No rush out the door to alt coins so far.
Bitcoin is a self contained economic system. It's all priced in in Bitcoin. My point being there will be a motive to short the SC token.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 11:31:53 AM
simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.


its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?

look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE.  that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less.  that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots.

Yes SC is LESS SECURE, but SC allow you trade bitcoins or SC will add diferent feature  e.g. fast confirmation. The key is   1 BTC on MC = 1 BTC on SC

Dream on. If it's a competing token there is an opportunity cost let's say laundering dirty coins or anonymity for the illegal activities. Then there is the SC needs an economic incentive to survive that erosion will degrade the 1:1 peg.

Bitcoin already does this? Unregulated exchanges already exist, say into alt coins or BTC-E. No rush out the door to alt coins so far.

that's b/c altcoins don't have the luxury of being MM'd by the Bitcoin miners.

the only chance SC's have to sell their whole concept is if Austin Hill can introduce a market distortion by convincing miners to MM.  you know, the "something for nothing" concept.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
November 01, 2014, 11:31:00 AM
forever until SC crash.

you just proved my point.  that single fact means a scBTC will forever be worth less than a BTC.  

thru arbitrage, the scBTC will drag down the BTC price to where it "appears" they are equal in fiat terms.

The point is there is not a 100% guarantee on a 1:1 risk relationship could inverse if after Bitcoins mining reward is lower than the SC.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
November 01, 2014, 11:27:48 AM
in fact, is this what the market is pricing in now since the announcement?

The announcement that the Bitcoin Foundation is going to try to make Bitcoin experience exponential block size growth as a hard fork?  That announcement?

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
November 01, 2014, 11:27:17 AM
let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.

you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger.  it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.  

b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.

But why will you move the coins in the first place???

for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows?  we know it will occur.

But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transfering them back to BTC?

you don't have to do anything.  the arb bots will take care of it for you.

What??? Someone have to sell the cheap coins?

do you seriously think that when a SC is first established on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in fiat terms?.  it can't be b/c of newness, less security, chance of failure, etc.  with time, as it proves itself, the arb bots will equilibrate the price but at a lower level b/c of the always present risk of failure of the SC.  the SC is not Bitcoin.  

"newness, less security, chance of failure, etc." is compensated with "increased utility"  so yes on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in is fiat terms and forever until SC crash.

another way to address your point is that a "theoretical" will never trump a "known".

we know MM is less secure than direct mining.  we don't know that a new untested "innovation" will exactly counter weigh the value of less security.
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