Topic: Gold: I smell a trap - page 49. (Read 90807 times)

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/23/shanghai-gold-exchange-lifts-margins-for-gold-forwards/

Because its time:



we're at the top of a trading cycle in silver and today we formed whats called a swing high along with a downturn of several long term indicators shown in the bottom of my picture.  notice how the RSI, MACD, and Money Flow Index have been weakening for almost 4 months.  we hit the top of the overbought trading cycle today and should enter a drawn out downphase that could last months.  SLV in one day has turned down and is just hovering above $40.  it should slice down thru $40 like a knife thru butter.

edit:  sorry, the Money Flow Index got chopped off the bottom of my chart.  you'll have to take my word for it.

I never called you silly or stupid. You made that up and then you continued with your own ad hominem attack. I don't know if you misunderstood or you were getting defensive over your position.

no don't go.  contribute but in a respectful way.  thats all i ask. 

the return will be waiting to buy assets at the bottom of the Depression for pennies on the dollar.  the wealth transfer at the end of the Depression of the 1930's was historic. 

And that's just the psychological impact. What if they can't fill his transfer request? You know Chavez isn't the only guy who wants to hold his gold in these chaotic markets.

I agree with everything you just said, miscreanity. That doesn't happen to me very often.

Shame I don't have any account which I can do put options because I did think of that.

But anyway, I'll be coming back to this thread when gold reaches $2000.

Hey type-A, deep breaths!

The greatest insult is to be ignored...


Great analysis. I don't think I can add anything to it.

What comes after the dollar hits a boost? It isn't worth it to have cash sitting around without a return. If there is a decent rate, what's being invested in to generate that return?

Ok... why?

Remember, the argument for silver being an industrial metal cuts both ways. A recovery rally sparking off would give momentum to silver while gold stagnates or even drops somewhat, not even considering the increasing physical shortages of the precious metals.

Silver moves in close relation with gold, so silver moving higher will provide headroom for gold to rise as well instead of acting as an anchor as it does now. The GSR would fall as well, increasing investment demand relative to gold. That double influence has propelled silver many times before and there's no reason to expect that to change.


If it were a link about the BoE, that argument would be relevant. Not all central banks are created equal, nor are they all subject to the same pressures. Developed nations have fiat issues to be concerned about and would have to sell their gold reserves to stabilize their respective currencies while developing nations are building capital and seek to preserve it by buying gold as a reserve.




Does DZZ drive the price of gold? How many clever speculators have been waiting for gold to fall, especially with the price rising almost exactly to a 423.6% Fibonacci projection from the May 1st to 5th decline? If gold retests its $1900 high, how many of them will panic and sell DZZ? When has it ever been good to ride with the masses, much less try to catch a falling knife (DZZ)?

The tail does not wag the dog. Here today, smoke tomorrow. Just cash in while you can - I'd sell most of my short positions now. That's the voice of experience: you don't forget losing a one week, seven-figure profit in a matter of hours.


When you're small, you have to follow and time the market. When you're a big fish, momentary timing isn't anywhere near as important as volume. Without sufficient counterparties, you can't shift your position (someone has to buy what you're selling or sell what you want to buy), not to mention the finesse required to make a gradual transition that doesn't knock prices around too much. But that isn't even the issue with Venezuela.

For Chavez, it isn't even a purchase or sale - it's a transfer from one custodian to another because the current one is suspected of mismanagement. This would be the same as moving your retirement fund from Bank of America to TD because you suspect an imminent failure of the former.

Such a vote of no-confidence could easily trigger additional moves from other large holders. Chavez's hourglass will have run out if/when it is dicovered that there is insufficient gold being held by the western facilities.

Stop thinking like small-fry and shift your perspective to that of a big fish. You'll accumulate more wealth and sleep better.


That's for sure - the clout of the biggest player around deciding to throw his weight before he's overpowered. Turning off the spigot is harder than it would seem, though. Expanding the base money supply is easy enough, but how do you withdraw those funds? It isn't like a credit limit that can be reduced, nor are there any counterparties to call debts in from.

If "they" have the power, why isn't gold still at $250/oz and silver back below $5/oz?

I'm looking for a breach of the $50 level in silver during September.

I really don't care about anyone else's trading; that's their business. It's the physical holding that concerns me. Whether there's deflation or inflation, instability means that physical gold will be in demand. When there's enough shortage that no gold is readily available and prices are out of range for the majority of people who haven't gotten it, those without will suffer. It doesn't matter if you think Bitcoin will rule the world - the world still runs on gold.


The same patterns arise on all scales, so technical analysis can apply to a minute chart or a decade chart. It depends on how short a time-frame you're talking about - minutes, hours days... I'd say yes. At the weekly level and beyond, technicals give way to fundamentals (then they can be used to confirm fundamentals). At least with precious metals.

You could always buy put options. It can be quick money while waiting for the fundamentals to reassert and carry gold higher. The banks don't even have to kill fiat, just revalue it against gold.


I think we can all agree that's better than gold any day! 

you know what?  i'm getting sick and tired of you calling contrary opinions (or me) to yours "silly" and "stupid".  how many DAYS did i have to educate your lame stupid ass in the Bitrebel thread about the Fed balance sheet about a month ago?

to get to your question.  i think M2 is ramping b/c everyone is cashing out of money mkt funds as they are forced to liquidate bonds from the debt downgrade and move USD's into regular bank accts.  this is why you're seeing Bank of NY Mellon charging for holding deposits.  because they can.  so its misleading to say the Fed is pumping new money into the markets.

if you read my earlier posts in this thread, yes the USD can skyrocket from here if enough debt liquidation is forced thru defaults or margin calls raising the demand for cash to pay off these bad debts.  you can look at this 2 ways; an overall decrease in the number of virtual plus real USD's floating around or as a scramble to grab the real USD's to pay off the bad virtual USD debts.  either way the USD rises.

the $DXY is at the bottom of its consolidation channel.  from here we should get a huge ramp.  talk about a panic from that happening...

Looks like it's going back to $1800 for now could go further but be warned that gold is sensitive to small irrelevant things like Bernanke announcing QE3 even though the federal reserve will create money regardless and the ponzi scheme wont end until it comes crashing down.

What appears to happen in markets like gold:

1. Genuine demand from investors and producers pushes price up.
2. Silly speculators see the price doing up and they start buying.
3. Price goes up too high. Speculative bubble.
4. Silly speculators now think the market is "overbought" (Thanks to themselves no doubt) and so they sell. Or they profit-take at certain points.
5. Price comes down.
6. Certain people get annoyed at this. Certain speculators lose out and others win. Investors get annoyed because the price isn't being stabilised by smart short to medium term speculation.

I think technical analysis is only good int he short term. Using it for medium or longer terms is not any good. Technical analysis says something is overbought when it's simply just increasing demand.

I was thinking about selling today but I knew it was too risky to make short term bets. I definitely just want to hold on to gold as central banks kill fiat and more and more people see the benefit to gold.

I agree if you want to short gold in the short term, if you are prepared to do more regular trades but shorting gold for the long term is stupid in my opinion.

Once again...

EIGHT boxes of salmon, halibut, and cod.  one of the most beautiful places on Earth.  if you all were here i'd give you each a vacuum pack.

thanks, buddy :-)

Lets go fishing together soon. EDIT: with golden rods and reels and hooks :-)

what you're witnessing is US dollar hegemony in play.  the power to turn on and OFF the spigot when the Fed wants.  the only way to play this is thinking like a criminal and picking out extremes in sentiment as well as chart parabolas.  there would be no greater satisfaction to Ben and the bankers then to smash gold to smithereens right here, right now.  and they have the power to do it.

i think the top is in.  the ferociousness of todays selloff on HIGH volume, not only on the futures and GLD but especially on the double inverse short DZZ is screaming "LOOK OUT". 

at this point i don't think silver clears the April high.  until it does, my opinion won't change.

there.  fixed that for ya.

I love this boat. This is so beautiful. Already +70 points on XAUUSD... with big leverage.

One of the largest transfers of physical gold in recent history doesn't matter? How can it not? 200 tons of gold is not a trivial matter. If its just a smokescreen, sure then I could agree. But there's no proof of that. If I were Chavez, I would be making the same demands, and I'd let everyone know it too.

looks like i have lotsa company in DZZ.  the volume today is now MORE than double its highest volume ever on 8/9/11.  which side of the boat do you want to be on?

If were forced to short on Gold if the Spot gets in the 1930-50 range usd it's looking pretty tasty

sure, why not?

i'm really saying none of that shit matters.  and since when has Chavez been a good market timer?