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Topic: Google trends and the bitcoin price (Read 3364 times)

legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 5069
June 10, 2014, 11:05:27 AM
#25
The graphs clearly say that the adoption between common people is growing everyday more.
I don't think it's a bubble, there are still too many people who have never heard about btc.

I'm sure hundreds of millions have heard about it. There's an enormous gulf between hearing about it and figuring out what it actually means though.

And up until now, in virtually every print article or online news article, they've been reminded of nothing but the bad news surrounding Bitcoin (e.g., Mt Gox implosion, China "ban", Charlie Shrem arrest, Silk Road, etc.).  So they know of it or have heard of it, but the articles put a "stay far away" negative spin around it.  Almost a condescending tone, as if to say 'you'd be a silly fool to buy some bitcoin based on all of this bad news.'

But imagine what will happen after the next cycle or so, when the press starts reversing previous bad news surrounding Bitcoin, and actually starts putting a positive spin on it instead?  Like quoting the PayPal CEO, or when PayPal/Amazon/Facebook/Apple adopts it, or a big name financial institution endorses it, ETF fund, etc.  

I mean look at this news, and yet hardly anyone in the U.S. even knows about this:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reeds-jewelers-now-accepting-bitcoin-120000388.html
http://www.reeds.com/about/Bitcoin.html

I can hear the articles of the future now, "...previously we were skeptical of Bitcoin, but with recent endorsements from X/Y/Z, we are suggesting that everyone should purchase and use some bitcoin."  When that happens, then public perception will change very rapidly.  

This sea-change happened with the public perception of the Internet, I should know as I'm old enough to remember the evolution.  Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3014
Welt Am Draht
June 10, 2014, 08:34:20 AM
#24
The graphs clearly say that the adoption between common people is growing everyday more.
I don't think it's a bubble, there are still too many people who have never heard about btc.

I'm sure hundreds of millions have heard about it. There's an enormous gulf between hearing about it and figuring out what it actually means though.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
June 10, 2014, 08:32:55 AM
#23
The graphs clearly say that the adoption between common people is growing everyday more.
I don't think it's a bubble, there are still too many people who have never heard about btc.
newbie
Activity: 47
Merit: 0
June 10, 2014, 06:57:42 AM
#22
Sorry to break it to you all... Bitcoin's popularity is only due to the lyrics of some obscure Norwegian song. Check it out... the search results correlate almost exactly.  Roll Eyes

http://www.google.com/trends/correlate/search?e=id%3ATSqR2MibDMZ&t=weekly&p=no

Jokes... but that's a pretty nifty tool... maybe one day it will be able to spot finer correlations :-)

I've found some other interesting links about using search data to predict prices:
http://crypt.la/2014/06/06/search-engine-queries-can-predict-bitcoin-prices/ (http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.0268)
https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator (http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/20xffg/bitcoin_correlator_see_how_price_of_bitcoin/)

full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
DigiByte Founder
April 09, 2013, 12:03:49 AM
#21
what are you guys seeing?
The most recent day or current day always shows a huge drop off in searches.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 501
April 08, 2013, 11:58:51 PM
#20
what are you guys seeing?
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
DigiByte Founder
April 08, 2013, 10:53:54 PM
#19
Yeah it is a glitch, I have seen it happen with several other searches over the past year.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
April 08, 2013, 10:51:35 PM
#18
This happened to me once before, and for someone else it showed an all time high at the same time. So yes, I believe it's a glitch, or some irrelevant reset feature...
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 501
April 08, 2013, 09:36:38 PM
#17
It's Monday and it looks like NOBODY is interested in searching for bitcoin anymore.  This is just a glitch, right?  

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/xk4kq

sr. member
Activity: 255
Merit: 250
April 06, 2013, 01:11:22 PM
#16
http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Seems the search volume may be beginning to peak as I suggested in my post. It could be that this is a consequence of the price fluctuation rather than a mark of a  media interest bubble though, it will be interesting to see what the price does over the next few weeks.

The previous correlation between price rise and search volume would suggest an average drop of $40 based on this change in search volume.

Thats based on a correlation analysis only using search volume drops, price sensitivity to rises in search volume seems much higher than search volume fall sensitivity. For example a 1% rise in volume implies a $15 price rise but a fall in volume of 1% implies only a $7.20 fall, another hint that this may be a bubble or perhaps a modeling error on my part after all correlation does not guarantee causation.

This decline is probably because of weekend fluctuations. Just wait until Monday hits the Google Trend charts.
full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
April 06, 2013, 11:43:07 AM
#15
http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Seems the search volume may be beginning to peak as I suggested in my post. It could be that this is a consequence of the price fluctuation rather than a mark of a  media interest bubble though, it will be interesting to see what the price does over the next few weeks.

The previous correlation between price rise and search volume would suggest an average drop of $40 based on this change in search volume.

Thats based on a correlation analysis only using search volume drops, price sensitivity to rises in search volume seems much higher than search volume fall sensitivity. For example a 1% rise in volume implies a $15 price rise but a fall in volume of 1% implies only a $7.20 fall, another hint that this may be a bubble or perhaps a modeling error on my part after all correlation does not guarantee causation.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 257
Trust No One
April 05, 2013, 03:00:53 AM
#14
I wouldn't compare bitcoins to James Bond  Grin
hero member
Activity: 931
Merit: 500
April 05, 2013, 02:04:18 AM
#13
for bitcoin:


for 比特币:
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
April 05, 2013, 01:56:45 AM
#12

"Bonds" is an English word, "bitcoin" is the same in all languages. You would need to also translate "bonds" into all possible languages to make it a fair comparison. Also, Google Trends measures new interest, people who already know about bonds/bitcoin won't be searching for that word.

In China bitcoin is also called 比特币. It seems the Chinese version is currently more popular in China:





http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%2C%20%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&geo=CN&cmpt=q

INB4 bond bubble. Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 955
Merit: 1002
April 05, 2013, 01:46:50 AM
#11

"Bonds" is an English word, "bitcoin" is the same in all languages. You would need to also translate "bonds" into all possible languages to make it a fair comparison. Also, Google Trends measures new interest, people who already know about bonds/bitcoin won't be searching for that word.

In China bitcoin is also called 比特币. It seems the Chinese version is currently more popular in China:





http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%2C%20%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&geo=CN&cmpt=q
legendary
Activity: 1867
Merit: 1023
April 05, 2013, 01:17:45 AM
#10
Can you try correlating it with a delay?

If google search trends measure interest in bitcoin - and it takes people a couple days to invest money - then there might be a stronger correlation if you add a 1-7 day delay.
hero member
Activity: 695
Merit: 500
April 04, 2013, 05:15:35 PM
#9
Bitcoin price is a good predictor of Google Trends.
full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
April 04, 2013, 12:16:08 PM
#8
Im not saying that there is  a correlation between bitcoin and bonds, just that it would seem very strange for such a vast asset set such as bonds to be dwarfed in search volume by one currency. This to me suggests bitcoins search volume is unusually high, as search volume seems correlated to btc price it seems reasonable to predict a correction.

 Smiley

I would suspect the google trends data would be more closely related to the derivative of the price. As more people find out about bitcoins, the price tends to rise. Bitcoins are inflating at something like 12 % per year, so if there are no new people joining in the price will naturally trend downward. These two effects couterbalance each other, so at a certain level of money coming into the system the price can stay level.

I did investigate this thinking that this might be the case however I couldn't find any correlation. I would suggest that most searches are by those who have already decided to invest but are trying to keep up with events and that those who search the most are likely to be major bitcoin fans.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
April 04, 2013, 12:00:57 PM
#7
Im not saying that there is  a correlation between bitcoin and bonds, just that it would seem very strange for such a vast asset set such as bonds to be dwarfed in search volume by one currency. This to me suggests bitcoins search volume is unusually high, as search volume seems correlated to btc price it seems reasonable to predict a correction.

 Smiley

I would suspect the google trends data would be more closely related to the derivative of the price. As more people find out about bitcoins, the price tends to rise. Bitcoins are inflating at something like 12 % per year, so if there are no new people joining in the price will naturally trend downward. These two effects couterbalance each other, so at a certain level of money coming into the system the price can stay level.
foo
sr. member
Activity: 409
Merit: 250
April 04, 2013, 11:54:59 AM
#6
Im not saying that there is  a correlation between bitcoin and bonds, just that it would seem very strange for such a vast asset set such as bonds to be dwarfed in search volume by one currency. This to me suggests bitcoins search volume is unusually high, as search volume seems correlated to btc price it seems reasonable to predict a correction.

 Smiley

"Bonds" is an English word, "bitcoin" is the same in all languages. You would need to also translate "bonds" into all possible languages to make it a fair comparison. Also, Google Trends measures new interest, people who already know about bonds/bitcoin won't be searching for that word.
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