Topic: Google trends and the bitcoin price - page 2. (Read 3364 times)
Some interesting data there giarc. Thanks for your contribution to the forums.
I think we still have a long way to go...
Im not saying that there is a correlation between bitcoin and bonds, just that it would seem very strange for such a vast asset set such as bonds to be dwarfed in search volume by one currency. This to me suggests bitcoins search volume is unusually high, as search volume seems correlated to btc price it seems reasonable to predict a correction.
not sure about the bond correlation but the search indicator and bit price is interesting correlation, one that will continue for until people know about bitcoin, so for another year maybe
I would like to discuss the level of search interest in bitcoin using data from google trends. Whilst I am a firm supporter of bitcoin and believe it will (with a little luck) go on to be a major player in the currency/commodities markets, it seems that the level of interest is in a bubble. This bubble in the level of bitcoin searches may or may not imply a bubble in the bitcoin price, it may imply a portion of the current price is due to a bubble factor whilst some of the gains are real growth.
Im sure few people would doubt that google searches are a strong indicator of the expected level of bitcoin price, this has been shown very clearly over the last few years, I have constructed a graph below to demonstrate the correlation.
If you look at historical search volumes and the ratio of these volumes to price it also seems that recently since late 2011 this ratio has been rising possibly showing the formation of a bubble.
Whether this is actually a bubble or a new paradigm is hard to tell, it could be that the old ratio was only correct for bitcoin when it was at a low market capitalization possibly due to the levels of demand from early investors and latecomers being at different levels.
One thing I would like to note though is that at the current time the number of google searches for "bitcoin" exceeds the number of searches for "bonds", it is also at 44% of the search volume that "USD" has which to me seems excessive at this time. Should a relationship between search volume and bitcoin price remain to be true then when this corrects the price should plummet to lower more stable levels.
This will be good for all long term holders.
I would be interested to hear some other opinions on this Look forward to your replies.
Im sure few people would doubt that google searches are a strong indicator of the expected level of bitcoin price, this has been shown very clearly over the last few years, I have constructed a graph below to demonstrate the correlation.
If you look at historical search volumes and the ratio of these volumes to price it also seems that recently since late 2011 this ratio has been rising possibly showing the formation of a bubble.
Whether this is actually a bubble or a new paradigm is hard to tell, it could be that the old ratio was only correct for bitcoin when it was at a low market capitalization possibly due to the levels of demand from early investors and latecomers being at different levels.
One thing I would like to note though is that at the current time the number of google searches for "bitcoin" exceeds the number of searches for "bonds", it is also at 44% of the search volume that "USD" has which to me seems excessive at this time. Should a relationship between search volume and bitcoin price remain to be true then when this corrects the price should plummet to lower more stable levels.
This will be good for all long term holders.
I would be interested to hear some other opinions on this
Look forward to your replies. Jump to: