Topic: Goomboo's Journal - page 35. (Read 281470 times)
Glad to have you back Goomboo, seems like this community needs some discipline so I hope you have some suggestions for us.
On Jan 20, Bitcoin was about 5-6 dollars. If you just simply held on to your bitcoins you would have made over 100% return.
You have missed the point. In the process of blindly holding regardless of trend direction you have surrendered over 200% unrealized profit to arrive at your 100% return figure - a figure which is fluctuating as we speak. As your 100% return is dwindling downwards, trend followers' unrealized profits are ticking upwards.
If you continue with your logic of simply holding, then you have absolutely no method of objectively entering and exiting trades. No matter where price goes, you will be entirely unprepared and you ultimately will suffer for it.
So let's say I started with 100 BTC on Jan 20th. Using your method how many bitcoins/USD would I have have now?
On Jan 20, Bitcoin was about 5-6 dollars. If you just simply held on to your bitcoins you would have made over 100% return.
You have missed the point. In the process of blindly holding regardless of trend direction you have surrendered over 200% unrealized profit to arrive at your 100% return figure - a figure which is fluctuating as we speak. As your 100% return is dwindling downwards, trend followers' unrealized profits are ticking upwards.
If you continue with your logic of simply holding, then you have absolutely no method of objectively entering and exiting trades. No matter where price goes, you will be entirely unprepared and you ultimately will suffer for it.
On Jan 20, Bitcoin was about 5-6 dollars. If you just simply held on to your bitcoins you would have made over 100% return.
Since this journal began on January 20th, the trading system has continued to be profitable.
If you had followed the system exactly, without fail:
- You should now be sitting on a 34% year-to-date profit.
- At worst, you were down 15% during the month of April, but during the months of May through August, you earned a 65% return.
- You should currently be short, sitting on an 8% unrealized profit.
- You should have outperformed nearly every global asset class in terms of both risk and return this year.
If you had followed the system exactly, without fail:
- You should now be sitting on a 34% year-to-date profit.
- At worst, you were down 15% during the month of April, but during the months of May through August, you earned a 65% return.
- You should currently be short, sitting on an 8% unrealized profit.
- You should have outperformed nearly every global asset class in terms of both risk and return this year.
Suggestion: Add a checkbox for enabling this feature to the controls panel. Off by default seems reasonable.
This service will see very little development over the next few months, as I'm working on launching a new project. The current feature request list mainly centers around the chart, and this item is on the list, but don't get your hopes up too soon
I think most visitors can handle some EMAs without too much confusion. 
Nice. I did wonder if that was what those lines were.
Suggestion: Add a checkbox for enabling this feature to the controls panel. Off by default seems reasonable.
Suggestion: Add a checkbox for enabling this feature to the controls panel. Off by default seems reasonable.
The 10/21 EMAs are now plotted on bitcoin.clarkmoody.com, by the way.
Goomboo, can I ask what software you are using? I would like to try and run some figures of my own.
I use:
-Ninjatrader - backtesting / optimizing
-Excel - taking Ninjatrader's output and applying formatting to "pretty" it up
Steps I followed:
1. Download Ninjatrader and learn how to import data and create custom instruments
2. Download the data from www.bitcoincharts.com and modify it in Excel such that it can imported (they have some mistakes where opens are greater than highs, etc.)
3. Import the data into Ninjatrader
4. Create a strategy
5. Backtest and optimize the strategy
6. Export the data to excel
7. Put it in a pivot table, color the range, format it
8. Put it in a picture and upload it
For anyone who is interested in stock, futures, forex, or commodities trading, I highly recommend Ninjatrader - it is a solid, solid platform.
I downloaded the NinjaTrader and MtGox historical data from bitcoinchart but when i try to import historical data to ninjatrader gives me an error message, anyone had been able to plot data and backtest with bitcoins on ninjatrader, if so please give a help on how to download a proper historical data from bitcoincharts to ninjatrader.
Thanks for all the great info!
I'd like to thank everyone for participating for the past two months throughout this journal. My intention has been to help individuals approach the markets in a systematic, rational, and tested way. Also, I have tried to "throw the ball into your court" by telling you how it is: you will more than likely fail if you don't own up to your decisions by testing, scrutinizing, and attempting to disprove your edge. My hope for you is that you take responsibility and put in the necessary time and effort to protect the money you have worked hard to earn.
I do not have time to continue posting on a message board. I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
I do not have time to continue posting on a message board. I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
TRANSLATION:
"I've made a tidy profit off all you heathens, and now I can take a loooooooooong vacation on a tropical isle. SMELL YA LATER!"
I'm just messin' with ya, ya silly Christian guy. But honestly, thanks for the info; I actually learned quite a bit from what you've shared. 
I'd like to thank everyone for participating for the past two months throughout this journal. My intention has been to help individuals approach the markets in a systematic, rational, and tested way. Also, I have tried to "throw the ball into your court" by telling you how it is: you will more than likely fail if you don't own up to your decisions by testing, scrutinizing, and attempting to disprove your edge. My hope for you is that you take responsibility and put in the necessary time and effort to protect the money you have worked hard to earn.
I do not have time to continue posting on a message board. I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
I do not have time to continue posting on a message board. I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
sad to see you go,
consider visiting us from time to time and post some posts in other threads, we welcome your input on any subject.
...
are you going to sell all your bitcoins?
I'd like to thank everyone for participating for the past two months throughout this journal. My intention has been to help individuals approach the markets in a systematic, rational, and tested way. Also, I have tried to "throw the ball into your court" by telling you how it is: you will more than likely fail if you don't own up to your decisions by testing, scrutinizing, and attempting to disprove your edge. My hope for you is that you take responsibility and put in the necessary time and effort to protect the money you have worked hard to earn.
I do not have time to continue posting on a message board. I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
I do not have time to continue posting on a message board. I wish you all the best in your trading endeavors.
I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.
Done.Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chrome-browser-extension-mtgox-trading-bot-67591
Goomboo, I have sent you a bit of coin in appreciation of this thread
Keep up the good work
Keep up the good work
I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too
While you've been mulling it over... I should have something for you to try by tomorrow.I will start a separate topic in the Trading forum, to not spoil Goomboo's Journal anymore.
Just want to test it a bit more overnight.
It's an extension for Chrome browser - trivial to install / not so complex to setup / very easy to use.
And relatively easy to review - just a few KB of JS code, with some ajax stuff.
I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.
cool
look forward to checking it out, muchas gracias I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too
While you've been mulling it over... I should have something for you to try by tomorrow.I will start a separate topic in the Trading forum, after I test it a bit more overnight.
Extension for Chrome browser - trivial to install / not so complex to setup / very easy to use.
And relatively easy to review - just a few KB of JS code, with some ajax stuff.
I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.
This sounds great. +1
I'd probably need a while to mull it all over, I'm sure that they'd be plenty of others interested in this too
While you've been mulling it over... I should have something for you to try by tomorrow.I will start a separate topic in the Trading forum, to not spoil Goomboo's Journal anymore.
Just want to test it a bit more overnight.
It's an extension for Chrome browser - trivial to install / not so complex to setup / very easy to use.
And relatively easy to review - just a few KB of JS code, with some ajax stuff.
I had already had my bot, quite more advanced, but since I was so bored today and I like coding Chrome extensions... I made it for you
Anyway, will let you know soon - stay tuned.
Goomboo is this roughly the chart that you're using & did you close out your short position (at a profit from about $5.80 to $4.80) & then go long at the start of this month?
How much does this strategy rely upon Bitcoin's continued extremely high volatility?
I expect the volatility to decrease as the market becomes more mature (more actors, more based on the actual value of bitcoin, less hacks, more reliable bitcoin companies). And at some point the bitcoin technology might stabilize (currently fpga or ASIC could shake things up).
As volatility decreases, there were be more sideways action, and the fees will eat up more or all of your profits.
I expect the volatility to decrease as the market becomes more mature (more actors, more based on the actual value of bitcoin, less hacks, more reliable bitcoin companies). And at some point the bitcoin technology might stabilize (currently fpga or ASIC could shake things up).
As volatility decreases, there were be more sideways action, and the fees will eat up more or all of your profits.
I have also wondered about this. However you have to remember that we are still very early on in the game. Not all the bitcoins have been mined yet, and it is still a long way from mainstream acceptance. I believe this will keep it in the realm of speculators for a while to come. How long is a while? No idea. But I am going to reassess my investment on a 12 monthly basis - can't see much long term stability developing in that time frame.
approximatelly in 2140 all coins will have be mined. i doubt anyone of us will take part in this moment
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