Topic: Goomboo's Journal - page 49. (Read 281461 times)

I tried to download but it says I need Windows 7 or whatever version they are at now.  I had to use a Windows computer for a presentation and had no idea what I was looking at.  I think I will stick with R for backtesting.  It is open-source and is a powerful statistical tool.  I don't have to worry about faulty statistical methods in R.  There is even a package that allows trading through Interactive Brokers.

Because only Hedge funds get the kind of access we get to GOX, the old system is no more less manipulated, just more players and a shiner veneer of legitimacy.

Totally uninformed guess here: You have to give your money to someone. We give money to the exchanges. Maybe the traditional exchanges don't want that hassle?

Im trying to sign up but it says I need a broker... Can I not just try this out? I dont have a broker. 

Also less important / off topic: why do people need brokers?  Why cant they just connect to the exchange and make trades like we all do to Gox?

I have to agree the insight provided in this thread has been invaluable. Cheers Goomboo, and I hope you continue to frequent this thread 

Goomboo, thanks for responding to me in such detail, I greatly appreciate it. I really hope you keep visiting this thread for a long time to come...I've mentioned it before but I cannot tell you how refreshing it is to have you around here, keep it up! Fingers crossed,XX, I am hoping to send you a donation in the future to show my appreciation in a more tangible/digital way.

Sticking to the topic of moving average crossovers, what about the 10,21 weekly moving average crossovers I'm seeing with simple and weighted moving averages?  At what point does that factor into your trading?  You abandoned the hourly in favor of the daily.  Is it just a matter of trading frequency preference?  Is there ever a reason to consider the weekly moving average, or does following the smaller term trends keep you on the correct side of the longer term trends when they move big?  Bitcoin is a very volatile market, and it can slip a few dimes or even dollars before you can change your position.

Donation sent. Thanks for sharing your trading philosophy in this Forum.

It's a breath of fresh air.

Yes - Google how to import data into NinjaTrader and you can find out how to do it.  I haven't done it and I don't plan on doing it for a long time because I don't believe that BTC data is representative of the past.  Any trend-following strategy will be radically skewed by a massive bubble.

thanks for the info Goomboo. is it possible to get bitcoins historical data into ninjatrader?

Now that the market is a bit in the doldrums, a good time to assess our emotional abilities to trade.

..sounds pretty scary

When it comes to trading, many people simply can't follow through with the plan.  They can spend hours carefully and meticulously studying the past, developing a system, and working through all of the contingencies, but when money is actually at risk, they freeze or allow emotion to influence their decisions.

Here is the problem with emotions: you can't backtest it.  When you are testing through historical data, you simply can't replicate the feeling of watching your unrealized PNL fluctuate.  If you begin acting on these painful and euphoric emotions in the trading day, then you are in uncharted territory and your plan / work are worthless.  I call this seat-of-the-pants or cowboy trading.  Sure you can feel great at the end of the day for making spur of the moment decisions and acting on them, but ultimately you are chasing an emotion, not profit.

Here's the sad reality of why people will eventually stop trading a system and this thread will dwindle into inactivity - trading is boring.  It is work.  Not only is it work, it is very, very hard work.  Trading is a zero-sum game in the market, but emotionally, it is a negative sum game.  Trading psychological studies have shown that traders typically internalize their negative trades much more than their positive trades.  In a business in which you can be radically profitable with a 30% success rate (or lower), this makes for a difficult life.  The whole goal of research and system based trading is to minimize your ability to make emotional decisions and focus more on what the market actually does.

Hoping for a decent trend again to test the 10/21 EMAs.

Not for making a profit per say, more to instill trading discipline on myself.

Hope not :p

I'm short and +7% unrealized PNL.

Honestly, it's pretty self-motivated.  It helps me stay disciplined to my trading strategy in the BTC market which ultimately helps me be a more profitable trader.  I don't give much weight to the idea of momentum - if anyone were seriously reading this thread, they wouldn't blindly trust me but would rather systematically test a trading concept that they can own and follow.  I'm less tempted to toy around and lose money in an undisciplined manner when I have several people watching me make decisions and risking their capital as well.

Additionally, openly discussing risk management, trading systems, and how to logically enter and exit the markets has improved my trading in other markets.  I'm human just like most of the other traders on here - I make mistakes, I struggle with following a plan, discipline, etc.


Here's my thought on lessening the effectiveness of my strategy:
-I don't believe in this
-I'd wager that there were probably 10-15 traders who took my signal right at the beginning and instantly lost money
-After this loss, probably 5 traders took the signal and lost again
-After this loss, probably 3 traders took it and lost again
-And this recent trade, maybe 1-2 of those traders took the signal and now are sitting on a trade which should have them sitting at a fresh unrealized profit

You see?  People just can't stick with the plan - it makes so much sense on paper but when capital is actually at risk, discipline falters and seat-of-the-pants decisions are made.

Here's one a great quote from the Turtle Trading system in one of my earlier posts:

Zup guys? Are things settling down?

Yes,

It is using NinjaTrader - an excellent automated and discretionary trading platform.

Basically you program a strategy (or use their easy-coding utility) and backtest the strategy on historical data.

If you're interested in testing your ideas and automated trading, I highly recommend you learn about the platform.

www.ninjatrader.com

Feel free to ask me any questions about it if you're interested.

This is also very relevant to my interests.

stability