Topic: Goomboo's Journal - page 45. (Read 281461 times)
Those who took the last signal should be sitting on a 9% unrealized profit right now.
Crossover again 
Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.
Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
Lol nice :p
Crossover again Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.
Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
nice
Crossover again Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.
Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
lol. nice one, i agree
Crossover again Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.
Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC
As a follow-up on my previous post:
This is where risk-management really comes into play. If you're risking more than 1-3% of your account equity on a trade, a sideways market can really clobber you.
If you're using a fixed-fractional money-management methodology, sideways markets do give you an opportunity to use leverage and trade with some size though.
Some of my best trades have come from sideways markets - I was risking 1% per trade and lost 10-11 trades in a row, but by sticking with the trading plan, I had a fairly large position when the trend began.
This is where risk-management really comes into play. If you're risking more than 1-3% of your account equity on a trade, a sideways market can really clobber you.
If you're using a fixed-fractional money-management methodology, sideways markets do give you an opportunity to use leverage and trade with some size though.
Some of my best trades have come from sideways markets - I was risking 1% per trade and lost 10-11 trades in a row, but by sticking with the trading plan, I had a fairly large position when the trend began.
Ok, so Goomboo... how are you interpreting these charts... do you think the fuzziness of the EMA 10/21 has to do with the large number of people that might be trading on them now?
The last trade I lost a bit just because buy and sell were within the MT. Gox commission spread.
When the indicators are this weak, do you still follow them? Seems that the indicators are kind of bouncing around a flat trend for the time being.
The last trade I lost a bit just because buy and sell were within the MT. Gox commission spread.
When the indicators are this weak, do you still follow them? Seems that the indicators are kind of bouncing around a flat trend for the time being.
I think the fuzziness is due to the fact that markets tend to move in trading ranges around 70% of the time and trend 30% of the time. The chop is where the discipline of a system trader is required. I try and follow the system, regardless of how I feel about the strength of it.
If you look back over the backtest of this system on the EURUSD, at one time the system lost 9 trades in a row, but by following it, eventually you would have earned a good profit.
If this was being influenced by lots of people, they would have to be influencing the past 10-21 candles calculating ahead of time what the averages would be (highly unlikely).
Ok, so Goomboo... how are you interpreting these charts... do you think the fuzziness of the EMA 10/21 has to do with the large number of people that might be trading on them now?
The last trade I lost a bit just because buy and sell were within the MT. Gox commission spread.
When the indicators are this weak, do you still follow them? Seems that the indicators are kind of bouncing around a flat trend for the time being.
The last trade I lost a bit just because buy and sell were within the MT. Gox commission spread.
When the indicators are this weak, do you still follow them? Seems that the indicators are kind of bouncing around a flat trend for the time being.
That's what I was looking at...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gEMAzm1g21za2gEMAzm2g10zxzv
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gEMAzm1g21za2gEMAzm2g10zxzv
Crossover now. Short --> Long.
many thanks & igualmente 
& igualmente
Thank you for contributing to the forum.
I wish you the best in your trading!
I wish you the best in your trading!
the € doesn't enjoy 25% daily swings against the $, so cheap at the price I'd say for a punt
Right, but it does enjoy the liquidity and leverage where you can successfully do that for your account (not something I'd recommend).
with enough leverage & enormous margin deposit one could I guess potentially get 25% daily returns on €/$ (or more likely 100% wipe outs), but this though is so different & harder for the average Joe to initiate as to be not even worth mentioning in this context, where as anyone with a few $ they don't mind risking can do this now relatively easily & basically anonymously via BTC
edit: someone buys $100 worth of BTC at Gox, they pay $0.55 fees, BTC move up or down 25% or more faster than the € can say TU, so how is that few cents going to matter even when it's no leverage 1:1, & @ 10:1 forget it
$100,000 last November in to BTC & Gox taxes you $270
hibernate for the winter
= win
try matching that return with €/$ however low the fees, high liquidity, leverage, etc
OK if you have B$ to invest but then why even bother to look at such a small cap as BTC where that would be unfeasible & anyway here the % returns potentially pwn & you can do it with your own $ rather than needing to manage a fund
hibernate for the winter
= win
try matching that return with €/$ however low the fees, high liquidity, leverage, etc
OK if you have B$ to invest but then why even bother to look at such a small cap as BTC where that would be unfeasible & anyway here the % returns potentially pwn & you can do it with your own $ rather than needing to manage a fund
the € doesn't enjoy 25% daily swings against the $, so cheap at the price I'd say for a punt
Right, but it does enjoy the liquidity and leverage where you can successfully do that for your account (not something I'd recommend).
the € doesn't enjoy 25% daily swings against the $*, so cheap at the price I'd say for a punt
* edit: at least not as yet
* edit: at least not as yet
I'm a trend follower, in this mornings case the extra indicators were added confidence but wouldn't necessarily dictated my action. Thanks for this thread by the way, it's good to have an extremely experienced person around to recommend the right books. I only wish I had the discipline to follow your approach and back test my strategy which I haven't even defined yet. But then again, that's the beauty of bitcoin, with only .65% commission at Gox, I have thousands of trades experience which I wouldn't have anywhere else along with the fact I can jump in and out. Were I paying 10$ a trade, along with account fee's I suspect I would be far more strict in my approach.
Thanks for participation in the thread!
.65% is actually a massive commission. In the currency markets, the EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3217. A .65% commission on it would be .0085 or 85 pips. The commission I pay on EURUSD is about 1.1 pips. Mt. Gox is 77 times more expensive to trade than the typical currency markets.
$100,000 trade on Mt. Gox
-> $100,000 * .0065 = $650 commission
$100,000 trade on EURUSD
-> $100,000 * .00011 = $11 commission
The only way to be profitable in short-term trading in the BTC market is volatility. If volatility dries up, commission will crush trading.
0.27% actually
Okay - still a $270 commission. That is insane.
For the retail comparison, that's still 27 times a typical commission.
For an institutional comparison: trading with a voice broker like ICAP, you typically pay a $80 commission, but it's on instruments where the point value is $800.
I'm a trend follower, in this mornings case the extra indicators were added confidence but wouldn't necessarily dictated my action. Thanks for this thread by the way, it's good to have an extremely experienced person around to recommend the right books. I only wish I had the discipline to follow your approach and back test my strategy which I haven't even defined yet. But then again, that's the beauty of bitcoin, with only .65% commission at Gox, I have thousands of trades experience which I wouldn't have anywhere else along with the fact I can jump in and out. Were I paying 10$ a trade, along with account fee's I suspect I would be far more strict in my approach.
Thanks for participation in the thread!
.65% is actually a massive commission. In the currency markets, the EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3217. A .65% commission on it would be .0085 or 85 pips. The commission I pay on EURUSD is about 1.1 pips. Mt. Gox is 77 times more expensive to trade than the typical currency markets.
$100,000 trade on Mt. Gox
-> $100,000 * .0065 = $650 commission
$100,000 trade on EURUSD
-> $100,000 * .00011 = $11 commission
The only way to be profitable in short-term trading in the BTC market is volatility. If volatility dries up, commission will crush trading.
0.27% actually
& even the € doesn't enjoy 25% daily swings against the $, so cheap at the price I'd say for a punt
i have a basic and probably dumb question. this exponential EMA average, how are the weights? how is this decay function defined and does it also have parameters additionally to the time-window?
A typical EMA weights the most recent prices more than the older prices. They can be based on pretty much any form of data (open, close, high, low, volume, other indicators, etc.). You can also shift them forward or backwards so that you project them into the future or lag them even more. You can do lots with them, but I prefer to keep it simple.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_moving_average#Exponential_moving_average
I'm a trend follower, in this mornings case the extra indicators were added confidence but wouldn't necessarily dictated my action. Thanks for this thread by the way, it's good to have an extremely experienced person around to recommend the right books. I only wish I had the discipline to follow your approach and back test my strategy which I haven't even defined yet. But then again, that's the beauty of bitcoin, with only .65% commission at Gox, I have thousands of trades experience which I wouldn't have anywhere else along with the fact I can jump in and out. Were I paying 10$ a trade, along with account fee's I suspect I would be far more strict in my approach.
Thanks for participation in the thread!
.65% is actually a massive commission. In the currency markets, the EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3217. A .65% commission on it would be .0085 or 85 pips. The commission I pay on EURUSD is about 1.1 pips. Mt. Gox is 77 times more expensive to trade than the typical currency markets.
$100,000 trade on Mt. Gox
-> $100,000 * .0065 = $650 commission
$100,000 trade on EURUSD
-> $100,000 * .00011 = $11 commission
The only way to be profitable in short-term trading in the BTC market is volatility. If volatility dries up, commission will crush trading.
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