Topic: gpu bubble well and truly bursting - page 17. (Read 23728 times)

That maybe true but why would you continue to mine at a loss then? If it costs me more to mine a coin than it does to buy it outright, again why is mining the better option? I don't know about you but if it cost me $50 to mine a single coin but I could buy the same coin for $40, I would just shut the miner off and buy.

That will be up to people if they want to sell at loss or not, to sell at loss means less than what miner mines for. Its like gold, 10 people working on mines, if the gold price crashes 50% then will be only 5 people working or probably nobody anymore.

Buying a rig at prices that are at least 1.5x what they were 3-4 months ago is insane. You can't just base the price off of MSRP either, as I was buying GPUs for $20-$30 less than MSRP before the shortage and resulting run-up in hardware price.

No, one does not know what will happen with future price, but as I said buying a rig also entails the same speculation that buying coins outright does, as in both scenarios you are relying on a recovery to break even or profit.

As far as a hedge and switching to other coins, if ETH drops to sub $50 level for any length of time, do you not think other people have also figured out to move to other coins? There will be no profitable GPU coin to mine for quite sometime as the space is saturated with hash-rate already. The slow bleed down is prolonging the end result, but no matter what happens mining profits will be on the decline for some time to come.

Plus if ETH does drop to $50 what I said above would make even more sense as he could buy 40 coins for the same money that he is planning to spend for a rig, which would takeover 800 days to mine at current difficulty. The days of easy mining are over, the best those of us with paid off rigs can hope for is a few more months of some profits before the long lull.

Also relying on selling off the hardware as an escape is not a good idea either, as I think we will be seeing a flood of used gear on the market in the next couple of months.

No one knows how the BTC BIP 148 controversy will play out. IMO, now is not the time to be buying or selling coins until that has played out. ETH was trading at less than $50 just three months ago and there is no reason it couldn't go back to that level, especially since no one knows how the planned forks will play out. If you think you can catch a falling knife, then go ahead and invest directly in ETH. The difference is by investing directly you are risking your investment loses value and you are left holding the bag. A mining rig is and always has been a hedge, as it has a value other than mining and can always be used to create value by mining other coins.

You are off to the asylum if you proceed with that rig.

This whole thing is a speculative, cyclic, investment market. The basics of investing is buy low sell high. Take a look a the long term trend of the entire crypto market cap and draw your own conclusions about;

1: likely bottom
2: likely cycle period

ie; it would be incredibly unlikely to bottom at $10bn or $65bn (current). The answer is somewhere inbetween and the few who guess right stand to make a lot of money.

Cancel the order and use the money to buy ETH directly during the dip. Ideally look to get in closer to $100 or even a bit less if it falls some more before you get your funds from your preorder refunded.

Buying cards right now to mine ETH in the hopes the price returns to $300+ is foolish, as not only are you are hoping for the same gains that simply buying the coins outright would provide, but since difficulty is so much higher now than during the initial run-up you will mine less coins to boot.

A $2000 investment in ETH at $100 each would give you 20 coins. Mining with a $2000 rig would take over 400 days to obtain those same 20 coins. Even buying ETH at $150 you would get close to 14 coins, which would take 280 days to mine. Keep in mind these figures assume difficulty does not rise which is foolish and the actual time-frames would probably be closer to double to what I listed in reality.

No one will have a better picture of where the market and mining profitability is going until after the BTC Bip 148 controversy plays out over the next month. Until then, things are going to be very volatile and tend to get worse before they can get better. Now is not the time to be expanding as ROI times will continue to increase. If you already have a rig, now is the time to accumulate coins until the market recovers.

The ETH dev meeting on Friday confirmed they have no plans to adjust the difficulty bomb and block times before the Metropolis POW/POS hybrid release due sometime before November. This means ETH will become unprofitable to mine for most by the end of August as the difficulty re-targets exponentially due to the ICE AGE and block times get longer. It may also become unprofitable to mine sooner if the price keeps dropping.

OK guys, I've been following this thread and I realized I could really use some ADVICE!

I'm pretty new to the mining scene, meaning that I just got into it. I started ordering my first GPU's about 3 weeks ago when ETH was around $350 but since then things have really changed...

Right now I'm mining with 5 nvidia GPUs  2x 1070, 2x1060 6gb and 1x 1060 3gb. I didn't overpay for these cards, actually I got a pretty good deal on them. Currently I'm mining ETH with ~130MH/s but after reading this topic it's clear to me that maybe I should switch, although it's not clear to me to what and why.... I check whattomine.com regularly but ETH is almost among the most profitable coins to mine, and even if it's not, the others are maybe about 5% more profitable.

Anyway, the thing is that I still have some GPU's that I pre-ordered (at a normal price of $320-$350) and I'm still waiting for them ( 5x RX580 8Gb) but after reading this thread I'm starting to have my doubts and thinking about cancelling these orders...
The most important thing to me right now (since I just got into the game) would be to ROI my GPU's as soon as possible. Ideally I should cancel my order for the 5 RX580's that I pre-ordered and should arrive in the next 2-3 weeks, and wait 'til august to see what happens to bitcoin and to the whole crypto market. However this also means another 3-4 weeks of waiting if I decide to re-place those orders again in august. On the other hand I see people here not recommending to buy AMD GPU's at all, since ETH mining will not be profitable very soon...
(By the way, returning those orders is NOT an options since they were ordered internationally and would imply a lot of costs)

So right now my mind is racing and I'm full of doubts if I should invest in another rig with RX580 or maybe in something else. I do have a limited buget for another rig, around $2000

Yes that makes sense for the purpose of efficiency and max profit. I don't know why people are arguing over this.

If you like to mine HUSH but it produces 50% less coins than mining ETH. Then mine ETH and sell ETH to buy HUSH.

I hold BTC but mine ETH instead because with power efficency I can mine about 4x as much BTC thru GPU altcoin mining than mining BTC directly. Selling my GPUs and buying BTC ASICs to mine BTC directly but only get 25% of it makes no sense.

There are already enough miners "securing the network" for every coin out there.

You are wrong, plain. This was discussed by Adam Smith and David Ricardo about 3 centuries ago and established as fact. If you want to throw away money it's fine, but it doesn't make any sense.

What do you like more, 2 BTC or 3 BTC? If the latter, mine the most profitable and trade it for BTC instantly. For the rest of us it's best if all people where like you so we can mine for larger rewards, so even writing to you these people are helping you. I'll call you Mr. 2BTC otherwise.

What you are implying is balance, if you mine whatever pays most and buy the coins which are not or might be valuable then you are the one pumping the coin he is mining which in turn is almost the same bloody thing, period.

that is the only type of miner, holding your coins is just market speculation. Why not just mine whatever pays most at the moment and buy other coins?

In the history of many coins there has always been a time where the fine differences between different cards and different ROI scenarios has discourage people from mining. Those that mined with what they had or could buy on the market  and held have forgotten that they may have paid a premium at the time for a GPU card because the coins are worth so much more now.

Unless you are the mine and sell right away type of miner, don't worry too much about the fine nuances of ROI because everything could (and probably will) look very different in 5 - 10 years time. And worst case, you have some nice GPU cards to sell gamers and some good experience.

Well, It looks like they are not as dumb as I thought. However I have foreseen this move.

The discussion at the latest dev meeting was reducing the mining reward to around 3 ETH at the same time they fix the difficulty bomb with the Metropolis hard fork release due before November 6th of this year. The reasoning for the reward reduction is it will keep the the rewards per second roughly the same as they are now once the difficulty and block times are scaled back in the Metropolis release. ETH will NOT be switching to POS at that time. They will introduce a hybrid POW/POS model first and depending on how that goes, the switch to POS will be in a second hard fork release sometime next year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRQg_lHEKl4&t=2520s

Anyway Ethereum mining will totally stop with the PoS transition in a few months, so that will not change a lot of things I think. Miners should not wait too much to sell their rigs if they want to not end up having useless AMD GPUs just good to mine Ethereum.

Not only that they will lower block reward to 2.5 eth or 3eth per block, thats "50%" decrease I didnt know that.

We will see what happens I suppose =)

Also, I stand corrected, the 9 cents is at my home & I've moved most of my mining to my company warehouse (only 2 miners at home now). It's just over 7.5 cents there on average -- even better =)

The ICE AGE has been going on since it was introduced in September of last year.  As explained at the last ETH developer meeting, block times will be 22 seconds at the end of July, 27 seconds by the end of August and 35 seconds by the end of September.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRQg_lHEKl4&feature=youtu.be&t=2956

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/guides/what-is-the-ethereum-ice-age/

By the end of August, ETH will be unprofitable for most people to mine and even sooner if the price continues to drop. By then the BTC 148 controversy should have played out and miners will have a better indication where the market is headed.

ETH ice age 30 seconds coming and you may say i dont mine eth see that is the problem, eth profitability drops all other coins drop, maybe you will turn off sooner than you think, yes your 9 cents is saving you at moment hehe