Topic: Great New Crashcorrection (fulfilled) - page 8. (Read 14831 times)

At some point, the general consensus becomes "this thing is going up way too fast. it's going to crash".

I think we've been there for a few days.

But then, it keeps going up... Maybe it's disbelief that the super obvious thing ("we're going to crash!") could be so obvious, and yet it still hasn't crashed... this creates doubt, so we wait a little longer, unwilling to take the plunge of cashing out. Maybe we do sell a few coins, but not all of them...

At some point (I think we are there this weekend) the only people buying are the crazy people (who trust their BTC/cash to these somewhat shady exchanges) while the more sober of us sit out and watch bitcoinity in disbelief. A lot of these people probably sold already, and are buying back in at a loss, because they're crazy.

BTC is now at $4B market cap. These tiny exchanges did not get $2B in cash deposits in the last few weeks. It's just a small group of crazy traders driving this thing up, and once enough of them panic, this thing is going down hard.

I wish we could get a meme going, like "the moon is $400!", so we could make this crash happen sooner and not cause as much damage as the last one.

But yeah, it's going to crash. Very soon.

The reason it matters should be fairly obvious. Say there is an exchange with 5% of the volume of Gox. The price will still be roughly the same! Simply because of arbitrage with other exchanges. In Bitcoin world, a spread of 8-12% might not be uncommon, but it's not like they're wildly running in opposite directions.

So a price of $375 on an exchange with a tiny amount of volume compared to April is not a bad sign if, say, there is another exchange with a more reasonable amount of volume (i.e. all gox's volume are belong to China) compared to April and the same or similar price.

In order to accurately judge volume over time against the price, in a situation such as this where exchange volume has shifted quite significantly since April, we'd have to see combined volume, virtually regardless of which exchange's price we were using.

So we might look at Gox volume now vs april, and we look at BTCchina and BitStamp volume now vs. April. Now we can see why there is a problem with just looking at the volume of one exchange over such a long time period!  Then we look at all the other exchanges too. Then the fucking permabear peanut gallery starts piping in "But China has 0% trading so their volume is fake, and therefore their price is fake, and chinese fake all their statistics, and BTCChina doesn't even exist, and blah blah blah, and blah blah blah."

Oh, peanut gallery.

EDIT: Oh, and since I opened the Volume can of worms - The combined volume chart @ Bitcoinity covers all known online exchanges - but there is also the possibility that a lot of the "big money" that has been entering Bitcoin has been doing so via other avenues. One could say that this would eventually be reflected in the major exchanges, but not necessarily. Big investors might find the resources to buy directly from miners ('clean coin' concerns) and this volume might not find its way to the exchanges. Then the miners would have less to sell to the exchanges, lowering supply, and supply and demand, blah blah blah. OTOH, this might be insignificant. But don't dismiss either high or low volume without considering all possibilities.

There have been small corrections.

What China is doing right now is the first thing I have seen that looks parabolic. But the other exchanges are not following.

still doesn't explain how it can grow that big, that fast.. without being "corrected." a 400% return on investment in 2-3 weeks is quite.. a lot.

Nice! i like that pera, well done

Limited supply with growing demand and increasing distrust of fiat = price keeps rising. There is nothing mysterious or unsustainable about this.

Bitcoin is unique, there has never been anything like it before. If it ends up becoming a major economic power then the insane rewards we are earning right now is our reward for helping to make it happen.

bitcoinity ftw!

There can certainly be a pullback. 10-15% or so would actually be healthy.

But with China going ballastic and with the media attention of the run up, I would suspect that a lot of fresh $$$ will come into the USD exchanges on Tuesday (Monday is a holiday).

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin%20bubble&date=today%2012-m&cmpt=q

(note that we are in the begging of this month)

the people who are saying that a huge crash isn't likely to occur (on the scale of last april, at least).. seem to have a plausible explanation. but then again, how can anything sustain this amount of growth without "growing pains"? coins have nearly quadrupled in a 2-3 week span.. that is nuts!

What are you people talking about?



 

Why does it have to be on the "exchanges"?  Why can't it sit in your wallet?

And the Chinese did not start to become major buyers of Holland's tulips.

Oh noes, I sold more (voluntarily this time) and guess what. Price will boom now! Up to the skies!

Why economists fail on understanding bitcoin.
history was always with a inflationary currency.
This one is a deflationary one that's why all stats will fail here ,, dollar is inflationary since the beginning  it was baked by a Limited supply of gold but at that time nobody knew how much this was precisely! and even now we don't know the amount of ounces gold in
planet earth! 
But,,, with bitcoin it will be 21.000.000 so , its a known constant! we are currently at 11925350 btc so that's also known... and that's why it does what it does.
its the first time in history that we know the total of supply available on forehand to a currency system.
 

I lol'd. For a few minutes actually. Just, the absurdity of it--when I was expecting another "SERIOUS BTC CHART WITH LINES AND DATA" I got--that.

Well done.

To "contribute" to the thread: I don't know if we're going to crash, but I'm glad I bought in.

Well, while I won't be surprised at all if bitcoin crashes soon - I don't feel we can compare that tulip bubble to the current bitcoin bubble, should it prove to be one.

Bitcoin has the innovation to change the world. It has many uses, speculation, store of value, medium of exchange, etc. Tulips were pure speculative hype and can't even be stored over time. Sure, this may be speculative hype but at least in theory it's backed by something with real promise. I hope to see a world where bitcoin overtakes paypal and others etc - which is 100% possible. What did the people buying those tulips think? Hopefully the speculative pressure will push up the price so they cna cahs out before the inevitable crash? Or just didn't think about it and wanted on the crazy gains train? That's my bet.

If anything, I'd say we might be looking at a dot com type bubble, and in 10 years whatever happens will look like a tiny blip. Actually, I think that was the last crash earlier this year. It crashed, but long term (ha a few months for bitcoin) has shown the stages of a bubble burst and recovery to new heights, like the tech industry stocks today. If you look at them long term, we're higher now than during that bubble.

The market is healthier now and while this may be a bubble, this is uncharted territory. Don't assume anything. But do understand bitcoins utility.

But can be speculated on.

i dont know why ppl compare btc to tulips. tulips cant appreciate, and cant be used for jack shit.