Topic: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power. (Read 7902 times)

Bcp19, you should be ashamed of yourself.  I would remove your posts but D&T has already locked and started a self-moderated thread, leaving your posts makes the necessity of it clear.

Locking.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/estimate-of-asic-pre-orders-13-to-15-phs-diff-18b-to-21b-by-end-of-2013-283820

Then I suggest you do just that... *I* am the only person you have warned even though some others have done pretty much the same.  The difference is THEY are anti-BFL and that is all that matters.  I don't even HAVE a BFL hat on at the moment, but you have pre-judged me and are warning only me.

Take it off thread bcp and read the rules in the OP.  If necessary I will lock and recreate as a self moderated thread.   

You talk as though no other company would have done this.  If you simply open your eyes, you'll see that most of the companies operating at this time are doing the same thing.  Network hash rate is poised to skyrocket... while I will be shouted down since everyone thinks I am a shill and too ignorant to think for myself, I have alarm bells going off over the companies that claim they will guarantee a 90 day RoI.  If the network jumps by a factor of 4-8 over the next 2 months like a lot of people are predicting, that means those companies will have to then increase their product hash rate by that same 4-8 times which will then turn around an put an even bigger strain on the network.  Personally, if *I* wanted to scam people, I'd dangle that 'guaranteed RoI' in people's faces and then vanish in the night a month later.

So, shout me down, call me a shill and a sock-puppet and an ignorant fool... time WILL tell.

I’m wondering if Avalon's contributions are a bit conservative here. In a few articles from TGB, they consider the chips capable of OC’ing to 400 up from the nominal rating of 282 Mh/s.


It may be in error to expect every chip OC’d, but depending upon your intended use with these figures, you may want to account for some potential of higher rates out of Avalon.

http://thegenesisblock.com/latest-shipment-of-avalon-asics-could-increase-network-hashrate-by-500/
http://thegenesisblock.com/800000-avalon-asic-bitcoin-mining-chips-expected-over-next-month/

Also, just wanted to say thank you to D&T and the contributors here for this thread and data. This is an extremely valuable roundup of information that I wish I had a month ago. As this is relevant to every miner and prospective miner, I’d personally like to see this become a sticky thread. I’ve also used some of the data here in a difficulty projector / profit calculator google doc I just began to share.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3033042

I'm very skeptical of the claim that BFL produced 75% of the network increase in the last month. While ASICMiner's share of the network has dropped, I don't think it has dropped as much as it would have had they not been bringing a substantial amount of hashing power online. 100TH has also been coming online for the last month or so, and I think between the two of them they probably make up the bulk of the hash rate increase. It's a good idea to overshoot these estimates for the sake of calculating profitability, but I suspect that the 6-8x multiplier used for the BFL calculations is probably more like a 3-4x.

In either case, it is very clear that BFL has oversold their units well beyond the point of their own customers being profitable even if they were the only ASIC company out there, which is a very shady and nasty thing to do. I just don't see how they will last another generation of ASIC production given this track record. Many have talked about BFL being a scam of one form or another; while I just think it'd be far too elaborate a scam to actually fab chips and put out these products only to cut and run cashing out on their 28nm vaporware, watching them go under before shipping all of their preorders from Gen 1 seems like a real possibility. The effect for customers who lose their preorder money is the same of course...

Avalon dropped the ball with chip supply, BFL are in a position to capitalize on that if they wanted to.

There are already some BFL board projects just waiting on chips to arrive, which will add a reasonable amount to the net hash. I am sure lot's more DIY group buys would form if BFL sold 65nm chips at a competitive price.

I would expect that BFL have a massive markup on their 65nm chips, there is no reason why they couldn't keep selling them at a reduced price, whilst they focus on selling their 28nm product at a premium.

That would be an unknown in the TH/s calculations.

If any of the others are designing their own chips please provide a link and I will update the OP.  I am not familiar with any of them except BTCGARDEN and don't really know the details of that one.

yes I haven't taken into account orders that have been converted from SC to Monarch - although I doubt it's too much, and most of them I expect are post-April orders.

Will

If a mining op is buying rigs from a manufacturer I don't include it in the total (as it is already implied in the ASIC makers total). 

I did it for IceDrill because they have a special deal to buy chips not boards from HF, although in hindsight this probably just adds confusion so I will simply make a note of their purchase and increase HF total.

Will.  Sounds logical enough for me.  With the added note by Syke I am comfortable with 3,000 Thash.

At this point I can't see BFL ordering more 65nm chips given how aggressive 28nm competitors have become.  So I think it is likely they will eventually use all ~3TH/s of 65nm chips.  The fact that they are still advertising 65nm product probably means they are somewhat below that.  Even if people cancel I think all 3 TH/s will be used.  The chips still have value and once the backlog is either shipped or upgreaded if BFL offered 65nm devices in stock w/ next day shipping they could sell them.

This nice thing is this also helps with the Monarch math.  How much 65nm hashing power will the upgrades to Monarch remove?   I think it is plausible now that it is none.  Ultimately all that 65nm tech will be used, even if BFL needs to self mine.

Thanks to both of you.

A while ago they had 75 wafers on order, with 1000 chips per wafer that's around 300 TH/s. Unfortunately they haven't announced ordering any more wafers. They're going to have to order a lot more wafers to reach 4 PH/s.

it's basically a lot of assumptions, which is why it's more of a guesstimate than anything accurate.  Not sure showing my working will help other than to stress how much we don't know about BFL order queue.

I'm assuming that BFL have been 75% of the hashrate delivered in a three month period between June and now.  This is around 100 - 550 which is 450Th and 75% of this is around 330Th.

I'm then looking at the public order list for these months and adding up the Th based on MR orders until the current date for MR (28 July)- 22 orders and only 2/3 minirigs delivered (from Jody's blog they are delivering 500Gh at a time) so 15 * 1.5 = 22.5Th then minirigs form average of 277/(277+36+150) = just over half (60%) the BFL hashrate is minirigs so that's around 40Th (including others) delivered from the public list.

so 40/330 means that the factor of 'hidden' orders is around 6-8 times (depending on the estimate of 75% above).

so now take the total number of orders which is around 500Th and multiply by 6-8 and you get the 3-4Ph that BFL will deliver.

I know it's a TON of guesswork here - which is why I give an error margin of 3-4Ph from BFL.

Will

That is their stated goal and as a shareholder I agree it is necessary, but I am also concerned about the ambitiousness of it.  The recent rise in hashing power above 50 TH/s is a good sign.  If they can get the network stable above 50 TH/s for a couple weeks that would be a good sign they have the power and space to handle the upgrade.  Also I think efficiency gain will be lower than 16x.  If it is say 12x then it becomes even more ambitious.    Still the purpose of the thread is to document planned hashpower increases so I have AsicMiner down for 1,000 TH/s in 2013.

If you can show some links or references I will raise the estimate.  BFL isn't the only one who has been delivering hashpower.  I hated in school when teacher said "show your work" (because I could do it faster in my head), but "show your work".

BFL is likely to be more than 2PH.

The basis for this is taking the amount of hashrate that's been delivered to the network since around June time (when BFL started shipping a lot) and comparing that to the public order list - this gives a 'hidden' order list of around 6x - meaning BFL would be shipping between 3 and 4 Ph.

This estimate doesn't include any 28nm tech

EDIT: FWIW my mining investment decisions are based on a guess that there will be around 16Ph on the network by May 2014.

Will

ASICminer are going to have to get up to 1PH/s by Xmas to remain in the game.

Assuming they can get a 16x power reduction from 110nm to 28nm die reduction, they are going to need a 20x hash rate increase to stay where they are now. That would mean replacing their entire farm with 28nm tech and expanding it by Xmas.

just want to say thanks for the effort that everybody involved in the thread have made to gather this precious information. kudos.