Topic: Guesstimate thread for total ASIC pre-order hashing power. - page 4. (Read 7841 times)

Didn't hashfast partner with icedrill for 250-363th for November? (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfunder-icedrillasic-ipo-235-thash-mining-operation-powered-by-hashfast-269216)
Friedcat, he has more money than anyone, has said he would have a petahash ready for the end of the year. (Looking for source).

So basically, if you have a BFL(really F**Ked) or Avalon order(super F**Ked) or miner(about to be F**ked), you will be paying out of your pocket worse than someone with a Folding farm(or some other form of donated distributed computing) to mine within the next year. Looks peachy.

500 TH/s makes sense to me.  Bitfury capped their Aug sales @ roughly half that.  For startups there is limit on how many orders can be processed in a timely manner.  Even mundane things like assembly, testing, packing and shipping.  BFL with their ~2PH/s obviously doesn't care they won't be able to deliver all thoses orders for some time but buyers are more sophisticated now.  KNC indicated two days in they had sold out of units available in Sept and they haven't indicated that for Oct yes.  So at most two months of orders, 250 TH/s ea.  Yeah that works.

I think it is a good starting point.  I would want something more credible to move it higher.  It gets us within an order of magnitude.  It is highly unlikely they only sold 50 TH/s or 5 PH/s. 

I wish buyers would demand companies provide transparency on units sold (like HashFast did).  New buyers have a right to know how what slice of the pie they are getting, and existing buyers will want to new buyers to know this to dissuade them from buying.  Only the company benefits from hiding the information.

You should put down knc for some starting number and see where the discussion goes from there. 500th can't be an underestimate.

Got a link or breakdown.

BFL: 7PH and rising.

re: Bitfury here in NA

From what I remember Dave (MBP) sold, 300 August 400GH kits and 300x25GH August kits.  About 100 October 400GH kits and 150x25GH October cards and another 150 of H cards each 25GH.
Chips???  I remember rolls of ~3500 chips orders vanishing from the store like candies.  Maybe people on his thread remember the exact number of chips bought. There were some July delivery rolls for $200K+, but I don't remember how many were sold.  Ask Dave...

And then you have European distributor to add to the total.  My guesstimate is around 300TH being added from the initial Bitfury August sales and another 500TH+ for September/October deliveries (those are not realized but I suspect there will be rush to buy once August deliveries ship).

There was a comment somewhere about the factory assembling 500 H-boards a day. Nothing about start date and end date though.

lol?

12.5Th/s of BitFury being assembled per day

The latest spreadsheet out of Avalon says there are at least 970,000 chips ordered.
That is roughly ~250TH/s.

Bitfury has delivered at least 40TH/s but lord knows how many pre-orders they have taken.

Avalon Units (Batch 1, 2 & 3):  

Batch 1 & 2 :  63 Thash

Batch 3:    60 Thash

Avalon Chips:  At least 150 Thash    ~274 Thash

The idea
The purpose is to try to guestimate (and yes that means error) how much hashing power is in "the pipeline".  If there were no pre-orders every unit sold means a unit hashing and then difficulty rises a little and that makes new sales slightly less attractive so sales are slower.  This economic feedback model constrains hashing power to overall network efficiency, electrical cost, exchange rate, the risk premium miners are willing to accept and the time value of money.    There is a reason GPU mining never allowed the the network to reach petahash scale with miners, mining away at massive losses hoping to make it up with future exchange rates.  The problem with preorders is it breaks the feedback model and that is a great thing for hardware vendors; they can sell more hardware, earlier and at higher prices.  You can tell people difficulty will go up but there is a lot of uncertainty in how much and how fast.  That uncertainty favors the vendors.  Not until miners believe there is no profit and stop buying will prices fall.  Accurately projecting growth simply by looking at prior growth is probably an exercise in futility.

So lets look at it from another direction. If you know all pre-orders are X PH/s and you assume they (or most of them) will be delivered over some period of time (say between now and end of year) then you can come up with a more realistic curve for the next couple months.  You know hashrate now and you can project hashrate at the end of the year and then fill in some likely curves.  For that we need an idea of how much hashing power has been presold .  So throw me your cites, guesstimates, and official numbers.

The rules
1) To keep this thread from derailing please leave the "xyz is a scam" for another topic. On edit: I wish I had made this moderated.
2) A good starting point is the total pre-ordered amount.  This is likely unrealistic but we need a starting point.  Later that total can be discounted by the likelihood of fraud (the "coefficient of scamming").
3) If you have a reference or cite (even unofficial) to back up a guestimate please link to it.  If not a reasonable explanation is more useful then just posting a number
4) We can safely assume that all non-ASIC hashrate will go to zero so no need to break it out between delivered and ordered.  Eventually hashrate ~= total pre-orders.
5) No idea/number is bad.  Please be respectful.  Honestly nobody knows except the chip makers and most of them are keeping quiet.

The running total

Promised delivery by December 2013

Post 2013 rollouts






Relationship between difficulty and hashing power

Upper limits on difficulty based on hardware efficiency:
Miners are unlikely to mine when their electrical costs are higher than the value of BTC mined.  This limit can be called the electrical break even point and is based on:
a) the current exchange rate (USD per BTC)
b) the hardware efficiency (J/GH )
c) the miner's electrical rate (USD per kWh)

When hashrate/difficulty gets high enough it will cause the least efficiency miners to idle thus creating a sort of replacement cycle (i.e. x GH/s new efficiency hardware causes Y GH/s of older less efficient hardware to idle).  This should slow growth significantly because the returns on new hardware will be low, miners will be exposed to the bad news of less efficient miners being forced to idle and X GH/s doesn't mean the hashrate only rises by (X-Y)/GH.  It also illustrates the improbability of difficulty power growing exponentially over a long period of time like a year.  For example 65 million difficulty gaining 75% per month for a year results in 50 billion difficulty.  The electrical cost even at 1W/GH and $0.10 per kWh would >$250 per BTC.  

A related thread on the break even point is here:  Break even difficulty by hardware efficiency (power cost = value of BTC)



Alternate view
Here is an alternate visual representation by gkm22d.  I don't agree with all the capacities but I would consider it a worst case scenario (delusional miners may wish to close their eyes as this may be painful)




[1] https://docs.google.com/a/nacrypto.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiLYkKIHJaIsdHpIaGdUOWRYVUdncTNpNlVKbVhCbEE#gid=0  970,000 chips @ 282 MH nominal
[2] 550 orders @ 400 MH nominal
[3] Based on report that Dave (US distributor) sold out of their allocation of 300 full systems and 300 starter systems.  Oct is not sold out but conservatively it will if/when Aug deliveries are made.  I will assume that the EU distributor received an equal allocation (an assumption based on bitfury facing unknown demand and users in both markets).
[4] http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/8577/how-much-asic-power-has-been-or-is-being-shipped-in-2013  Crude assumption based on distribution of wait list (hashing power per order) and number of orders.  2PH/s is guestimated based on (avg GH/s per order of known orders)*(num order numbers)*(1/3 to account for unpaid/test orders).  Monarch is highly unlikely to ship in volume (if at all) in 2013 while upgrades cancel the existing 65nm order which would reduce the amount of 65nm pre-orders.
[5] Guestimate. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2994436
[6] https://bitfunder.com/asset/IceDrill.ASIC
[7] http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=336
[8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
[9] Reduced to 30 full systems in Aug for both US and EU distributors https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3010364
[10] http://www.coindesk.com/cointerra-cuts-price-of-terraminer-iv-bitcoin-mining-rig/ "In Dec" without a specific date can mean as late as 31 DEC.  Given that and the tight schedule and the fact that even a small delay would push it into 2014 I included it in the 2014 group.
[11] https://ghash.io/
[12]HashFast MPP will issue miners up to 4x their initial hashing power if 100% ROI is not acheived within 90 days.  Even if MPP is not needed, HashFast would need the chips in reserve and any chips not paid out in the MPP are likely to be deployed as quickly as possible.
[13] http://www.coindesk.com/bitmine-to-drop-4phs-of-asic-power-onto-bitcoin-network-before-april/
[14] http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-expects-to-deliver-2-phs-of-asics-in-december/ (Numerous references, Cointerra 2PH/s, KNC 0.5 to 2 PH/s, AsicMiner 1 PH/s, Bitfury 0.5 PH/s, Avalon 0.32 PH/s
[15] Upgraded BFL estimate from 2 PH/s to 3 PH/s https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3029092 (see also the next two posts)