Topic: Halving already 100% priced in! Would you buy or sell now? (Read 3186 times)

As for me there cannot be never told about mining that is profitable. If the price of bitcoin will move high normally without doing big jumps and stay there for sure that cannot be told that is profitable. The difficulty cannot be never predicted and it was enough to have two-three big jumps that mining become forever unprofitable for those who have invested in mining (whatever kind of investment may be) before these jumps. To not tell if the price stay unchanged and the difficulty increased. Or even worst the price go down. All these options probable to happen.

As for sell or buy for me is always buy. Even if the price increased buy. This price is to low compared to that in which is hoped that bitcoin arrive. Who believe on that, risk. Who don't, wait. Someone will cry and some another will laugh. Who will be one and who the other one will be known only in the future.

The price has dropped a lot from the recent peak. So the price will rise even if the halving is already priced in.

Yeah, not 100% priced in. Partially priced in perhaps, but not totally. The decreased supply after the halving will have it's full affect in a couple of months after halving day like it did last time. Maybe even sooner due to increased awareness and use of bitcoin compared to last halving. When this is realized and felt, then the pricing in will become closer to the 100% of what the halving should cause.

Halving is not priced in yet...My crystal ball told me this yesterday

The smart money has cost, it will not enter bitcoin 6 months in advance. It will enter may be in March or April.

i will do nothing special about the halving...

Similar to my earlier post, might as well look at the recent litecoin halving too

Litecoin had its first halving on 25 August 2015
https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/litecoin-first-block-reward-halving

Marked here with this orange vertical line on a chart of litecoin versus US$



This is quite different to the first bitcoin halving but in both cases there has been what looks like a large speculative bubble followed by higher price afterwards.

In Litecoin's halving the bubble peaked before the actual halving date and was not enough to approach all time highs in litecoin. Although litecoin normally has its own all time highs roughly in sync with bitcoins movements, this halving occuring at a time when litecoin was already at a very depressed price and bitcoin is still well below its own all time high.

But the essence of my idea remains that the halving may induce a bubble as part of the price discovery mechanism.

the price will surely have to rise a lot more, people will still invest a lot of money into bitcoin like a month ago as they will wait for a huge price increase because of price halving, these investments will surely bump the price upwards the only question is how much it will affect the price

I think the halving is priced in, but that is not to stay it would not move up for other reasons. It held well over the Holidays which is a good sign. I expected it to dip as people spent.

Oops 

Looking at the charts  there is still some action going on.
Although we can't see it with a big price raise, a new resistance is still being tested out.

Now you've ruined it by letting everyone know!

Maybe its priced in for the smart money who already knows about the halving but not for the speculators who hear about it late and jump in when price is already moving up? It then creates a snowball rolling getting bigger where more people jump on at the end just because they see huge gains, this is the bubble forming.

You're talking about only the in view of miners' and their mining costs effectiveness.
But there would be sudden change in supply of bitcoin which will trigger how people will be seeing on bitcoin's future.
We cannot estimate the people's predictions on demand supply conflict, which may lead to a new life time high price also.

remember that the current price is already good for the halving, but this is for now

there are still 7 months before the halving, which mean that plenty of thing will change, but if everything will remain the same by the time that the halving come, diff included

then yes there is no reason for the price to grow to accomodate the halving

Interesting fact: If the current price of bitcoin doubles for the halving then "market cap" will be equal to what it was at the last ATH.

That's because litecoin is a shitcoin, duh.

Quick recap: What you are saying is halving may in fact be priced in, but all sorts of speculation on the halving hasn't. Experience tells us the price increase (or pump) largely happened after the last halving, not before. In any case we will likely see a pump or an overvaluation of the price before the price settles to a probably higher level than the current price. The pump may not be as powerful as it was the first time. I would agree here as well, even guessing halving the reward would take a much longer time to affect the market than it did 4 years ago. We already have 15 of 21 million coins out in the wild. Some believe the pump will catapult Bitcoin into a whole other sphere of 2-3k USD. But say the price rises due to adoption/China/speculation on perceived truth of "block reward halving must have a great effect on price" before, it will most likeky settle significantly higher than what it is now.

So if I want to buy now and have patience to hold it will be a safe mid-term investment (I'm guessing 1 year). We have a few more months left and if I decided to wait a bit longer, there may still be a chance for lower prices before we really go up for good. All things considered we may even have enough time to see another major pump and dump that has nothing to do yet with actual block reward halving market dynamics, but a lot to do with false or premature hopes (short term 6 months), greed due to mass psychology and a general new Bitcoin fuzz due to print and electronic media jumping on the halving band-wagon. The media will do this for sure as the halving is an actual event and they care little about whether users hopes for a new ATH will come true or not.

Except Litecoin only hit 20% of it's ATH!

On the question "is it priced in?" I think a close to real value is priced in. What is not priced in, is speculation on what others speculate. What I mean is that you have speculators that think imminent doubling from whatever price it is, at the time (Speculator-A). Then you have speculators that don't give a rats ass as long as there is movement (Speculator-B) and knowing that others think there will be movement. The latter being the ones who actually move the price later since all the ones that "guarantee" it will go up have already bought. The ones who know there will likely be a pump just because it did last time (Speculator-C) have also front run the halving, effectively removing a large amount of buying force from the event (A + C). Does this mean it will rally, but not as much as most believe? It's hard to say yet, but it's also an event that is similar to a triangle consolidation.. Since we know how it worked out last time, this time should be the same. However, every oscillation weakens from the last because of front running and thereby limiting the remaining driving force.

Speculators A and C are (or will be by the halving) out of the game in that they will provide no measurable pressure for any rise due in part or in full of the halving. Speculator-B will be the ones that actually create the rally based on what they speculate others are doing. This may have a muted effect on any halving rally we get since they aren't going to buy it all the way to $30k so the rest can get rich.

Basically, I agree with af in that the speculative bubble is not actually the pricing in of the halving. The true price is only after the price jump (or lack thereof) and subsequent decline, but I think that this halving will have less effect than the previous one, and will be stronger than the next.

Yeah I agree. It's way too early for a priced in halving imo. There's almost 8 months to go before it happens.
In 4-5 months we can start to argue about that I think if price shouldn't have moved significantly.But not now.