Halving already 100% priced in! Would you buy or sell now? - page 2.

afbitcoins

legendary

Activity: 2101

Merit: 1061

I get puzzled by numerous comments I have seen here and on other threads stating that nothing happened on the last halving!!!! My memory was that bitcoin went wildly bullish during the last halving. In order to remind myself which version is right and satisfy my curiosity I decided to look it up.

The last halving was on 28th Nov 2012 when block reward halved from 50 btc to 25 btc
http://www.prlog.org/12032578-bitcoin-community-celebrates-halving-day.html

I've marked that event on this chart with this orange vertical line

edit: Improved chart

OK it didnt go boom and do a price doubling on that exact day but really look at the price how it was rising to unfathomable new highs just afterwards.

This looks like a massive speculative bubble followed by correction and only eventually after a long time true price starting to be known.

I think next halving is not priced in but again most likely there will be a huge speculative bubble.

Litecoin was similar recently except the speculative bubble was sooner.

My conclusion is that we are likely on the cusp of another huge speculative bubble. Only much later after bubble has deflated will new bitcoin supply be truely priced in.

bitgolden

legendary

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on January 03, 2016, 06:48:34 AM

Quote from: Blue_Tiger73 on January 03, 2016, 06:27:05 AM

When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

Lots of people are like you out there who are buying predicting price to rocket during halving. This is creating strong buying force above 400 so better ride this uptrend, i am also buying or collecting. Cool

I am also currently getting hold of as many coins as I can and am holding till the halving. I just hope it does increase by then so that I can sell them and if it doesn't I'll have to just keep waiting. If it just reaches $600, it would be the right time to sell. Fingers crossed.

~Bitcoin~

legendary

Activity: 994

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Blue_Tiger73 on January 03, 2016, 06:27:05 AM

When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

Lots of people are like you out there who are buying predicting price to rocket during halving. This is creating strong buying force above 400 so better ride this uptrend, i am also buying or collecting. Cool

Blue_Tiger73

member

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When halving comes of course I will sell. I will buy now.

disclaimer201

legendary

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There will be new pumps alright, but mainly because regular users believe the price must go up by this summer. If there are pumps, there will be dumps. Why? Mere mass-psychology.

I started this thread to find out your opinion and the general view seems to be halving is not priced in. SO business as usual, just HODL and sell high.

chesthing

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:44:17 PM

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 09:39:53 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:36:22 PM

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 09:13:33 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:10:11 PM

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

Oh sorry, I thought you were talking about me. Cheesy

My bad.

NP, let's just wait and see - with any luck these losers will miss out on a great pump.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 09:39:53 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:36:22 PM

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 09:13:33 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:10:11 PM

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

Oh sorry, I thought you were talking about me. Cheesy

My bad.

chesthing

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:36:22 PM

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 09:13:33 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:10:11 PM

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

Uh, I was agreeing with you and talking to those whom you are addressing.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 09:13:33 PM

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:10:11 PM

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

Yeah right, we will see how amateur my analysis/prediction is when we are just 1 month away from the actual halving.

chesthing

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: 1Referee on January 02, 2016, 09:10:11 PM

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

What he said, so STFU with your amateur analysis.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

It's too early to say that the block halving is already 100% priced in. You can only say this at least 1 month before the halving. If by that time the price hasn't gone up much higher than current level, then you are spot on. Right now, what you say is nothing more than a rough guess.

abs350

full member

Activity: 481

Merit: 102

Quote from: chesthing on January 02, 2016, 06:46:16 PM

Quote from: abs350 on January 02, 2016, 06:39:46 PM

Yes it is priced in. For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins. Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.

Whats the big deal? its not really a big deal tbh. Its just a freakin block sizing

chesthing

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: abs350 on January 02, 2016, 06:39:46 PM

Yes it is priced in. For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins. Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.

abs350

full member

Activity: 481

Merit: 102

Yes it is priced in. For you guys it wont be but then again you are not holding a lot of coins. Anyone who has a lot of coins will have already done the sums and worked out that it is better to invest now than in 5 years because of the halving. Therefore they will have already bought now instead of waiting. Thats why its already priced in. maybe they bought 1 year ago, 2 years ago, who knows.. But they will have already bought btc with the halving in mind.

The same thing for the block size. Anyone making a big investment will have considered it seriously already.

Believe me just because the miners will be selling less it doesnt mean the price will be going up. Thats not how things work. There are many very intelligent people who have priced in all these factors into their investment decision already. Bitcoin is not an amateurs market there are some whales who are doing most of the trading these days. You guys dont make any difference in the price compared to them.

Also why would u sell now if you believe its priced in?? The fact is that the halving wont make any difference to the price. Its 100% certain it will happen and 100% predicted already. There are other things that are not predicted they are the things that will be moving the price.

chesthing

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: disclaimer201 on January 02, 2016, 06:11:31 PM

I have no hard proof whatsoever. I just found the idea of the entire community thinking we will see a new ATH this year mostly because of the block reward halving unlikely. Mining hasn't had a direct effect on the price for almost four years. It just never worked out the way everyone believed it would all these years. If China buys up coins and gold...that's another story.

Prefacing your thread title with "I believe..." would be a hell of a lot more accurate than stating it as fact. Don't you think? Or do you not care if you are lumped in with the fucktard trolls around here espousing all kinds of bullshit all the time...

disclaimer201

legendary

Activity: 1526

Merit: 1001

I have no hard proof whatsoever. I just found the idea of the entire community thinking we will see a new ATH this year mostly because of the block reward halving unlikely. Mining hasn't had a direct effect on the price for almost four years. It just never worked out the way everyone believed it would all these years. If China buys up coins and gold...that's another story.

mudiko

sr. member

Activity: 321

Merit: 250

I don't get how u can tell that its priced so confident

maokoto

hero member

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✪ NEXCHANGE | BTC, LTC, ETH & DOGE ✪

I expect it to go up more, but am not as convinced as to buy a lot know. So I will keep doing what I usually do: buy then sell about 0.8-1.2 $ higher, while I keep a nice amount just in case it goes up abruptly. If it goes down abruptly instead, I will buy some more.

You may call this strategy "up with caution".

chesthing

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

Quote from: maku on January 02, 2016, 12:15:29 PM

The halving is really weird occurence imo. From logical point of view price of bitcoin should rise significantly (less bitcoin in circulation=more demand=price rise)
But I learned that after previous halvings price always went down (either after 1st bitcoin halving or litecoin halving) Which is rather surprising for me.
So there is a reason why this time should be different?

What do you think that 4x rise the month before the last litecoin halving was? you think that was just coincidental?
And that was with a coin hardly anybody uses or gives a fuck about.
I'd like to know why the OP thinks the bitcoin halving is priced in; to make such a statement he must have reliable data on the 3500 new coins created each day over the last year; what percentage were sold right away and absorbed by the market? what percentage of that number vs the total traded each day? let's see some proof of what you say.

r0ach

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

There's also the factor that if hodlers currently aren't selling, the price probably needs to go higher to make them spend Bitcoins, otherwise they will just buy more until all supply is deleted and then they force it higher.

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