Theymos wrote this in 2020:
Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.
My take: each halving, the supply reduction is less, which means it has a smaller effect on the price. But don't underestimate the power of expectation: if enough people expect something, it can still happen.
My personal expectation (based on the price history, so no guarantees): we'll see a new ATH a year after the next halving.
If you look at the situation from the point of view of bitcoin mining, then each halving cuts the reward per block found by exactly half, therefore, to compensate for the resulting imbalance, the market price of bitcoin must also grow exactly by half, regardless of whether it is the second halving or the fifth. Of course, this is an overly simplified understanding of the issue, given the fluctuations in the hash rate in the network, the uneven production cost in different regions of the globe, and a bunch of other factors. But talking about the fair market price of bitcoin cannot be conducted without taking into account the interests of the miners who maintain the stable performance of the bitcoin network.
By the way, the current price of bitcoin looks quite fair from this point of view - if you add up the cost of bitcoin mining in the United States (and the United States is number one in the world in terms of bitcoin hashrate) plus a reasonable rate of return for mining companies, taking into account equipment depreciation.
