it wont be until august or so that we will get a noticeable effect from the halving, so no, the halving has not yet begun.
That could be the reason why the bitcoin price is still so low. There is no pump of the price recently.
the halving has of course not begun...but the halving effect is behind us...
For people who read threads here, there is talking about how price of bitcoin is already doubled for upcoming halving. I think its high possibility for that to be truth. And if price is already doubled I don't think we can see some big rise, what is logical.
Normally we can expect some nice surprise, and we can try to predict that. if its happen it will be in August or September, months after halving. I don't think its impossible to see some spike over 1000 $. Chances for that are low, I know that, but it doesn't stop me to believe in that.
We will see exactly when time comes, for now I still think that btc will rise above 600 $ in next few months.
the price rises may in part have been due to the halving, and let me explain why.
Let's suppose most people expect the price to rise after the halving, and therefore they don't want to sell now. So they keep their bitcoins and wait for later (at least as long as they can afford to, some miners for example need to pay their electricity bills and such, so they can't keep all of their coins). The fact that many people hoard means that the supply is already lower than it would be if people did not hoard.
Just after the halving, people might lose their patience (or lose confidence in the fact that the price will rise) and sell some coins. This might cause a sudden burst in supply, and therefore a reduction in price (for a short while, until supply dries up).
however, this does not mean that the halving is priced in, because no matter how much bitcoin is hoarded, bitcoin will become more scarce in a few months. And this effect will be noticeable. Not immediately after the halving, but a few months after the halving. And that is when I expect the price to skyrocket (probably somewhere in the low 5 digits).
A while after the halving, the price will find a new equilibrium point where the supply meets the demand, since we can assume the demand to be roughly the same, but the supply to be lower (given enough time the saved up supply will run out), and therefore the equilibrium point would be at a higher price point.
How much higher is hard to predict, but if i had to guess i'd say the equilibrium would be at least somewhere around $5000. Although we will most likely overshoot at first and go in the range of say $15000 at first.