Halving = Less Miners = Slower Transactions

serjent05

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Quote from: pandalion98 on July 12, 2016, 11:13:50 AM

Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

Absolutely not. That's how Bitcoin is designed. It tries to space out the block to once every roughly 10 minutes.

If there are less miners, difficulty would simply go down. It won't slow down anything, except for the last high-difficulty block. Blocks would still be generated on-schedule.

First i don't think the halving will end badly, as a matter of fact there is one large company who plan to add another 10 pentahash of mining power. Second, if miners is about to stop or let half of them, it is true that the time to solve the next block for the current difficulty will be doubled but the next block will certainly adjust to the current number of miners making the block generation normal. So basically the hiccup for a sudden decrease in mining power will be temporary.

pandalion98

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Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

Absolutely not. That's how Bitcoin is designed. It tries to space out the block to once every roughly 10 minutes.

If there are less miners, difficulty would simply go down. It won't slow down anything, except for the last high-difficulty block. Blocks would still be generated on-schedule.

Laosai

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Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

Miners wouldn't invest so much...

The main point is that Difficulty is here to balance everything. If less mining power, less difficulty, hence easier tomine...

ObscureBean

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Sure their profits have been cut in half but the price increase we've experienced over the past few weeks would've made the halving a little easier to swallow. And if they are able to hold out for long enough, it's likely they'll see the price gradually go up. The halving would've been a serious issue if we were still hovering between 200 - 300 USD.

Divinespark

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Well, the hash rate has remained fairly stable. The data is mixed at this point. You may be proven right eventually but not clearcut imho.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

iv4n

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I didn't notice that transactions are slower, with me everything is better then ever. Why people always imagine worse thing that can happen?
Less miners means that miners that stay will make more money. I believe everything will be ok, just let the time pass. Situation is good now, but I think we will see progress in next few months and some little price increase.

Betwrong

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Quote from: LordCoder on July 09, 2016, 09:43:37 AM

If there are less miners, difficulty decreases and thus increasing profit. It's an endless cycle.

Exactly. If only a few miners left they will be rewarded big so no reason for them to leave the game. And that's the beauty of it, it can't be stopped.

Soros Shorts

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Quote from: kryptqnick on July 12, 2016, 03:48:17 AM

Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

I think they can't really do the math or hope that some day btc will increase and they'll have a lot more money than they spend on electricity now.

Even after the block halving, the current AntMiner S9's are making more BTC than the electricity they use even in the areas with more expensive electric rates. There is no reason why people who already have bought S9's are going to shut down any time soon.

And if you look at the network hashrate since the halving it has not dropped one bit. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

kryptqnick

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Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

I think they can't really do the math or hope that some day btc will increase and they'll have a lot more money than they spend on electricity now.

1Referee

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Quote from: Laosai on July 09, 2016, 11:54:19 AM

Quote from: cr1776 on July 09, 2016, 11:49:46 AM

Yes, there was a lot of FUD leading up to November 2012. Pretty much like now %-wise, and probably like spring of 2020 will be. Now that we are into the next 12.5 BTC era, we'll see what happens.

The advantage now is that we're nearing the end of the asic order of magnitude increases like there have been for nearly 4 years and will be back to growth in line with user growth and regular silicon improvements in the next year or so which should help to let more people mine and decrease consolidation.

I hope so.
Yeah btc sudden rise is cool like hell.
But the main problem is that instability is NOT a good thing for a currency.
BTC assets are cool but the high volatility isn't attractive...

Volatility is the main thing traders are looking for. So in fact, volatility is attractive. Without this much volatility I am quite sure that people wouldn't be as interested in investing their money into Bitcoin as they have been so far. It allows the market to have a healthy influx of incomming fresh money.

CoinBreader

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Quote from: TKeenan on July 09, 2016, 10:03:29 AM

Clearly another moron. Even if we only have two miners, blocks go every 10 minutes.
[/quote]

Im living for the moment that we will go back to USB miners ^^ and the payout will be like faucet! Cheesy

or maybe not (dead till then xD )

Laosai

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Quote from: cr1776 on July 09, 2016, 11:49:46 AM

Yes, there was a lot of FUD leading up to November 2012. Pretty much like now %-wise, and probably like spring of 2020 will be. Now that we are into the next 12.5 BTC era, we'll see what happens.

The advantage now is that we're nearing the end of the asic order of magnitude increases like there have been for nearly 4 years and will be back to growth in line with user growth and regular silicon improvements in the next year or so which should help to let more people mine and decrease consolidation.

I hope so.
Yeah btc sudden rise is cool like hell.
But the main problem is that instability is NOT a good thing for a currency.
BTC assets are cool but the high volatility isn't attractive...

cr1776

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Yes, there was a lot of FUD leading up to November 2012. Pretty much like now %-wise, and probably like spring of 2020 will be. Now that we are into the next reward era (as of seconds ago), we'll see what happens.

The advantage now is that we're nearing the end of the asic order of magnitude increases like there have been for nearly 4 years and will be back to growth in line with user growth and regular silicon improvements in the next year or so which should help to let more people mine and decrease consolidation.

Quote from: helloeverybody on July 09, 2016, 09:59:14 AM

A question to the older members here would be to ask if there was this much worry and fud in the last halving? Surely back then miners where in the same situation that if we never got a price rise then it would become unprofitable to continue to mine and miners would drop out left right and centre. yet we are at another block halving and miners are still doing their thing.

Bitcoinstalker.com

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Quote from: ?? on ??

There's no reason bitcoin transaction would be slower just because there's less miners as long as the big pool/miners still use hardware and internet which are strong enough to manage bitcoin network.

It takes time for the difficulty to adjust. See bold.

Quote from: Bitcoinstalker.com on July 09, 2016, 11:11:11 AM

When miners go offline, hashrate goes down, blocks will take longer to solve, and transactions take longer to confirm. This will be compensated for at the next difficulty adjustment, which will happen after 2016 blocks are solved. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

If you want the boring stuff, some more details:
1. Miners don't have to include your transaction, so if you didn't include a high enough tx fee, or they simply don't feel like it, your tx won't be included in the next solved block.
2. Difficulty is not adjusted continuously, but only once every 2016 blocks. If enough miners go offline at once, the difficulty doesn't immediately go down. see my previous post.

TL:DR: if half the hashpower goes offline, it would take ~20, instead of ~10 minutes, to solve a block.
At that rate, the next difficulty adjustment will happen in (20 * 2016) = 40320 minutes, or 672 hours, or 28 days.
It's unlikely that half of the miners will go offline tho, but, if everyone is mining at the edge of profitability, it's possible that *more* than half would. Unlikely, but possible.

phil9

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Bitcoinstalker.com

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Quote from: TKeenan on July 09, 2016, 11:21:41 AM

Quote from: Bitcoinstalker.com on July 09, 2016, 11:01:39 AM

Quote from: TKeenan on July 09, 2016, 10:48:20 AM

Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 10:05:35 AM

Bottom line is halving is not going to be good news, just watch how the transactions slow down folks
Slow transactions = scares people away

So stupid - it hurts. Before halving, we have 6MB of transactions every hour. After halving, we have 6 MB of transactions every hour.

Where is the slowing?

Could you be more stupid?

ELY5:
The transactions are only confirmed when a block is solved.
At current difficulty, with two miners, the transactions will never get confirmed.
Because a block will never be solved.
Because, with just two miners hashing, it would take many years to solve a block.
You ignorant cunt

"at current difficulty" - no. nobody said that. Difficulty is dynamic. It goes down too.

You are confused totally. Such a moron.

Quote from: Bitcoinstalker.com on July 09, 2016, 11:11:11 AM

When miners go offline, hashrate goes down, blocks will take longer to solve, and transactions take longer to confirm. This will be compensated for at the next difficulty adjustment, which will happen after 2016 blocks are solved. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

You're angry, my special friend. People are dumping hard & you're gonna get margin called.
I get it, I'd be shitting myself too if I went long.
Cheer up, your money isn't lost. It merely moved to smarter hands. Bitch

craked5

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Quote from: jtipt on July 09, 2016, 11:39:03 AM

Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

Yes the transactions may be slower but if the miners are less each miner will get more reward

No the transactions will be exactly as fast as before!

Stop spreading FUD guys, this not how btc works Oo

jtipt

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Quote from: vodaljepa on July 09, 2016, 09:37:18 AM

Why would miners invest so much into electricity for half the reward? I see this ending badly

Yes the transactions may be slower but if the miners are less each miner will get more reward

TKeenan

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Quote from: craked5 on July 09, 2016, 11:36:09 AM

From what I know there is litterally 0 link between number of miners and how fast tx are done.

Less miners mean lower difficulty that's all!

That is because you know what you are talking about. The others around here, not so much. A lot of people with ZERO brains at all. Bitcoin somehow attracts beggars, thieves and morons. It is strange.

elviselvis101

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3 blocks.....

Topic: Halving = Less Miners = Slower Transactions (Read 1977 times)