Hardly any 'bubble' talk this time - page 3.

Xiaoma

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Quote from: Gordonium on October 22, 2013, 01:06:08 AM

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think this is not true...

We had a jump $140 to $200 in about 24 hours, and then another jump again $200 to $260 (and back to $60) in another 24 hours. It was definitely much slower in the weeks and months before that. Now we moved $155 to $195 in about 24 hours, that is definitely not normal growth. The only moments bitcoin had this growth EVER was during the bubbles. (excluding dead cat bounce after a massive crash)

If you compare side by side the April bubble with the current one, you can clearly see where we are. This speed of growth $140 to $200 is pretty much the same as the part of the previous bubble from $60 to $120. What happened next was a mad jump doubling again $120 to $240 in . If this is any similar we can see price skyrocket to over $300 or $350 in the next couple days, then badly crash, probably to $100 or so.

I suppose, if price is rising $200 to $250 in more than a week or so, then we are almost safe, and the bubble may touch $500 as you say, but that is when it burst, not when we "begin to talk about bubble", as we are just in the middle of one.

mp420

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Quote from: scarsbergholden on October 22, 2013, 12:53:44 AM

Quote from: mp420 on October 21, 2013, 11:40:26 PM

We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

what are your thoughts for key support levels?

No idea. I think on a market like this they can be identified only after the fact.

Nemo1024

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Buying back in now is a pretty risky/stupid move. You might end up like this guy:

The smart squirrels are waiting for the bulls and bears to finish shaking the nut bush so as to pick up the fallen nuts. Grin

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

It's because all the bears are buying back in...

scarsbergholden

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Quote from: TERA on October 22, 2013, 01:08:38 AM

Quote from: Gordonium on October 22, 2013, 01:06:08 AM

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think the "bubbling" is not neccessarily the amount of price increase but what can be seen in the bid depth and the lack of capitulation moves and tested support levels. It is just nonstop buying (hence 'overbought') and way up in the bollinger band.

my thinking as well. i don't buy this "price has to be n times the previous bubble top to mention it" thinking.

TERA

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Quote from: Gordonium on October 22, 2013, 01:06:08 AM

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think the "bubbling" is not neccessarily the amount of price increase but what can be seen in the bid depth and the lack of capitulation moves and tested support levels. It is just nonstop buying (hence 'overbought') and way up in the bollinger band. Just think with a $60 movement, $700M market cap has been added. Has $700M been invested?

Gordonium

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That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

annette786

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Quote from: TheJuice on October 21, 2013, 10:29:37 PM

Quote from: Elwar on October 21, 2013, 10:24:37 PM

Quote from: TheJuice on October 21, 2013, 10:18:24 PM

This rally/bubble seems to be china-driven.

Makes sense. We are just along for the ride on this one.

You can scream bubble bubble at all of us and we could even agree, but it would not affect the price.

I also think we are seeing casual/hobby mining dying. Very little BTC is being pumped into these companies anymore - the entire summer the mining industry was a suck for BTCs (which then had to be converted to fiat). Now that the ASIC fiasco is winding down and people are realizing its better to buy-hold than speculate on mining we are seeing an increase in price. Very little movement out of BTCs.

Another way to look at it is, the extreme cost of mining discourages miners from selling at lower prices.

scarsbergholden

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Quote from: mp420 on October 21, 2013, 11:40:26 PM

We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

what are your thoughts for key support levels?

mp420

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We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

sidhujag

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might be at a top here

freequant

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Quote from: kingcrimson on October 21, 2013, 08:07:23 PM

Remember the bubble earlier this year, it was an all out war of bears vs bulls, with many people calling a bubble. This time we are hitting $200 and there isn't much debate. Thoughts?

OMG, it's a bubble!! Shocked

Sell! Sell! Sell!

(happy?)

byronbb

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HODL OR DIE

Bears are embarrassed. But I am sure if we go down to 175 Blitz and ElectricMucus will make 400 posts about how smart they are.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: scarsbergholden on October 21, 2013, 10:43:46 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on October 21, 2013, 10:43:18 PM

Quote from: scarsbergholden on October 21, 2013, 10:41:23 PM

Quote from: TERA on October 21, 2013, 10:34:25 PM

Yeah I really don't like this parabolic movement at all. I can't get any sleep. I would much prefer a slow linearish rise of 1% per day, all the way to $5000.

no sleep here either Undecided

we're deff in bubble territory considering btc has only ever been this high in value for one day, give or take some hours

How does that make it a bubble? The opposite also isn't true. Bubbles can only be identified ex post facto

ok see you at the bottom Cool

Sure. I'll ride this thing wherever it goes Cool

scarsbergholden

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Quote from: wachtwoord on October 21, 2013, 10:43:18 PM

Quote from: scarsbergholden on October 21, 2013, 10:41:23 PM

Quote from: TERA on October 21, 2013, 10:34:25 PM

Yeah I really don't like this parabolic movement at all. I can't get any sleep. I would much prefer a slow linearish rise of 1% per day, all the way to $5000.

no sleep here either Undecided

we're deff in bubble territory considering btc has only ever been this high in value for one day, give or take some hours

How does that make it a bubble? The opposite also isn't true. Bubbles can only be identified ex post facto

ok see you at the bottom Cool

wachtwoord

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Quote from: scarsbergholden on October 21, 2013, 10:41:23 PM

Quote from: TERA on October 21, 2013, 10:34:25 PM

Yeah I really don't like this parabolic movement at all. I can't get any sleep. I would much prefer a slow linearish rise of 1% per day, all the way to $5000.

no sleep here either Undecided

we're deff in bubble territory considering btc has only ever been this high in value for one day, give or take some hours

How does that make it a bubble? The opposite also isn't true. Bubbles can only be identified ex post facto

scarsbergholden

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Quote from: TERA on October 21, 2013, 10:34:25 PM

Yeah I really don't like this parabolic movement at all. I can't get any sleep. I would much prefer a slow linearish rise of 1% per day, all the way to $5000.

no sleep here either Undecided

we're deff in bubble territory considering btc has only ever been this high in value for one day, give or take some hours

TERA

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Yeah I really don't like this parabolic movement at all. I can't get any sleep. I would much prefer a slow linearish rise of 1% per day, all the way to $5000.

emanymton

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I think it goes without saying we are witnessing a bubble. I think most of us have seen this several times before.

TheJuice

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Quote from: Elwar on October 21, 2013, 10:24:37 PM

Quote from: TheJuice on October 21, 2013, 10:18:24 PM

This rally/bubble seems to be china-driven.

Makes sense. We are just along for the ride on this one.

You can scream bubble bubble at all of us and we could even agree, but it would not affect the price.

I also think we are seeing casual/hobby mining dying. Very little BTC is being pumped into these companies anymore - the entire summer the mining industry was a suck for BTCs (which then had to be converted to fiat). Now that the ASIC fiasco is winding down and people are realizing its better to buy-hold than speculate on mining we are seeing an increase in price. Very little movement out of BTCs.

Topic: Hardly any 'bubble' talk this time - page 3. (Read 4999 times)